| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00903806239705356 |
| beta | 1 |
| gamma | 0.930857409776002 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 326160 | 338557.461834503 | -12397.4618345029 |
| 14 | 244620 | 253730.357566054 | -9110.3575660541 |
| 15 | 288108 | 301203.255518599 | -13095.2555185987 |
| 16 | 217440 | 226983.04099333 | -9543.04099332969 |
| 17 | 304416 | 312921.851084317 | -8505.85108431731 |
| 18 | 250056 | 253098.385567753 | -3042.38556775317 |
| 19 | 331596 | 316956.438909934 | 14639.5610900663 |
| 20 | 298980 | 325905.06346127 | -26925.06346127 |
| 21 | 315288 | 362277.818566687 | -46989.8185666869 |
| 22 | 353340 | 313465.788384914 | 39874.2116150857 |
| 23 | 347904 | 297125.110237896 | 50778.8897621041 |
| 24 | 413136 | 371606.515967726 | 41529.4840322745 |
| 25 | 298980 | 304364.942468195 | -5384.94246819546 |
| 26 | 250056 | 228331.819361995 | 21724.1806380051 |
| 27 | 277236 | 269773.111070596 | 7462.8889294042 |
| 28 | 201132 | 204116.677673828 | -2984.67767382826 |
| 29 | 288108 | 286133.163761432 | 1974.83623856807 |
| 30 | 222876 | 235436.759631797 | -12560.7596317975 |
| 31 | 315288 | 311427.369078573 | 3860.63092142704 |
| 32 | 298980 | 284187.422868623 | 14792.5771313772 |
| 33 | 266364 | 302358.957966326 | -35994.9579663256 |
| 34 | 380520 | 333209.046913107 | 47310.9530868928 |
| 35 | 342468 | 328404.131946976 | 14063.8680530238 |
| 36 | 391392 | 391899.322573395 | -507.322573394573 |
| 37 | 293544 | 286368.595928827 | 7175.40407117252 |
| 38 | 271800 | 238062.442020516 | 33737.5579794836 |
| 39 | 244620 | 265890.874258132 | -21270.8742581318 |
| 40 | 201132 | 193581.390202337 | 7550.609797663 |
| 41 | 266364 | 277444.056420095 | -11080.0564200954 |
| 42 | 239184 | 215869.147766992 | 23314.8522330075 |
| 43 | 326160 | 305062.018421877 | 21097.9815781231 |
| 44 | 315288 | 289551.705623305 | 25736.2943766952 |
| 45 | 271800 | 262693.866833242 | 9106.1331667584 |
| 46 | 364212 | 370188.30614101 | -5976.30614100985 |
| 47 | 337032 | 336140.249986462 | 891.750013538171 |
| 48 | 434880 | 386573.112452481 | 48306.8875475189 |
| 49 | 347904 | 290976.809458583 | 56927.1905414168 |
| 50 | 212004 | 269322.778556533 | -57318.7785565326 |
| 51 | 212004 | 246320.054817142 | -34316.0548171416 |
| 52 | 212004 | 200944.784698217 | 11059.2153017834 |
| 53 | 250056 | 268441.323693771 | -18385.3236937714 |
| 54 | 250056 | 238895.622564884 | 11160.3774351156 |
| 55 | 337032 | 326965.25160851 | 10066.7483914896 |
| 56 | 309852 | 315933.046483671 | -6081.04648367141 |
| 57 | 277236 | 273205.93881306 | 4030.06118693994 |
| 58 | 347904 | 367494.689135199 | -19590.6891351989 |
| 59 | 320724 | 339378.529039575 | -18654.5290395747 |
| 60 | 462060 | 433624.535047151 | 28435.4649528491 |
| 61 | 364212 | 344794.080828887 | 19417.9191711127 |
| 62 | 212004 | 216407.372088731 | -4403.3720887308 |
| 63 | 222876 | 214890.313526965 | 7985.68647303476 |
| 64 | 184824 | 211910.960639693 | -27086.9606396935 |
| 65 | 255492 | 251758.890072668 | 3733.10992733249 |
| 66 | 293544 | 249636.520166691 | 43907.4798333094 |
