| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 664459.2921 | 485801.5661 | 843117.0181 | 0.4189 | 0.0204 | 0.6548 | 0.0204 |
| 62 | 847224 | 900872.5873 | 717356.6266 | 1084388.5481 | 0.2833 | 0.99 | 0.2863 | 0.7034 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1131293.329 | 945572.9719 | 1317013.6861 | 0.2701 | 0.9986 | 0.3794 | 0.9985 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1525242.1198 | 1339472.4183 | 1711011.8212 | 0.4542 | 1 | 0.9057 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1592855.0331 | 1407020.3318 | 1778689.7345 | 0.1736 | 0.7962 | 0.2345 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1522735.0892 | 1336900.3103 | 1708569.8681 | 0.4371 | 0.5794 | 0.6137 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2963201.757 | 2777364.7081 | 3149038.8059 | 0.1519 | 1 | 0.6803 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2675571.7278 | 2489734.6571 | 2861408.7985 | 0.1176 | 0.0225 | 0.1455 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1390504.2276 | 1204667.4817 | 1576340.9735 | 0.4954 | 0 | 0.4308 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359721.8721 | 1173885.4354 | 1545558.3089 | 0.472 | 0.3684 | 0.456 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 958235.6141 | 772413.2809 | 1144057.9473 | 0.4499 | 0 | 0.4735 | 0.8713 |
| 72 | 859626 | 862469.2942 | 676677.4365 | 1048261.1519 | 0.488 | 0.1883 | 0.5488 | 0.5488 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | |||||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | sMAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE | ScaledE | MASE |
| 61 | 0.1372 | 0.0273 | 0.0273 | 0.0277 | 348147380.4509 | 0 | 0 | 0.0488 | 0.0488 |
| 62 | 0.1039 | -0.0633 | 0.0453 | 0.0445 | 2878170921.7493 | 1613159151.1001 | 40164.1526 | -0.1402 | 0.0945 |
| 63 | 0.0838 | -0.0541 | 0.0482 | 0.0472 | 3368331562.9541 | 2198216621.7181 | 46885.1429 | -0.1516 | 0.1135 |
| 64 | 0.0621 | -0.0072 | 0.038 | 0.0372 | 119161671.0358 | 1678452884.0475 | 40968.9258 | -0.0285 | 0.0923 |
| 65 | 0.0595 | -0.0593 | 0.0422 | 0.0413 | 7942558547.1873 | 2931274016.6755 | 54141.2414 | -0.2329 | 0.1204 |
| 66 | 0.0623 | -0.01 | 0.0369 | 0.0361 | 225693208.0598 | 2480343881.9062 | 49803.0509 | -0.0393 | 0.1069 |
| 67 | 0.032 | -0.034 | 0.0365 | 0.0357 | 9506982628.7421 | 3484149417.1685 | 59026.6839 | -0.2548 | 0.128 |
| 68 | 0.0354 | 0.0404 | 0.0369 | 0.0364 | 12668914410.4342 | 4632245041.3267 | 68060.5983 | 0.2941 | 0.1488 |
| 69 | 0.0682 | 8e-04 | 0.0329 | 0.0324 | 1191967.0156 | 4117683588.6254 | 64169.1794 | 0.0029 | 0.1325 |
| 70 | 0.0697 | 0.0049 | 0.0301 | 0.0297 | 44304038.1424 | 3710345633.5771 | 60912.6065 | 0.0174 | 0.121 |
| 71 | 0.0989 | -0.0126 | 0.0285 | 0.0281 | 142578265.5441 | 3386003145.5741 | 58189.3731 | -0.0312 | 0.1129 |
| 72 | 0.1099 | -0.0033 | 0.0264 | 0.026 | 8084321.8817 | 3104509910.2664 | 55718.1291 | -0.0074 | 0.1041 |
