| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.204033093693474 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 54968 | 54443.9853201372 | 524.014679862841 |
| 14 | 53708 | 52959.627205834 | 748.372794165982 |
| 15 | 45848 | 44971.5030092609 | 876.496990739121 |
| 16 | 47112 | 45942.8812223695 | 1169.11877763054 |
| 17 | 83716 | 80921.1362101862 | 2794.86378981383 |
| 18 | 91572 | 87411.6931935121 | 4160.30680648793 |
| 19 | 70664 | 64328.4694069794 | 6335.53059302064 |
| 20 | 58896 | 51914.3735744216 | 6981.62642557844 |
| 21 | 61548 | 55950.1223638904 | 5597.8776361096 |
| 22 | 62828 | 58388.2932825651 | 4439.70671743492 |
| 23 | 69404 | 61582.4017750512 | 7821.59822494876 |
| 24 | 75856 | 66420.4958618648 | 9435.50413813522 |
| 25 | 77260 | 73460.632550979 | 3799.36744902103 |
| 26 | 64088 | 72108.4660315167 | -8020.4660315167 |
| 27 | 65476 | 59757.8302674391 | 5718.1697325609 |
| 28 | 48372 | 62107.7126362952 | -13735.7126362952 |
| 29 | 96888 | 104407.580670731 | -7519.58067073095 |
| 30 | 111200 | 111219.615458363 | -19.615458362663 |
| 31 | 78524 | 83973.8922393961 | -5449.8922393961 |
| 32 | 68016 | 67116.058656684 | 899.941343315964 |
| 33 | 74596 | 68837.5356670784 | 5758.46433292162 |
| 34 | 82452 | 70294.5488380909 | 12157.4511619091 |
| 35 | 94220 | 78260.7014373932 | 15959.2985626068 |
| 36 | 108656 | 86468.3903739917 | 22187.6096260083 |
| 37 | 108656 | 91578.1834782969 | 17077.8165217031 |
| 38 | 99412 | 80556.7539571322 | 18855.2460428678 |
| 39 | 95484 | 84403.0968459778 | 11080.9031540222 |
| 40 | 71928 | 66911.7812492184 | 5016.2187507816 |
| 41 | 111200 | 137752.242055786 | -26552.2420557861 |
| 42 | 129564 | 151528.192428078 | -21964.1924280776 |
| 43 | 113848 | 105005.623458251 | 8842.37654174869 |
| 44 | 96888 | 92048.8578321561 | 4839.14216784394 |
| 45 | 99412 | 100089.333352422 | -677.333352421672 |
| 46 | 108656 | 106481.891317928 | 2174.10868207221 |
| 47 | 121704 | 117087.22829019 | 4616.77170980973 |
| 48 | 137420 | 129139.31455652 | 8280.68544348024 |
| 49 | 126896 | 125877.256226681 | 1018.74377331862 |
| 50 | 120444 | 109993.883616974 | 10450.116383026 |
| 51 | 120444 | 104807.285231173 | 15636.7147688265 |
| 52 | 99412 | 80069.334084844 | 19342.665915156 |
| 53 | 129564 | 135082.93700153 | -5518.93700152956 |
| 54 | 149188 | 160658.28259315 | -11470.2825931504 |
| 55 | 133492 | 136599.198601315 | -3107.19860131497 |
| 56 | 116516 | 114361.508270998 | 2154.49172900188 |
| 57 | 121704 | 117837.117526251 | 3866.88247374864 |
| 58 | 142612 | 128986.011057152 | 13625.9889428477 |
| 59 | 151856 | 146250.055848455 | 5605.94415154509 |
| 60 | 164888 | 164100.570335284 | 787.429664715659 |
| 61 | 154380 | 151281.159525109 | 3098.84047489078 |
| 62 | 137420 | 141307.003753054 | -3887.00375305364 |
| 63 | 133492 | 136248.347868433 | -2756.34786843302 |
| 64 | 102080 | 106663.625942772 | -4583.62594277241 |
| 65 | 122968 | 138909.849418299 | -15941.849418299 |
| 66 | 145260 | 158474.709179782 | -13214.7091797819 |
| 67 | 120444 | 140006.752809418 | -19562.7528094178 |
| 68 | 106008 | 118251.889109582 | -12243.8891095816 |
| 69 | 120444 | 120107.907671192 | 336.092328808125 |
| 70 | 134756 | 137860.17554093 | -3104.17554093018 |
| 71 | 142612 | 145017.355863356 | -2405.35586335565 |
| 72 | 163624 | 156816.82257635 | 6807.17742365022 |
| 73 | 153120 | 147538.790301406 | 5581.209698594 |
