| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.95684880643864 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 4177 | 4297 | -120 |
| 4 | 4117 | 4176.17814322736 | -59.1781432273629 |
| 5 | 4065 | 4113.55360751301 | -48.5536075130058 |
| 6 | 3983 | 4061.0951461159 | -78.0951461158961 |
| 7 | 4091 | 3980.36989876625 | 110.63010123375 |
| 8 | 4067 | 4080.22617908795 | -13.2261790879497 |
| 9 | 4024 | 4061.5707254139 | -37.5707254139015 |
| 10 | 3868 | 4019.62122164458 | -151.621221644576 |
| 11 | 3800 | 3868.54263668319 | -68.5426366831948 |
| 12 | 3804 | 3796.95769658272 | 7.04230341727725 |
| 13 | 3862 | 3797.69611620212 | 64.3038837978766 |
| 14 | 3792 | 3853.22521066349 | -61.2252106634905 |
| 15 | 3674 | 3788.64194091618 | -114.641940916175 |
| 16 | 3560 | 3672.94693658272 | -112.946936582724 |
| 17 | 3489 | 3558.87379512264 | -69.873795122644 |
| 18 | 3412 | 3486.0151376582 | -74.0151376582039 |
| 19 | 3674 | 3409.19384153156 | 264.80615846844 |
| 20 | 3672 | 3656.57329819969 | 15.426701800312 |
| 21 | 3463 | 3665.3343194046 | -202.334319404602 |
| 22 | 3429 | 3465.73096738073 | -36.730967380734 |
| 23 | 3400 | 3424.58498508314 | -24.5849850831419 |
| 24 | 3533 | 3395.06087145003 | 137.939128549974 |
| 25 | 3578 | 3521.04776196425 | 56.9522380357453 |
| 26 | 3544 | 3569.54244295277 | -25.542442952767 |
| 27 | 3435 | 3539.10218689989 | -104.102186899885 |
| 28 | 3352 | 3433.49213361708 | -81.4921336170778 |
| 29 | 3213 | 3349.51648283144 | -136.516482831439 |
| 30 | 3235 | 3212.89084917498 | 22.1091508250247 |
| 31 | 3460 | 3228.04596375327 | 231.954036246728 |
| 32 | 3385 | 3443.99090648458 | -58.9909064845788 |
| 33 | 3283 | 3381.54552802408 | -98.5455280240762 |
| 34 | 3295 | 3281.25235715437 | 13.7476428456266 |
| 35 | 3331 | 3288.40677280256 | 42.5932271974439 |
| 36 | 3520 | 3323.1620514088 | 196.8379485912 |
| 37 | 3668 | 3505.50620758012 | 162.49379241988 |
| 38 | 3714 | 3654.98819891077 | 59.0118010892297 |
| 39 | 3691 | 3705.45357034879 | -14.4535703487941 |
| 40 | 3604 | 3685.62368881177 | -81.6236888117737 |
| 41 | 3581 | 3601.52215959511 | -20.5221595951089 |
| 42 | 3675 | 3575.88555568099 | 99.1144443190142 |
| 43 | 3833 | 3664.72309342846 | 168.276906571537 |
| 44 | 3810 | 3819.73865063262 | -9.73865063262474 |
| 45 | 3663 | 3804.42023439847 | -141.420234398475 |
| 46 | 3704 | 3663.10245190802 | 40.8975480919785 |
| 47 | 3810 | 3696.2352219861 | 113.764778013902 |
| 48 | 4053 | 3799.09091404346 | 253.909085956543 |
| 49 | 4152 | 4036.0435198849 | 115.956480115099 |
| 50 | 4139 | 4140.99633948186 | -1.99633948185965 |
| 51 | 4055 | 4133.0861444314 | -78.086144431396 |
| 52 | 3928 | 4052.36951033282 | -124.36951033282 |
| 53 | 3821 | 3927.3666928135 | -106.366692813503 |
| 54 | 3811 | 3819.58984975008 | -8.58984975007706 |
| 55 | 3999 | 3805.37066226923 | 193.629337730772 |
| 56 | 3954 | 3984.64466296842 | -30.6446629684215 |
| 57 | 3724 | 3949.32235378337 | -225.322353783373 |
| 58 | 3731 | 3727.72292850181 | 3.27707149819253 |
| 59 | 3697 | 3724.85859045347 | -27.8585904534671 |
| 60 | 3818 | 3692.202131429 | 125.797868570996 |
| 61 | 3897 | 3806.57167182369 | 90.4283281763137 |
| 62 | 3888 | 3887.09790970743 | 0.902090292566299 |
| 63 | 3754 | 3881.96107372718 | -127.961073727176 |
| 64 | 3647 | 3753.52167306072 | -106.521673060721 |
| 65 | 3564 | 3645.59653733272 | -81.5965373327231 |
| 66 | 3498 | 3561.52098797638 | -63.5209879763811 |
| 67 | 3704 | 3494.74100644738 | 209.258993552623 |
| 68 | 3678 | 3688.97022466476 | -10.9702246647553 |
| 69 | 3599 | 3672.47337828792 | -73.4733782879202 |
| 70 | 3507 | 3596.17046396811 | -89.1704639681093 |
| 71 | 3484 | 3504.84781195064 | -20.847811950644 |
| 72 | 2612 | 3478.89960796881 | -866.899607968813 |
| 73 | 2926 | 2643.40775278173 | 282.592247218271 |
| 74 | 2918 | 2907.80580724134 | 10.1941927586554 |
| 75 | 2833 | 2911.56010841507 | -78.5601084150694 |
| 76 | 2791 | 2830.38996244442 | -39.3899624444202 |
| 77 | 2762 | 2786.69972389381 | -24.6997238938138 |
| 78 | 2728 | 2757.06582256665 | -29.0658225666543 |
| 79 | 2831 | 2723.25422493559 | 107.745775064406 |
| 80 | 2839 | 2820.35064120478 | 18.6493587952232 |
| 81 | 2775 | 2832.19525790883 | -57.195257908832 |
| 82 | 2540 | 2771.46804364482 | -231.468043644816 |
| 83 | 2625 | 2543.98812235459 | 81.0118776454133 |
| 84 | 2669 | 2615.50424078695 | 53.4957592130463 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 2660.69159413949 | 2374.66645340243 | 2946.71673487655 |
| 86 | 2654.69159413949 | 2258.8220902618 | 3050.56109801717 |
| 87 | 2648.69159413949 | 2167.42768829668 | 3129.95549998229 |
| 88 | 2642.69159413949 | 2089.05161181001 | 3196.33157646896 |
| 89 | 2636.69159413949 | 2019.09989001735 | 3254.28329826162 |
| 90 | 2630.69159413949 | 1955.1756461655 | 3306.20754211347 |
| 91 | 2624.69159413949 | 1895.84038920538 | 3353.5427990736 |
| 92 | 2618.69159413949 | 1840.15041867051 | 3397.23276960846 |
| 93 | 2612.69159413949 | 1787.44699714577 | 3437.9361911332 |
| 94 | 2606.69159413949 | 1737.24871054446 | 3476.13447773451 |
| 95 | 2600.69159413949 | 1689.1910670959 | 3512.19212118307 |
| 96 | 2594.69159413949 | 1642.99022618447 | 3546.3929620945 |
