Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.106401285899114 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 123.07 | 124.79 | -1.72 |
4 | 119.52 | 121.876989788254 | -2.35698978825351 |
5 | 118.03 | 118.076203043932 | -0.0462030439322518 |
6 | 117.27 | 116.581286980645 | 0.68871301935458 |
7 | 117.27 | 115.89456693152 | 1.37543306847979 |
8 | 116.69 | 116.040914778675 | 0.649085221325379 |
9 | 115.38 | 115.529978280882 | -0.149978280881754 |
10 | 114.31 | 114.204020398939 | 0.105979601061009 |
11 | 113.33 | 113.145296764771 | 0.184703235229037 |
12 | 111.79 | 112.184949426509 | -0.394949426509044 |
13 | 111.79 | 110.602926299663 | 1.18707370033663 |
14 | 110.92 | 110.729232467836 | 0.190767532163775 |
15 | 109.37 | 109.879530378566 | -0.50953037856624 |
16 | 107.04 | 108.275315691082 | -1.23531569108214 |
17 | 104.72 | 105.81387651306 | -1.09387651305964 |
18 | 104.14 | 103.377486645455 | 0.762513354544751 |
19 | 104.14 | 102.878619046894 | 1.26138095310594 |
20 | 102.95 | 103.012831602313 | -0.0628316023131816 |
21 | 102.13 | 101.816146239032 | 0.31385376096803 |
22 | 101.01 | 101.029540682783 | -0.0195406827832159 |
23 | 100.07 | 99.9074615290078 | 0.162538470992232 |
24 | 99.4 | 98.9847558313294 | 0.415244168670611 |
25 | 99.4 | 98.3589383448381 | 1.04106165516194 |
26 | 99.34 | 98.4697086436476 | 0.870291356352439 |
27 | 97.72 | 98.5023087630703 | -0.782308763070347 |
28 | 96.26 | 96.7990701047095 | -0.539070104709495 |
29 | 95.77 | 95.2817123523786 | 0.488287647621348 |
30 | 95.04 | 94.8436667859742 | 0.196333214025799 |
31 | 95.04 | 94.1345568924113 | 0.905443107588738 |
32 | 94.55 | 94.2308972033672 | 0.319102796632791 |
33 | 94 | 93.7748501512629 | 0.225149848737075 |
34 | 93.14 | 93.2488063846885 | -0.108806384688549 |
35 | 91.21 | 92.3772292454436 | -1.16722924544365 |
36 | 90.3 | 90.3230345527894 | -0.0230345527893832 |
37 | 90.3 | 89.4105836467525 | 0.889416353247512 |
38 | 89.74 | 89.5052186904377 | 0.23478130956228 |
39 | 89.07 | 88.9701997236802 | 0.099800276319769 |
40 | 89.06 | 88.3108186014137 | 0.749181398586273 |
41 | 88.97 | 88.380532465595 | 0.589467534404974 |
42 | 88.78 | 88.3532525692515 | 0.42674743074852 |
43 | 88.78 | 88.2086590446373 | 0.571340955362729 |
44 | 88.23 | 88.2694504569747 | -0.0394504569746914 |
45 | 87.91 | 87.7152528776233 | 0.194747122376711 |
46 | 87.79 | 87.4159742218693 | 0.374025778130701 |
47 | 87.89 | 87.3357710456218 | 0.554228954378161 |
48 | 88 | 87.4947417190502 | 0.505258280949803 |
49 | 88 | 87.6585018498544 | 0.341498150145569 |
50 | 87.08 | 87.6948376921621 | -0.614837692162084 |
51 | 85.75 | 86.7094181710968 | -0.9594181710968 |
52 | 84.29 | 85.2773348439771 | -0.987334843977109 |
53 | 84.39 | 83.712281146965 | 0.677718853035046 |
54 | 83.72 | 83.884391304406 | -0.164391304405953 |
55 | 83.72 | 83.1968998582265 | 0.523100141773469 |
56 | 81.76 | 83.2525583859652 | -1.49255838596522 |
57 | 81.53 | 81.133748254419 | 0.396251745580969 |
58 | 80.55 | 80.9459099496886 | -0.395909949688615 |
59 | 79.83 | 79.9237846219415 | -0.0937846219414951 |
60 | 78.98 | 79.1938058175694 | -0.213805817569352 |
61 | 78.98 | 78.3210566036473 | 0.65894339635274 |
62 | 78.27 | 78.3911690283539 | -0.121169028353933 |
63 | 77.41 | 77.6682764879259 | -0.258276487925926 |
64 | 76.75 | 76.7807955374931 | -0.0307955374930913 |
65 | 76.38 | 76.1175188527039 | 0.262481147296114 |
66 | 74.96 | 75.7754471843004 | -0.815447184300453 |
67 | 74.96 | 74.2686825553081 | 0.691317444691919 |
68 | 74.46 | 74.3422396203878 | 0.117760379612207 |
69 | 74.04 | 73.8547694762065 | 0.185230523793521 |
70 | 73.22 | 73.4544782421259 | -0.234478242125903 |
71 | 72.97 | 72.6095294556483 | 0.360470544351671 |
72 | 72.91 | 72.3978839850961 | 0.512116014903896 |
73 | 72.91 | 72.3923737876114 | 0.517626212388592 |
74 | 73.27 | 72.4474498822246 | 0.822550117775364 |
75 | 72.93 | 72.8949702724724 | 0.0350297275276006 |
76 | 72.67 | 72.558697480526 | 0.111302519473952 |
77 | 71.94 | 72.3105402117219 | -0.370540211721888 |
78 | 71.9 | 71.5411142567173 | 0.35888574328267 |
79 | 71.89 | 71.5393001612935 | 0.350699838706518 |
80 | 71.72 | 71.5666150750965 | 0.153384924903534 |
81 | 70.85 | 71.4129354283437 | -0.562935428343735 |
82 | 69.82 | 70.4830383748898 | -0.663038374889794 |
83 | 69.61 | 69.3824902392011 | 0.227509760798938 |
84 | 69.48 | 69.1966975703047 | 0.28330242969534 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 69.0968413131226 | 67.7790318175173 | 70.4146508087279 |
86 | 68.7136826262452 | 66.7483678843297 | 70.6789973681607 |
87 | 68.3305239393678 | 65.7973753239 | 70.8636725548356 |
88 | 67.9473652524904 | 64.8750562038635 | 71.0196743011172 |
89 | 67.564206565613 | 63.9630253170125 | 71.1653878142135 |
90 | 67.1810478787356 | 63.052557380159 | 71.3095383773122 |
91 | 66.7978891918582 | 62.1388993304431 | 71.4568790532732 |
92 | 66.4147305049808 | 61.219243426288 | 71.6102175836735 |
93 | 66.0315718181034 | 60.2918459040096 | 71.7712977321972 |
94 | 65.648413131226 | 59.3555909754093 | 71.9412352870426 |
95 | 65.2652544443486 | 58.4097545547627 | 72.1207543339344 |
96 | 64.8820957574712 | 57.4538672252541 | 72.3103242896882 |