| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.379247820246123 |
| beta | 0.0506958573991331 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1151507.5 | 1151594.1448823 | -86.6448823018 |
| 14 | 1151507.5 | 1149045.50426862 | 2461.99573137914 |
| 15 | 1142831.25 | 1138701.18556773 | 4130.06443226524 |
| 16 | 1120157.5 | 1115882.84326647 | 4274.65673353476 |
| 17 | 1237238.75 | 1233644.19983864 | 3594.55016136332 |
| 18 | 1255086.25 | 1251621.32802942 | 3464.92197058303 |
| 19 | 1228136.25 | 1184541.13137519 | 43595.1186248071 |
| 20 | 1165010 | 1158812.67389794 | 6197.32610206376 |
| 21 | 1192015 | 1169772.60945284 | 22242.3905471619 |
| 22 | 1151507.5 | 1183531.41065833 | -32023.9106583335 |
| 23 | 1169781.25 | 1180579.79237187 | -10798.5423718716 |
| 24 | 1178512.5 | 1187370.54872265 | -8858.04872264527 |
| 25 | 1187615 | 1196974.60188464 | -9359.60188464285 |
| 26 | 1165010 | 1192921.77851697 | -27911.7785169745 |
| 27 | 1169781.25 | 1171716.15363577 | -1934.90363576985 |
| 28 | 1138005 | 1145875.71017138 | -7870.71017137682 |
| 29 | 1237238.75 | 1260474.56522635 | -23235.8152263493 |
| 30 | 1268588.75 | 1267398.05891551 | 1190.69108448504 |
| 31 | 1241638.75 | 1222556.44811355 | 19082.30188645 |
| 32 | 1192015 | 1162840.46654617 | 29174.5334538266 |
| 33 | 1245983.75 | 1191545.19952665 | 54438.5504733513 |
| 34 | 1187615 | 1182754.80972206 | 4860.19027793757 |
| 35 | 1241638.75 | 1207881.10569619 | 33757.6443038108 |
| 36 | 1237238.75 | 1234408.45871052 | 2830.29128948483 |
| 37 | 1250755 | 1250081.77149143 | 673.228508573025 |
| 38 | 1201131.25 | 1239044.39318589 | -37913.1431858863 |
| 39 | 1255086.25 | 1231812.02685561 | 23274.2231443923 |
| 40 | 1250755 | 1211870.84004251 | 38884.1599574855 |
| 41 | 1331715 | 1345874.28793947 | -14159.2879394703 |
| 42 | 1313441.25 | 1377158.40601952 | -63717.1560195154 |
| 43 | 1241638.75 | 1318354.77931904 | -76716.0293190449 |
| 44 | 1205462.5 | 1226140.67343124 | -20678.1734312396 |
| 45 | 1255086.25 | 1250866.89833075 | 4219.35166924726 |
| 46 | 1187615 | 1190169.56502526 | -2554.56502526184 |
| 47 | 1237238.75 | 1228298.94412366 | 8939.80587634281 |
| 48 | 1245983.75 | 1223867.79637934 | 22115.9536206599 |
| 49 | 1264257.5 | 1243411.90982149 | 20845.5901785134 |
| 50 | 1223805 | 1214151.70166496 | 9653.29833503859 |
| 51 | 1245983.75 | 1262664.91831582 | -16681.168315822 |
| 52 | 1259486.25 | 1235450.96238054 | 24035.2876194585 |
| 53 | 1309110 | 1328544.4887657 | -19434.4887657035 |
| 54 | 1268588.75 | 1324336.10000809 | -55747.3500080924 |
| 55 | 1214633.75 | 1257946.30785052 | -43312.5578505159 |
| 56 | 1156265 | 1211892.18613604 | -55627.186136042 |
| 57 | 1210288.75 | 1236286.42579398 | -25997.6757939786 |
| 58 | 1061788.75 | 1159068.84457197 | -97280.0945719676 |
| 59 | 1133660 | 1161541.34475644 | -27881.3447564435 |
| 60 | 1174112.5 | 1146238.02761388 | 27874.4723861194 |
| 61 | 1214633.75 | 1161492.42288943 | 53141.3271105681 |
| 62 | 1156265 | 1136317.43890296 | 19947.5610970433 |
| 63 | 1156265 | 1166523.77706928 | -10258.7770692797 |
| 64 | 1156265 | 1162769.15974949 | -6504.15974949091 |
| 65 | 1187615 | 1208174.51851488 | -20559.5185148802 |
| 66 | 1142831.25 | 1177556.99910333 | -34725.7491033303 |
| 67 | 1084036.25 | 1125497.94085571 | -41461.6908557054 |
| 68 | 1034838.75 | 1071128.55455774 | -36289.8045577446 |
| 69 | 1070533.75 | 1111676.05826235 | -41142.3082623512 |
| 70 | 931205 | 989265.969346551 | -58060.9693465512 |
| 71 | 1016578.75 | 1038496.29195199 | -21917.5419519891 |
| 72 | 1066188.75 | 1053429.43972353 | 12759.3102764727 |