| 67 | 369648 | 337612.205109346 | 32035.7948906537 |
| 68 | 364212 | 312276.139659795 | 51935.8603402051 |
| 69 | 293544 | 280059.737769047 | 13484.2622309533 |
| 70 | 342468 | 354753.277475003 | -12285.2774750029 |
| 71 | 304416 | 328369.697918337 | -23953.6979183374 |
| 72 | 434880 | 470304.427955428 | -35424.4279554284 |
| 73 | 331596 | 371333.141203704 | -39737.1412037038 |
| 74 | 266364 | 217259.103984288 | 49104.8960157116 |
| 75 | 239184 | 228597.49573645 | 10586.5042635504 |
| 76 | 179388 | 192843.826667727 | -13455.8266677274 |
| 77 | 266364 | 264417.754275451 | 1946.24572454928 |
| 78 | 320724 | 301595.742704494 | 19128.2572955063 |
| 79 | 375084 | 382292.933079347 | -7208.93307934742 |
| 80 | 353340 | 375145.933773744 | -21805.9337737436 |
| 81 | 260928 | 303920.592978065 | -42992.5929780652 |
| 82 | 375084 | 355423.942658137 | 19660.0573418626 |
| 83 | 293544 | 316772.63226706 | -23228.6322670601 |
| 84 | 451188 | 451982.680003519 | -794.680003518763 |
| 85 | 375084 | 345606.330675359 | 29477.6693246407 |
| 86 | 271800 | 271800.383894589 | -0.383894588798285 |
| 87 | 250056 | 246075.710318677 | 3980.2896813229 |
| 88 | 168516 | 185968.958265323 | -17452.9582653227 |
| 89 | 266364 | 273916.14005761 | -7552.14005760965 |
| 90 | 255492 | 327761.857421514 | -72269.8574215141 |
| 91 | 385956 | 383007.108642892 | 2948.89135710831 |
| 92 | 385956 | 360573.77096532 | 25382.2290346799 |
| 93 | 293544 | 267860.688804363 | 25683.3111956373 |
| 94 | 380520 | 379212.724352707 | 1307.27564729343 |
| 95 | 282672 | 299283.766371395 | -16611.7663713953 |
| 96 | 440316 | 456851.276984049 | -16535.2769840487 |
| 97 | 375084 | 376748.924383557 | -1664.92438355664 |
| 98 | 277236 | 273861.638853296 | 3374.36114670365 |
| 99 | 212004 | 251137.403443475 | -39133.4034434753 |
| 100 | 146772 | 169912.245499493 | -23140.2454994927 |
| 101 | 288108 | 265854.903960507 | 22253.096039493 |
| 102 | 277236 | 259365.23517944 | 17870.7648205603 |
| 103 | 364212 | 384203.657038996 | -19991.6570389961 |
| 104 | 418572 | 381878.17061856 | 36693.8293814398 |
| 105 | 309852 | 289794.043420253 | 20057.9565797469 |
| 106 | 347904 | 377689.723921234 | -29785.7239212344 |
| 107 | 260928 | 281220.804978116 | -20292.8049781162 |
| 108 | 451188 | 436459.409325043 | 14728.5906749566 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 370623.506419812 | 324021.93310029 | 417225.079739334 |
| 110 | 273267.106443028 | 226660.752955272 | 319873.459930783 |
| 111 | 211807.705458884 | 165194.375159184 | 258421.035758584 |
| 112 | 146562.627522428 | 99945.618967415 | 193179.63607744 |
| 113 | 283277.699592274 | 236537.743235892 | 330017.655948656 |
| 114 | 272814.190840954 | 225979.363551886 | 319649.018130022 |
| 115 | 361498.650722347 | 314234.762690334 | 408762.538754361 |
| 116 | 411227.085709149 | 363353.648649377 | 459100.522768922 |
| 117 | 304569.013786841 | 256982.063564487 | 352155.964009195 |
| 118 | 345385.978523302 | 297083.991311083 | 393687.965735521 |
| 119 | 258976.317408518 | 211118.591762821 | 306834.043054215 |
| 120 | 444437.179219777 | 423310.755369726 | 465563.603069829 |
