| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 112 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 118 | 116.662660821561 | 4.77318472606327 | 1.3373391784388 | 0.424228080589289 |
| 3 | 132 | 130.365394534929 | 11.0862938277584 | 1.63460546507139 | 0.529048172839721 |
| 4 | 129 | 132.255403551915 | 4.19626407101081 | -3.25540355191513 | -0.555722284152489 |
| 5 | 121 | 123.494625866864 | -5.30231647071514 | -2.4946258668638 | -0.743105121970511 |
| 6 | 135 | 130.68179533446 | 3.82135943169471 | 4.31820466554027 | 0.720130207261748 |
| 7 | 148 | 145.95414659739 | 12.2106083380217 | 2.04585340260986 | 0.661413909426483 |
| 8 | 148 | 150.795462126784 | 6.80932764852561 | -2.79546212678442 | -0.425692682571414 |
| 9 | 136 | 139.990519893046 | -6.0992174360201 | -3.99051989304574 | -1.01743382680434 |
| 10 | 119 | 120.957802168652 | -15.5758533983402 | -1.95780216865166 | -0.746920875285472 |
| 11 | 104 | 103.451987856282 | -16.9899077650568 | 0.548012143717494 | -0.111451529073362 |
| 12 | 118 | 111.32072559103 | 1.22406082423367 | 6.6792744089696 | 1.43557125632817 |
| 13 | 115 | 116.084408660234 | 3.81134595429571 | -1.08440866023373 | 0.204507669684527 |
| 14 | 126 | 126.603292857374 | 8.73193667907727 | -0.603292857373775 | 0.393842478299513 |
| 15 | 141 | 136.88542938304 | 9.82660264532438 | 4.11457061696028 | 0.0859104666090695 |
| 16 | 135 | 136.623510342003 | 2.70264195852385 | -1.62351034200252 | -0.570082896849187 |
| 17 | 125 | 132.265781810979 | -2.30644456975704 | -7.26578181097928 | -0.39434193015766 |
| 18 | 149 | 144.77531785337 | 8.12593012034853 | 4.22468214662972 | 0.820765573065446 |
| 19 | 170 | 165.123435172235 | 16.7344107175371 | 4.87656482776494 | 0.678999384615563 |
| 20 | 170 | 172.074060465327 | 9.83368012884529 | -2.07406046532693 | -0.543950628812971 |
| 21 | 158 | 162.37491006727 | -3.9467962704638 | -4.37491006727028 | -1.08607978928653 |
| 22 | 133 | 137.89054282736 | -18.4354269393493 | -4.89054282736043 | -1.14202126554853 |
| 23 | 114 | 118.554401702219 | -19.0706502604712 | -4.55440170221903 | -0.050066712299741 |
| 24 | 140 | 126.410420900892 | -0.0991658168662584 | 13.5895790991081 | 1.49570948280912 |
| 25 | 145 | 144.556714442576 | 12.7565725662832 | 0.443285557423732 | 1.01622747971878 |
| 26 | 150 | 153.059876554623 | 9.75587649234182 | -3.05987655462345 | -0.236842149856722 |
| 27 | 178 | 168.054581069691 | 13.4122461517353 | 9.94541893030867 | 0.287576590958503 |
| 28 | 163 | 166.179348602282 | 2.7649571503004 | -3.17934860228154 | -0.843937001962951 |
| 29 | 172 | 180.701906853875 | 10.9918313864998 | -8.7019068538749 | 0.649400465261945 |
| 30 | 178 | 182.663270482681 | 4.69351441031335 | -4.66327048268099 | -0.495508871887516 |
| 31 | 199 | 191.572781753968 | 7.62913387671279 | 7.42721824603242 | 0.231380101975583 |
| 32 | 199 | 196.307187061103 | 5.61137260324877 | 2.69281293889736 | -0.15907691873316 |
| 33 | 184 | 184.834370294829 | -6.30429131310988 | -0.83437029482917 | -0.939119925398477 |
| 34 | 162 | 167.362943256515 | -14.0929330858557 | -5.36294325651464 | -0.61390471786554 |
| 35 | 146 | 156.88380915304 | -11.5736794561493 | -10.8838091530396 | 0.198561374925912 |
| 36 | 166 | 155.255957048029 | -4.64475392036768 | 10.7440429519714 | 0.54645417183672 |