| 73 | 1075305 | 1072005.33681704 | 3299.66318295687 |
| 74 | 1025681.25 | 1010158.98160821 | 15522.2683917896 |
| 75 | 1030012.5 | 1014606.43214227 | 15406.0678577299 |
| 76 | 1016578.75 | 1018238.43372816 | -1659.68372816022 |
| 77 | 1061788.75 | 1047529.91865654 | 14258.8313434628 |
| 78 | 1030012.5 | 1020962.0879135 | 9050.41208650172 |
| 79 | 967381.25 | 982617.89357988 | -15236.6435798795 |
| 80 | 922102.5 | 942295.939308562 | -20193.4393085619 |
| 81 | 998662.5 | 978414.389559381 | 20248.1104406188 |
| 82 | 832383.75 | 876345.18142936 | -43961.4314293602 |
| 83 | 940362.5 | 945197.356315097 | -4834.85631509696 |
| 84 | 989560 | 984308.572684355 | 5251.42731564539 |
| 85 | 989560 | 992847.470329039 | -3287.47032903903 |
| 86 | 931205 | 939531.612917444 | -8326.61291744444 |
| 87 | 877236.25 | 933615.030012265 | -56378.780012265 |
| 88 | 872905 | 898065.516599032 | -25160.5165990321 |
| 89 | 922102.5 | 919769.869441452 | 2332.6305585478 |
| 90 | 877236.25 | 886473.494498662 | -9237.2444986623 |
| 91 | 791931.25 | 830367.492782142 | -38436.2427821424 |
| 92 | 733136.25 | 779739.647921219 | -46603.3979212185 |
| 93 | 796276.25 | 813602.533189375 | -17326.2831893754 |
| 94 | 647831.25 | 680514.157334414 | -32682.9073344142 |
| 95 | 782760 | 750341.067978387 | 32418.9320216129 |
| 96 | 854562.5 | 795454.980011671 | 59107.5199883291 |
| 97 | 877236.25 | 814566.503577997 | 62669.7464220033 |
| 98 | 827626.25 | 788771.349957324 | 38854.9000426763 |
| 99 | 764926.25 | 772936.600490295 | -8010.35049029498 |
| 100 | 809778.75 | 773427.561417902 | 36351.1885820976 |
| 101 | 827626.25 | 831230.733126777 | -3604.48312677676 |
| 102 | 814110 | 792928.283578223 | 21181.7164217768 |
| 103 | 679126.25 | 736912.956175916 | -57786.7061759157 |
| 104 | 616481.25 | 677623.435782713 | -61142.1857827127 |
| 105 | 661278.75 | 716435.872618498 | -55157.1226184982 |
| 106 | 526350 | 575413.530907292 | -49063.5309072918 |
| 107 | 665678.75 | 660138.629559634 | 5540.12044036551 |
| 108 | 715302.5 | 700606.868429992 | 14695.6315700084 |
| 109 | 755755 | 700837.518193859 | 54917.481806141 |
| 110 | 688283.75 | 665044.944149382 | 23238.8058506183 |
| 111 | 625157.5 | 621915.133258989 | 3242.36674101092 |
| 112 | 661278.75 | 644811.584704591 | 16467.1652954092 |
| 113 | 679126.25 | 662714.578250892 | 16411.6717491081 |
| 114 | 643431.25 | 648088.700220319 | -4657.45022031909 |
| 115 | 508502.5 | 552344.082881729 | -43841.5828817288 |
| 116 | 449707.5 | 500318.660285809 | -50611.1602858093 |
| 117 | 503676.25 | 527825.505304519 | -24149.255304519 |
| 118 | 355231.25 | 423776.35943946 | -68545.1094394599 |
| 119 | 517178.75 | 496685.529930734 | 20493.220069266 |
| 120 | 616481.25 | 532948.376088603 | 83532.8739113974 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 576149.860549576 | 511735.656642673 | 640564.064456478 |
| 122 | 513848.030448258 | 445303.102374241 | 582392.958522275 |
| 123 | 461646.153965348 | 389408.950561342 | 533883.357369354 |
| 124 | 479087.332383984 | 400215.174103373 | 557959.490664594 |
| 125 | 482358.259491963 | 397098.516204545 | 567618.002779382 |
| 126 | 453000.578937885 | 363969.818522683 | 542031.339353086 |
| 127 | 364776.049217985 | 278666.185186141 | 450885.913249829 |
| 128 | 332042.541208002 | 243529.995656178 | 420555.086759827 |
| 129 | 375449.66514579 | 273200.502889404 | 477698.827402177 |
| 130 | 280105.771443693 | 187516.70016287 | 372694.842724515 |
| 131 | 400478.79959121 | 274092.129000908 | 526865.470181511 |
| 132 | 448794.553607006 | 314756.941294218 | 582832.165919795 |
