| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0601069458427053 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 2448.2 | 2476.8 | -28.5999999999999 |
| 4 | 2470.4 | 2463.0809413489 | 7.31905865110184 |
| 5 | 2484.7 | 2485.72086761086 | -1.02086761086002 |
| 6 | 2466.8 | 2499.95950637666 | -33.1595063766608 |
| 7 | 2487.9 | 2480.06638972271 | 7.83361027729143 |
| 8 | 2508.4 | 2501.6372441114 | 6.76275588860153 |
| 9 | 2510.5 | 2522.54373271334 | -12.0437327133423 |
| 10 | 2497.4 | 2523.9198207234 | -26.5198207233971 |
| 11 | 2532.5 | 2509.22579529542 | 23.2742047045822 |
| 12 | 2556.8 | 2545.72473665713 | 11.0752633428719 |
| 13 | 2561 | 2570.69043691107 | -9.69043691107208 |
| 14 | 2547.3 | 2574.30797434447 | -27.0079743444658 |
| 15 | 2541.5 | 2558.98460749322 | -17.484607493222 |
| 16 | 2558.5 | 2552.13366113755 | 6.36633886245409 |
| 17 | 2587.9 | 2569.51632232277 | 18.3836776772323 |
| 18 | 2580.5 | 2600.0213090413 | -19.5213090413031 |
| 19 | 2579.6 | 2591.44794277598 | -11.8479427759785 |
| 20 | 2589.3 | 2589.8357991212 | -0.535799121194941 |
| 21 | 2595 | 2599.50359387244 | -4.50359387243543 |
| 22 | 2595.6 | 2604.93289659945 | -9.33289659944739 |
| 23 | 2588.8 | 2604.97192468899 | -16.1719246889884 |
| 24 | 2591.7 | 2597.19987968754 | -5.49987968753567 |
| 25 | 2601.7 | 2599.76929871701 | 1.93070128298496 |
| 26 | 2585.4 | 2609.88534727447 | -24.4853472744699 |
| 27 | 2573.3 | 2592.1136078319 | -18.8136078319035 |
| 28 | 2597.4 | 2578.88277932485 | 18.5172206751545 |
| 29 | 2600.6 | 2604.09579290512 | -3.49579290512474 |
| 30 | 2570.6 | 2607.0856714703 | -36.4856714702987 |
| 31 | 2569.4 | 2574.8926291912 | -5.49262919119838 |
| 32 | 2584.9 | 2573.36248402587 | 11.5375159741307 |
| 33 | 2608.8 | 2589.55596887369 | 19.2440311263144 |
| 34 | 2617.2 | 2614.61266881039 | 2.58733118960936 |
| 35 | 2621 | 2623.16818538608 | -2.1681853860814 |
| 36 | 2540.5 | 2626.8378623845 | -86.3378623845033 |
| 37 | 2554.5 | 2541.14835716598 | 13.3516428340172 |
| 38 | 2601.9 | 2555.95088363872 | 45.9491163612815 |
| 39 | 2623 | 2606.11274468737 | 16.8872553126339 |
| 40 | 2640.7 | 2628.22778602787 | 12.4722139721252 |
| 41 | 2640.7 | 2646.67745271764 | -5.97745271763552 |
| 42 | 2619.8 | 2646.31816629086 | -26.518166290859 |
| 43 | 2624.2 | 2623.82424030577 | 0.375759694232784 |
| 44 | 2638.2 | 2628.24682607336 | 9.95317392664174 |
| 45 | 2645.7 | 2642.84508095953 | 2.85491904047012 |
| 46 | 2679.6 | 2650.51668142368 | 29.0833185763195 |
| 47 | 2669 | 2686.16479087827 | -17.1647908782734 |
| 48 | 2664.6 | 2674.53306772255 | -9.9330677225521 |
| 49 | 2663.3 | 2669.5360213589 | -6.23602135890042 |
| 50 | 2667.4 | 2667.86119316081 | -0.461193160807397 |