| 74 | 126896 | 133116.723209659 | -6220.72320965934 |
| 75 | 129564 | 128637.066402608 | 926.933597391602 |
| 76 | 104744 | 99401.634397854 | 5342.36560214598 |
| 77 | 125636 | 123967.095632219 | 1668.90436778148 |
| 78 | 144000 | 149375.726477762 | -5375.72647776231 |
| 79 | 122968 | 126541.667212985 | -3573.66721298486 |
| 80 | 108656 | 113097.083772999 | -4441.083772999 |
| 81 | 121704 | 127358.093880544 | -5654.09388054394 |
| 82 | 137420 | 141817.730854175 | -4397.73085417479 |
| 83 | 134756 | 149606.953539353 | -14850.9535393528 |
| 84 | 166168 | 166672.383223793 | -504.383223792887 |
| 85 | 160976 | 154667.984670478 | 6308.01532952164 |
| 86 | 140068 | 130477.251470185 | 9590.74852981538 |
| 87 | 141332 | 134990.313495726 | 6341.68650427437 |
| 88 | 113848 | 108953.713577373 | 4894.2864226274 |
| 89 | 130824 | 131489.854181933 | -665.85418193342 |
| 90 | 157048 | 151633.763060258 | 5414.23693974232 |
| 91 | 137420 | 131147.684434487 | 6272.31556551266 |
| 92 | 125636 | 117916.458720185 | 7719.54127981534 |
| 93 | 145260 | 135001.271607218 | 10258.7283927815 |
| 94 | 157048 | 155693.361295469 | 1354.63870453121 |
| 95 | 147928 | 156012.158798715 | -8084.15879871545 |
| 96 | 189724 | 190336.034784657 | -612.03478465692 |
| 97 | 179340 | 182626.824235558 | -3286.82423555767 |
| 98 | 155784 | 155891.384555919 | -107.384555919038 |
| 99 | 149188 | 155703.246378045 | -6515.24637804463 |
| 100 | 119056 | 123172.623563024 | -4116.62356302395 |
| 101 | 136140 | 140671.437351599 | -4531.43735159931 |
| 102 | 151856 | 166494.268612942 | -14638.2686129416 |
| 103 | 132212 | 141662.635253736 | -9450.63525373637 |
| 104 | 132212 | 126058.082834275 | 6153.91716572538 |
| 105 | 154380 | 144943.414075116 | 9436.58592488355 |
| 106 | 166168 | 158498.016804861 | 7669.98319513898 |
| 107 | 159696 | 152365.838961953 | 7330.16103804708 |
| 108 | 205420 | 197428.604956221 | 7991.39504377855 |
| 109 | 193652 | 188817.331973864 | 4834.66802613574 |
| 110 | 171484 | 164855.160765478 | 6628.83923452205 |
| 111 | 162240 | 160495.315688265 | 1744.6843117346 |
| 112 | 129564 | 129202.307034594 | 361.692965405513 |
| 113 | 141332 | 148751.010224441 | -7419.01022444057 |
| 114 | 162240 | 167176.723033743 | -4936.72303374289 |
| 115 | 146524 | 146611.773009848 | -87.7730098477623 |
| 116 | 142612 | 145081.560358411 | -2469.56035841058 |
| 117 | 160976 | 166540.272262484 | -5564.27226248448 |
| 118 | 176672 | 176240.993212215 | 431.006787785154 |
| 119 | 159696 | 167770.80739427 | -8074.80739426997 |
| 120 | 200228 | 211901.134221201 | -11673.1342212011 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 196473.367571372 | 179549.761376867 | 213396.973765877 |
| 122 | 172555.965936601 | 155365.053499006 | 189746.878374197 |
| 123 | 162888.58974299 | 145424.318005553 | 180352.861480426 |
| 124 | 130005.517478921 | 112521.703967512 | 147489.330990331 |
| 125 | 143269.538819453 | 125270.066660761 | 161269.010978145 |
| 126 | 165451.628962589 | 146693.490982071 | 184209.766943106 |
| 127 | 149430.49275225 | 130748.765953176 | 168112.219551324 |
| 128 | 145935.802045275 | 127044.046499345 | 164827.557591204 |
| 129 | 165842.533535248 | 146044.463508507 | 185640.603561989 |
| 130 | 181899.716554507 | 161245.906647997 | 202553.526461016 |
| 131 | 166031.978746147 | 145731.936018257 | 186332.021474037 |
| 132 | 210504.508989474 | 195692.303693579 | 225316.714285369 |
