Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.884388798124206 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 10.98 | 10.92 | 0.0600000000000005 |
3 | 11.15 | 10.9730633278875 | 0.176936672112548 |
4 | 11.19 | 11.1295441386812 | 0.0604558613188342 |
5 | 11.33 | 11.1830106252125 | 0.146989374787507 |
6 | 11.38 | 11.3130063817178 | 0.0669936182821562 |
7 | 11.4 | 11.3722547872724 | 0.0277452127276074 |
8 | 11.45 | 11.3967923426103 | 0.0532076573897378 |
9 | 11.56 | 11.4438485987802 | 0.116151401219824 |
10 | 11.61 | 11.5465715969054 | 0.06342840309458 |
11 | 11.82 | 11.6026669660852 | 0.217333033914828 |
12 | 11.77 | 11.7948738667418 | -0.0248738667417943 |
13 | 11.85 | 11.7728756976293 | 0.0771243023706827 |
14 | 11.82 | 11.8410835667091 | -0.0210835667090929 |
15 | 11.92 | 11.8224374964871 | 0.0975625035129326 |
16 | 11.86 | 11.9087206817109 | -0.0487206817108596 |
17 | 11.87 | 11.8656326565688 | 0.00436734343120015 |
18 | 11.94 | 11.8694950861769 | 0.0705049138230862 |
19 | 11.86 | 11.9318488421748 | -0.071848842174763 |
20 | 11.92 | 11.8683065309972 | 0.0516934690027924 |
21 | 11.83 | 11.9140236559195 | -0.0840236559194576 |
22 | 11.91 | 11.8397140758468 | 0.0702859241531542 |
23 | 11.93 | 11.9018741598337 | 0.0281258401662967 |
24 | 11.99 | 11.9267483378146 | 0.063251662185392 |
25 | 11.96 | 11.9826873993141 | -0.0226873993141048 |
26 | 12.12 | 11.9626229175021 | 0.15737708249786 |
27 | 11.85 | 12.1018054463447 | -0.251805446344717 |
28 | 12.01 | 11.8791115302908 | 0.130888469709216 |
29 | 12.1 | 11.9948678267052 | 0.105132173294766 |
30 | 12.21 | 12.0878455430896 | 0.122154456910424 |
31 | 12.31 | 12.1958775764221 | 0.114122423577898 |
32 | 12.31 | 12.2968061694492 | 0.0131938305508186 |
33 | 12.39 | 12.3084746453927 | 0.0815253546073258 |
34 | 12.35 | 12.3805747557705 | -0.0305747557704983 |
35 | 12.41 | 12.3535347842617 | 0.0564652157383136 |
36 | 12.51 | 12.4034719885443 | 0.106528011455682 |
37 | 12.27 | 12.4976841685622 | -0.22768416856217 |
38 | 12.51 | 12.2963228403756 | 0.213677159624437 |
39 | 12.44 | 12.4852965267624 | -0.0452965267624137 |
40 | 12.47 | 12.4452367858998 | 0.024763214100199 |
41 | 12.51 | 12.4671370950556 | 0.04286290494443 |
42 | 12.58 | 12.5050445680435 | 0.0749554319565142 |
43 | 12.5 | 12.5713343124244 | -0.0713343124243888 |
44 | 12.52 | 12.5082470455944 | 0.0117529544056332 |
45 | 12.59 | 12.5186412268156 | 0.0713587731844267 |
46 | 12.51 | 12.5817501264678 | -0.0717501264677658 |
47 | 12.67 | 12.5182951183557 | 0.151704881644321 |
48 | 12.64 | 12.6524612163027 | -0.0124612163026736 |
49 | 12.54 | 12.6414406561936 | -0.101440656193589 |
50 | 12.6 | 12.5517276761816 | 0.0482723238183898 |
51 | 12.67 | 12.594419178626 | 0.0755808213739826 |
52 | 12.62 | 12.6612620104022 | -0.0412620104021943 |
53 | 12.72 | 12.6247703506144 | 0.0952296493855922 |
54 | 12.85 | 12.7089903857803 | 0.141009614219678 |
55 | 12.85 | 12.833697709024 | 0.0163022909759789 |
56 | 12.82 | 12.8481152725469 | -0.0281152725469376 |
57 | 12.79 | 12.8232504404502 | -0.0332504404502174 |
58 | 12.94 | 12.7938441233833 | 0.146155876616652 |
59 | 12.71 | 12.9231027434431 | -0.213102743443137 |
60 | 12.56 | 12.7346370642925 | -0.17463706429249 |
61 | 12.64 | 12.5801900008949 | 0.0598099991050844 |
62 | 12.7 | 12.6330852941193 | 0.0669147058807269 |
63 | 12.74 | 12.69226391043 | 0.0477360895700372 |
64 | 12.85 | 12.734481173312 | 0.115518826688042 |
65 | 12.84 | 12.8366447296073 | 0.0033552703926869 |
66 | 12.83 | 12.8396120931573 | -0.0096120931572834 |
67 | 12.88 | 12.8311112656425 | 0.0488887343575453 |
68 | 13.07 | 12.8743479146627 | 0.195652085337262 |
69 | 12.99 | 13.0473804272647 | -0.0573804272646541 |
70 | 13.2 | 12.9966338201602 | 0.203366179839787 |
71 | 13.23 | 13.1764885915278 | 0.0535114084721684 |
72 | 13.18 | 13.2238134817525 | -0.0438134817524674 |
73 | 13.18 | 13.1850653292838 | -0.00506532928376657 |
74 | 13.1 | 13.1805856088064 | -0.080585608806393 |
75 | 13.23 | 13.109316599088 | 0.120683400912002 |
76 | 13.33 | 13.2160476469741 | 0.113952353025894 |
77 | 13.38 | 13.3168258315101 | 0.0631741684898994 |
78 | 13.26 | 13.3726963584534 | -0.11269635845338 |
79 | 13.17 | 13.2730289614478 | -0.103028961447821 |
80 | 13.27 | 13.181911302061 | 0.0880886979390016 |
81 | 13.47 | 13.2598159597596 | 0.210184040240403 |
82 | 13.63 | 13.4457003704927 | 0.184299629507302 |
83 | 13.64 | 13.6086928983274 | 0.0313071016726028 |
84 | 13.69 | 13.6363805483484 | 0.0536194516516169 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.4913422855181 | 13.8762596959832 |
86 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.4268744906744 | 13.9407274908268 |
87 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.3756093301513 | 13.99199265135 |
88 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.3317314338665 | 14.0358705476348 |
89 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.2927462041718 | 14.0748557773294 |
90 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.2573098192971 | 14.1102921622042 |
91 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.2245999535682 | 14.143002027933 |
92 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.1940699770595 | 14.1735320044418 |
93 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.1653346572317 | 14.2022673242696 |
94 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.1381104078979 | 14.2294915736034 |
95 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.1121812872451 | 14.2554206942562 |
96 | 13.6838009907506 | 13.0873783564908 | 14.2802236250104 |