| 51 | 2653.2 | 2671.93347224847 | -18.7334722484679 |
| 52 | 2630.8 | 2656.60746044658 | -25.8074604465828 |
| 53 | 2626.6 | 2632.65625281918 | -6.05625281918265 |
| 54 | 2641.9 | 2628.09222995897 | 13.8077700410299 |
| 55 | 2625.8 | 2644.22217284503 | -18.4221728450348 |
| 56 | 2606 | 2627.01487229953 | -21.0148722995336 |
| 57 | 2594.4 | 2605.95173250833 | -11.5517325083338 |
| 58 | 2583.6 | 2593.65739314807 | -10.0573931480662 |
| 59 | 2588.7 | 2582.2528739628 | 6.44712603720336 |
| 60 | 2600.3 | 2587.74039101836 | 12.5596089816445 |
| 61 | 2579.5 | 2600.09531075522 | -20.5953107552214 |
| 62 | 2576.6 | 2578.05738952704 | -1.45738952704323 |
| 63 | 2597.8 | 2575.06979029367 | 22.7302097063307 |
| 64 | 2595.6 | 2597.63603377748 | -2.03603377748141 |
| 65 | 2599 | 2595.31365400548 | 3.6863459945157 |
| 66 | 2621.7 | 2598.93522900453 | 22.7647709954658 |
| 67 | 2645.6 | 2623.00354986188 | 22.59645013812 |
| 68 | 2644.2 | 2648.26175346657 | -4.06175346656983 |
| 69 | 2625.6 | 2646.61761387093 | -21.017613870928 |
| 70 | 2624.6 | 2626.75430929225 | -2.15430929224522 |
| 71 | 2596.2 | 2625.62482034029 | -29.4248203402881 |
| 72 | 2599.5 | 2595.45618425766 | 4.0438157423373 |
| 73 | 2584.1 | 2598.99924567149 | -14.8992456714855 |
| 74 | 2570.8 | 2582.70369751881 | -11.9036975188119 |
| 75 | 2555 | 2568.68820261672 | -13.6882026167214 |
| 76 | 2574.5 | 2552.06544656335 | 22.4345534366462 |
| 77 | 2576.7 | 2572.91391905178 | 3.78608094822403 |
| 78 | 2579 | 2575.34148881429 | 3.65851118571345 |
| 79 | 2588.7 | 2577.86139074799 | 10.8386092520086 |
| 80 | 2601.1 | 2588.21286644731 | 12.8871335526883 |
| 81 | 2575.7 | 2601.38747268583 | -25.6874726858314 |
| 82 | 2559.5 | 2574.44347715627 | -14.9434771562678 |
| 83 | 2561.1 | 2557.34527038413 | 3.75472961586547 |
| 84 | 2528.3 | 2559.17095571381 | -30.8709557138091 |
| 85 | 2514.7 | 2524.51539685061 | -9.81539685060716 |
| 86 | 2558.5 | 2510.32542332368 | 48.1745766763174 |
| 87 | 2553.3 | 2557.02104999496 | -3.72104999496105 |
| 88 | 2577.1 | 2551.59738904444 | 25.5026109555633 |
| 89 | 2566 | 2576.93027309999 | -10.9302730999898 |
| 90 | 2549.5 | 2565.17328776672 | -15.6732877667228 |
| 91 | 2527.8 | 2547.73121430775 | -19.9312143077509 |
| 92 | 2540.9 | 2524.83320988878 | 16.0667901112242 |
| 93 | 2534.2 | 2538.89893557186 | -4.69893557185742 |
| 94 | 2538 | 2531.91649690592 | 6.08350309407888 |
| 95 | 2559 | 2536.08215769693 | 22.9178423030689 |
| 96 | 2554.9 | 2558.45967920307 | -3.5596792030733 |
| 97 | 2575.5 | 2554.145717758 | 21.3542822420031 |
| 98 | 2546.5 | 2576.02925844423 | -29.5292584442268 |
| 99 | 2561.6 | 2545.25434490614 | 16.3456550938554 |
| 100 | 2546.6 | 2561.33683231163 | -14.7368323116343 |