| 37 | 171 | 165.813390226407 | 5.95357168417544 | 5.18660977359335 | 0.836837153141881 |
| 38 | 180 | 181.919671454984 | 13.0291193016346 | -1.91967145498435 | 0.557592800248038 |
| 39 | 193 | 182.266819942257 | 4.23629382361306 | 10.7331800577428 | -0.692294861860553 |
| 40 | 181 | 187.090472483925 | 4.64303189409062 | -6.09047248392486 | 0.0321419705567838 |
| 41 | 183 | 190.410473253576 | 3.72421743043436 | -7.41047325357594 | -0.0725304631179211 |
| 42 | 218 | 218.899635101225 | 20.9062895816747 | -0.899635101225075 | 1.35283025822064 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.041136009779 | 12.0647609603703 | 2.95886399022066 | -0.696554779811684 |
| 44 | 242 | 234.341612213951 | 8.76358185849181 | 7.6583877860493 | -0.260227648817721 |
| 45 | 209 | 213.332056190838 | -11.8793705389474 | -4.33205619083788 | -1.62704141202387 |
| 46 | 191 | 196.521087118938 | -15.2988638318339 | -5.52108711893847 | -0.269515336004292 |
| 47 | 172 | 184.659552789243 | -12.9163871097726 | -12.6595527892434 | 0.187794432121239 |
| 48 | 194 | 184.923152188848 | -3.78282917544074 | 9.07684781115226 | 0.720342364305486 |
| 49 | 196 | 191.218741812351 | 3.20563279533353 | 4.78125818764904 | 0.551346850128949 |
| 50 | 196 | 193.579366246096 | 2.62011523208872 | 2.42063375390382 | -0.0461304372091796 |
| 51 | 236 | 218.307132940921 | 17.8926391045561 | 17.6928670590785 | 1.20301533212109 |
| 52 | 235 | 241.229495122123 | 21.3648401336992 | -6.22949512212324 | 0.274070123724167 |
| 53 | 229 | 249.142329376306 | 12.0615492519134 | -20.1423293763063 | -0.734159674804718 |
| 54 | 243 | 245.706059156692 | 1.34448614457827 | -2.70605915669215 | -0.844275840962841 |
| 55 | 264 | 257.065261714693 | 8.2612606188186 | 6.9347382853067 | 0.544865208892013 |
| 56 | 272 | 257.423243713975 | 2.8034229272053 | 14.5767562860252 | -0.430158968535348 |
| 57 | 237 | 242.918319304712 | -9.15456152549526 | -5.91831930471216 | -0.94252767078822 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.71762076152 | -18.8597763943477 | -8.71762076151964 | -0.764957963507803 |
| 59 | 180 | 196.554401009181 | -21.8326826321169 | -16.5544010091808 | -0.234354663117982 |
| 60 | 201 | 189.552399906262 | -11.5865147986064 | 11.4476000937375 | 0.808018181120173 |
| 61 | 204 | 194.894776236363 | 0.113970732795915 | 9.10522376363695 | 0.922657388565045 |
| 62 | 188 | 193.968010550871 | -0.604799774382567 | -5.96801055087145 | -0.0566276492552166 |
| 63 | 235 | 213.769823963708 | 13.461017445872 | 21.2301760362916 | 1.10820945417509 |
| 64 | 227 | 229.318245167363 | 14.8991853312634 | -2.31824516736322 | 0.113458528874094 |
| 65 | 234 | 249.227765952418 | 18.3554249509978 | -15.2277659524184 | 0.272673301937377 |
| 66 | 264 | 270.882710438616 | 20.6319761742286 | -6.88271043861634 | 0.179400027127681 |
| 67 | 302 | 293.373612252453 | 21.9134546099378 | 8.62638774754695 | 0.100953058079707 |
| 68 | 293 | 281.873203057613 | -1.11232879686466 | 11.1267969423874 | -1.8145503179311 |
| 69 | 259 | 262.838544168342 | -13.465023957487 | -3.83854416834158 | -0.973630073337671 |
| 70 | 229 | 237.991720251486 | -21.3106164393694 | -8.99172025148647 | -0.618420449300077 |
| 71 | 203 | 221.8125435885 | -17.7735211164793 | -18.8125435885001 | 0.278850500589937 |
| 72 | 229 | 217.879015576414 | -8.23165710932106 | 11.1209844235857 | 0.752400013366669 |
