| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.972448439053752 |
| beta | 0.065187907046855 |
| gamma | 0.74672997962751 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 465 | 598.841346153846 | -133.841346153846 |
| 14 | 426 | 427.057687387933 | -1.05768738793273 |
| 15 | 384 | 381.207241530441 | 2.79275846955909 |
| 16 | 379 | 370.944860608845 | 8.05513939115468 |
| 17 | 381 | 364.7688375507 | 16.2311624492999 |
| 18 | 380 | 361.530832563584 | 18.4691674364157 |
| 19 | 351 | 437.348300583373 | -86.3483005833725 |
| 20 | 346 | 319.387404466556 | 26.6125955334442 |
| 21 | 339 | 337.628844540689 | 1.37115545931061 |
| 22 | 336 | 184.91120573548 | 151.08879426452 |
| 23 | 333 | 259.072386900154 | 73.927613099846 |
| 24 | 324 | 319.384708149635 | 4.61529185036505 |
| 25 | 324 | 326.583347633008 | -2.58334763300775 |
| 26 | 321 | 298.686681408931 | 22.3133185910689 |
| 27 | 304 | 290.637605247258 | 13.362394752742 |
| 28 | 343 | 306.426999695704 | 36.5730003042963 |
| 29 | 407 | 345.62421984505 | 61.3757801549499 |
| 30 | 389 | 406.667757603921 | -17.6677576039215 |
| 31 | 361 | 463.23135747429 | -102.23135747429 |
| 32 | 353 | 349.186058707081 | 3.81394129291914 |
| 33 | 361 | 360.329468422369 | 0.670531577630754 |
| 34 | 387 | 225.558114524396 | 161.441885475604 |
| 35 | 692 | 324.403341714789 | 367.596658285211 |
| 36 | 704 | 703.687577729321 | 0.31242227067878 |
| 37 | 742 | 741.10094218347 | 0.899057816529762 |
| 38 | 721 | 751.870850931602 | -30.8708509316018 |
| 39 | 843 | 723.315216968909 | 119.684783031091 |
| 40 | 847 | 881.111610370015 | -34.1116103700145 |
| 41 | 945 | 885.737576110375 | 59.2624238896245 |
| 42 | 946 | 976.621408986575 | -30.6214089865755 |
| 43 | 946 | 1051.5489521942 | -105.548952194195 |
| 44 | 945 | 968.949363229427 | -23.9493632294269 |
| 45 | 1082 | 983.759920130764 | 98.2400798692356 |
| 46 | 1075 | 984.092880381831 | 90.907119618169 |
| 47 | 820 | 1051.0320117677 | -231.032011767702 |
| 48 | 832 | 835.12017193719 | -3.12017193719021 |
| 49 | 851 | 863.485776372315 | -12.4857763723148 |
| 50 | 1090 | 854.015705244088 | 235.984294755912 |
| 51 | 1203 | 1098.40655986511 | 104.593440134886 |
| 52 | 1239 | 1247.75274082413 | -8.75274082412693 |
| 53 | 1535 | 1289.95696615997 | 245.043033840028 |
| 54 | 1527 | 1582.42764176637 | -55.427641766368 |
| 55 | 1480 | 1652.89237188301 | -172.892371883008 |
| 56 | 1452 | 1523.41604587531 | -71.4160458753065 |
| 57 | 1383 | 1508.50504393868 | -125.505043938681 |
| 58 | 1381 | 1290.84638763258 | 90.1536123674177 |
| 59 | 1429 | 1350.12141152124 | 78.8785884787642 |
| 60 | 1376 | 1459.60850674546 | -83.6085067454574 |
| 61 | 1602 | 1423.74625883426 | 178.253741165736 |
| 62 | 1597 | 1631.19937532074 | -34.1993753207355 |
| 63 | 2003 | 1619.3468350314 | 383.653164968603 |
| 64 | 1958 | 2064.62186675377 | -106.621866753769 |
| 65 | 1997 | 2037.56038568516 | -40.5603856851599 |
| 66 | 1986 | 2048.69525362652 | -62.6952536265158 |
| 67 | 2129 | 2111.79577703463 | 17.2042229653739 |
| 68 | 2115 | 2183.43673986894 | -68.4367398689442 |
| 69 | 2297 | 2184.66944002179 | 112.330559978208 |
| 70 | 2250 | 2232.16664582023 | 17.8333541797674 |
| 71 | 2309 | 2245.73359338986 | 63.2664066101388 |
| 72 | 2648 | 2360.55763393382 | 287.44236606618 |
| 73 | 2627 | 2738.29421082749 | -111.294210827492 |
| 74 | 2711 | 2688.83450406208 | 22.1654959379221 |
| 75 | 2732 | 2772.99224228452 | -40.9922422845234 |
| 76 | 2825 | 2800.91735585432 | 24.0826441456752 |
| 77 | 2932 | 2916.28655396761 | 15.7134460323941 |
| 78 | 2910 | 2999.22489286576 | -89.2248928657636 |
| 79 | 2969 | 3054.02422888183 | -85.0242288818295 |
| 80 | 2999 | 3033.86459966967 | -34.8645996696705 |
| 81 | 2965 | 3082.96495334939 | -117.964953349386 |
| 82 | 2846 | 2901.47008431983 | -55.4700843198329 |
| 83 | 2847 | 2836.94367838672 | 10.05632161328 |
| 84 | 2751 | 2893.51840931585 | -142.518409315852 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 2806.56349585781 | 2586.1060054505 | 3027.02098626513 |
| 86 | 2836.75919527383 | 2519.3490081162 | 3154.16938243146 |
| 87 | 2865.3394196784 | 2465.99623323895 | 3264.68260611785 |
| 88 | 2904.34144233806 | 2429.82128549933 | 3378.8615991768 |
| 89 | 2964.46792626499 | 2418.36991654471 | 3510.56593598526 |
| 90 | 2997.31928714748 | 2381.66795342422 | 3612.97062087075 |
| 91 | 3111.98028219955 | 2427.89653150255 | 3796.06403289656 |
| 92 | 3153.93276876107 | 2401.9715402294 | 3905.89399729274 |
| 93 | 3215.83608308986 | 2396.17608547267 | 4035.49608070705 |
| 94 | 3138.42841837333 | 2250.98734503854 | 4025.86949170812 |
| 95 | 3120.79490131608 | 2165.30353908652 | 4076.28626354564 |
| 96 | 3155.41686040364 | 2131.46892281503 | 4179.36479799225 |