| 101 | 2502.9 | 2545.45104632999 | -42.5510463299856 |
| 102 | 2463.1 | 2499.19343289268 | -36.0934328926792 |
| 103 | 2472.6 | 2457.22396687652 | 15.3760331234785 |
| 104 | 2463.5 | 2467.64817326675 | -4.14817326674984 |
| 105 | 2446.3 | 2458.29883924086 | -11.9988392408591 |
| 106 | 2456.2 | 2440.37762566043 | 15.8223743395661 |
| 107 | 2471.5 | 2451.22866025796 | 20.2713397420353 |
| 108 | 2447.5 | 2467.747108578 | -20.2471085779985 |
| 109 | 2428.6 | 2442.53011671923 | -13.9301167192293 |
| 110 | 2420.2 | 2422.792819948 | -2.59281994800403 |
| 111 | 2414.9 | 2414.23697345981 | 0.663026540190913 |
| 112 | 2420.2 | 2408.97682596015 | 11.2231740398465 |
| 113 | 2423.8 | 2414.95141667435 | 8.84858332565091 |
| 114 | 2407 | 2419.08327799309 | -12.0832779930893 |
| 115 | 2388.7 | 2401.55698905716 | -12.8569890571562 |
| 116 | 2409.6 | 2382.4841947122 | 27.1158052878027 |
| 117 | 2392 | 2405.01404295211 | -13.0140429521125 |
| 118 | 2380.2 | 2386.6318085772 | -6.43180857719562 |
| 119 | 2423.3 | 2374.44521220737 | 48.8547877926253 |
| 120 | 2451.6 | 2420.48172429138 | 31.1182757086162 |
| 121 | 2440.8 | 2450.65214880412 | -9.85214880411922 |
| 122 | 2432.9 | 2439.25996622952 | -6.35996622951598 |
| 123 | 2413.6 | 2430.9776880838 | -17.3776880837972 |
| 124 | 2391.6 | 2410.63316832727 | -19.033168327273 |
| 125 | 2358.1 | 2387.48914270941 | -29.3891427094104 |
| 126 | 2345.4 | 2352.22265110021 | -6.82265110021217 |
| 127 | 2384.4 | 2339.11256238003 | 45.287437619972 |
| 128 | 2384.4 | 2380.83465194041 | 3.56534805959336 |
| 129 | 2384.4 | 2381.04895412313 | 3.3510458768651 |
| 130 | 2418.7 | 2381.25037525617 | 37.4496247438274 |
| 131 | 2420 | 2417.80135782248 | 2.19864217752092 |
| 132 | 2493.1 | 2419.23351148877 | 73.8664885112289 |
| 133 | 2493.1 | 2496.77340051331 | -3.67340051330621 |
| 134 | 2492.8 | 2496.55260362759 | -3.752603627594 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 135 | 2496.02704608458 | 2455.16418054609 | 2536.88991162307 |
| 136 | 2499.25409216916 | 2439.70318790975 | 2558.80499642857 |
| 137 | 2502.48113825374 | 2427.3700570354 | 2577.59221947209 |
| 138 | 2505.70818433833 | 2416.4449107117 | 2594.97145796496 |
| 139 | 2508.93523042291 | 2406.28461933912 | 2611.58584150669 |
| 140 | 2512.16227650749 | 2396.57080795863 | 2627.75374505635 |
| 141 | 2515.38932259207 | 2387.12118070849 | 2643.65746447565 |
| 142 | 2518.61636867665 | 2377.82148565058 | 2659.41125170273 |
| 143 | 2521.84341476123 | 2368.59557151063 | 2675.09125801183 |
| 144 | 2525.07046084581 | 2359.3903817365 | 2690.75053995513 |
| 145 | 2528.29750693039 | 2350.16770647031 | 2706.42730739048 |
| 146 | 2531.52455301498 | 2340.89932298678 | 2722.14978304317 |