| 73 | 242 | 227.484978028211 | 4.06916037072317 | 14.5150219717891 | 0.969739555747818 |
| 74 | 233 | 242.250760618912 | 11.4403322765258 | -9.25076061891175 | 0.580745780557883 |
| 75 | 267 | 248.062639845332 | 7.56707640730152 | 18.9373601546676 | -0.305200379906968 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.031042733995 | 17.474567723041 | -1.03104273399504 | 0.781397722162539 |
| 77 | 270 | 289.244358865427 | 18.6718154401739 | -19.2443588654271 | 0.0944370630298585 |
| 78 | 315 | 320.691007571521 | 27.4708748973778 | -5.69100757152095 | 0.693514252549154 |
| 79 | 364 | 346.458231837461 | 26.2981475964754 | 17.5417681625395 | -0.0923937531650861 |
| 80 | 347 | 338.399553178399 | 2.65973803249421 | 8.60044682160138 | -1.86269975663523 |
| 81 | 312 | 316.241246400859 | -14.4152518514341 | -4.24124640085918 | -1.34581032837942 |
| 82 | 274 | 286.808837967852 | -24.7480944351487 | -12.8088379678521 | -0.814522101537233 |
| 83 | 237 | 259.835952976091 | -26.279074203799 | -22.8359529760909 | -0.120702724951921 |
| 84 | 278 | 264.010296366869 | -5.31729684946189 | 13.9897036331307 | 1.65275197294142 |
| 85 | 284 | 269.668371882718 | 2.23809419697517 | 14.3316281172822 | 0.595542825028535 |
| 86 | 277 | 281.221902589392 | 8.64661793758983 | -4.2219025893915 | 0.504919152546176 |
| 87 | 317 | 299.733716671497 | 15.4262943620682 | 17.2662833285027 | 0.534254330358329 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.164952341225 | 16.1167835142493 | -3.1649523412253 | 0.0544499238522542 |
| 89 | 318 | 341.787807160397 | 22.6527975441136 | -23.7878071603969 | 0.515484782234424 |
| 90 | 374 | 378.081219151946 | 32.0346750925082 | -4.08121915194583 | 0.739517395242578 |
| 91 | 413 | 390.981709424465 | 18.880143597465 | 22.0182905755352 | -1.03646643977238 |
| 92 | 405 | 391.716960268679 | 6.41231249290613 | 13.2830397313208 | -0.982429980061358 |
| 93 | 355 | 361.647517373301 | -18.6508163751807 | -6.64751737330131 | -1.97537640845858 |
| 94 | 306 | 321.631710801432 | -33.3296004307869 | -15.6317108014323 | -1.15715372929342 |
| 95 | 271 | 299.208980577475 | -25.834602586638 | -28.2089805774748 | 0.590926044463543 |
| 96 | 306 | 290.6476400993 | -13.9614996207761 | 15.3523599006997 | 0.936088868751523 |
| 97 | 315 | 297.700265193564 | 0.483267350565714 | 17.2997348064361 | 1.13849103201549 |
| 98 | 301 | 305.766996230502 | 5.69289595064963 | -4.76699623050239 | 0.410472453128856 |
| 99 | 356 | 333.322142747734 | 20.6993538988886 | 22.6778572522661 | 1.18259469052875 |
| 100 | 348 | 356.383501136629 | 22.3204228813604 | -8.38350113662855 | 0.127820308768355 |
| 101 | 355 | 384.088009367178 | 26.0176014460374 | -29.0880093671776 | 0.291563757510274 |
| 102 | 422 | 420.362726114562 | 33.063314908581 | 1.63727388543812 | 0.555397474433481 |
| 103 | 465 | 441.582412829556 | 24.9304684381731 | 23.4175871704442 | -0.640839917426039 |
| 104 | 467 | 445.923304398375 | 10.7993926274851 | 21.0766956016246 | -1.11347790998417 |
| 105 | 404 | 413.091335036326 | -19.1376680205573 | -9.09133503632557 | -2.35948278732154 |
| 106 | 347 | 369.497689718341 | -35.9184616591437 | -22.4976897183413 | -1.32289016439064 |
| 107 | 305 | 336.359425174038 | -34.0103336313414 | -31.3594251740381 | 0.150444292023204 |
| 108 | 336 | 321.23432802967 | -21.0453295898726 | 14.7656719703303 | 1.02212992151571 |
| 109 | 340 | 319.887574821762 | -7.5223798610594 | 20.1124251782375 | 1.06578525219994 |
| 110 | 318 | 325.785099233865 | 1.68521515820989 | -7.78509923386498 | 0.725496516247102 |
| 111 | 362 | 337.592540257299 | 8.62555395694085 | 24.4074597427008 | 0.546953655566806 |
| 112 | 348 | 357.240232792691 | 16.1821125053579 | -9.24023279269123 | 0.595791718233226 |
| 113 | 363 | 393.310811452844 | 29.8234819664633 | -30.3108114528444 | 1.07570036819642 |
| 114 | 435 | 431.338508626542 | 35.4524342423637 | 3.6614913734579 | 0.443727055706571 |
| 115 | 491 | 463.215773782014 | 33.000112747473 | 27.7842262179865 | -0.193243460379379 |
| 116 | 505 | 474.716420343469 | 18.2605075542192 | 30.283579656531 | -1.16143089403317 |
| 117 | 404 | 421.551172783765 | -30.6918024904115 | -17.5511727837652 | -3.85812343997087 |
| 118 | 359 | 381.045710726703 | -37.4178156584947 | -22.0457107267033 | -0.530240883873939 |
| 119 | 310 | 346.097528528386 | -35.7247517140631 | -36.0975285283862 | 0.133488091936894 |
| 120 | 337 | 323.990934430306 | -26.3863186848379 | 13.0090655696943 | 0.736195548704794 |
| 121 | 360 | 333.613484669217 | -1.69536864312746 | 26.3865153307831 | 1.94591942555336 |
| 122 | 342 | 348.340460687835 | 9.55953749051953 | -6.34046068783461 | 0.886832355942534 |
| 123 | 406 | 379.535573874932 | 24.3788306116635 | 26.464426125068 | 1.1678998986474 |
| 124 | 396 | 411.73508231127 | 29.7351664396024 | -15.7350823112698 | 0.422297286666424 |
| 125 | 420 | 453.440291926595 | 37.9365984530822 | -33.4402919265946 | 0.646695249715905 |
| 126 | 472 | 475.78185385396 | 27.2483815119764 | -3.78185385396044 | -0.842552140673967 |
| 127 | 548 | 510.955897539501 | 32.679217717724 | 37.0441024604989 | 0.42796606531267 |
| 128 | 559 | 513.663292371066 | 12.1518510881669 | 45.3367076289339 | -1.6175024045829 |
| 129 | 463 | 484.876511573787 | -15.8768940531275 | -21.8765115737865 | -2.20904077175419 |
| 130 | 407 | 434.84068553353 | -39.2640001784067 | -27.8406855335304 | -1.84370688987468 |
| 131 | 362 | 399.140217951318 | -36.8235519792614 | -37.140217951318 | 0.192413575460066 |
| 132 | 405 | 394.181741755857 | -14.995578979465 | 10.818258244143 | 1.72076561965127 |
| 133 | 417 | 392.714811934304 | -5.72902712058274 | 24.2851880656958 | 0.730297450138768 |
| 134 | 391 | 400.377184496177 | 3.43918809364231 | -9.37718449617731 | 0.72242699310028 |
| 135 | 419 | 397.703335541408 | -0.743936327929832 | 21.2966644585917 | -0.329674096296451 |
| 136 | 461 | 463.863961922355 | 45.035590623403 | -2.86396192235516 | 3.60916432253025 |
| 137 | 472 | 506.973754743924 | 43.7174072160339 | -34.9737547439239 | -0.10393615885983 |
| 138 | 535 | 544.916092607559 | 39.7633948458192 | -9.91609260755864 | -0.311694502207231 |
| 139 | 622 | 578.095081142171 | 35.2560039564563 | 43.9049188578288 | -0.355205223827253 |
| 140 | 606 | 560.043257261541 | -1.21956353489441 | 45.9567427384587 | -2.87421693352428 |
| 141 | 508 | 524.076188746647 | -24.9870482615504 | -16.0761887466473 | -1.87319020483904 |
| 142 | 461 | 490.500755250127 | -30.8615145228219 | -29.5007552501273 | -0.463106513569241 |
| 143 | 390 | 441.011228304505 | -43.6064614411701 | -51.0112283045047 | -1.00484343815644 |
| 144 | 432 | 417.850759786557 | -29.6143509563894 | 14.1492402134427 | 1.10301869014763 |
