Classical Decomposition by Moving Averages | |||||
t | Observations | Fit | Trend | Seasonal | Random |
1 | 54.3 | NA | NA | 0.917831067832151 | NA |
2 | 55.9 | NA | NA | 0.920742027775002 | NA |
3 | 63.9 | NA | NA | 0.978915585040379 | NA |
4 | 64 | NA | NA | 1.0435187098655 | NA |
5 | 60.7 | NA | NA | 1.05009832601402 | NA |
6 | 67.8 | NA | NA | 1.08468265762913 | NA |
7 | 70.5 | 73.9992775175432 | 67.5333333333333 | 1.0957444844651 | 0.952712004293371 |
8 | 76.6 | 74.5486418538372 | 69.2291666666667 | 1.07683864248697 | 1.02751704249938 |
9 | 76.2 | 71.7232145923051 | 70.4875 | 1.0175309748864 | 1.06241752315679 |
10 | 71.8 | 69.2498982443817 | 71.8291666666667 | 0.964091628206485 | 1.03682462819828 |
11 | 67.8 | 69.0968952444595 | 73.6833333333333 | 0.937754742064595 | 0.981230773975137 |
12 | 69.7 | 68.7685328056689 | 75.3833333333333 | 0.912251153734277 | 1.01354496244617 |
13 | 76.7 | 70.5467904512487 | 76.8625 | 0.917831067832151 | 1.08722167953202 |
14 | 74.2 | 71.9521530455007 | 78.1458333333333 | 0.920742027775002 | 1.03124085742198 |
15 | 75.8 | 76.9957895783634 | 78.6541666666667 | 0.978915585040379 | 0.984469415991294 |
16 | 84.3 | 82.0727465309213 | 78.65 | 1.0435187098655 | 1.02713755251555 |
17 | 84.9 | 82.7608743189798 | 78.8125 | 1.05009832601402 | 1.02584706479508 |
18 | 84.4 | 85.9565811060351 | 79.2458333333333 | 1.08468265762913 | 0.981891077029752 |
19 | 89.4 | 86.6505607110966 | 79.0791666666667 | 1.0957444844651 | 1.03173019616192 |
20 | 88.5 | 84.5901621950282 | 78.5541666666667 | 1.07683864248697 | 1.04622095174563 |
21 | 76.5 | 79.8083461302567 | 78.4333333333333 | 1.0175309748864 | 0.958546363999862 |
22 | 71.4 | 75.4642721978626 | 78.275 | 0.964091628206485 | 0.946143094215414 |
23 | 72.1 | 73.1057967667857 | 77.9583333333333 | 0.937754742064595 | 0.986241901309218 |
24 | 75.8 | 70.9807418534745 | 77.8083333333333 | 0.912251153734277 | 1.06789529132386 |
25 | 66.6 | 71.5181616647044 | 77.9208333333333 | 0.917831067832151 | 0.931231989885842 |
26 | 71.7 | 71.7948596157558 | 77.975 | 0.920742027775002 | 0.998678740842123 |
27 | 75.4 | 77.0651294323038 | 78.725 | 0.978915585040379 | 0.978393218248384 |
28 | 80.9 | 84.3163117571321 | 80.8 | 1.0435187098655 | 0.959482196434628 |
29 | 80.7 | 88.0463692265836 | 83.8458333333333 | 1.05009832601402 | 0.916562496658118 |
30 | 85 | 94.4713399684237 | 87.0958333333333 | 1.08468265762913 | 0.899743774444297 |
31 | 91.5 | 99.2242286703336 | 90.5541666666666 | 1.0957444844651 | 0.922153804833325 |
32 | 87.7 | 101.738817576633 | 94.4791666666666 | 1.07683864248697 | 0.862011197780448 |
33 | 95.3 | 100.404868946916 | 98.675 | 1.0175309748864 | 0.949157157412212 |
34 | 102.4 | 99.5143412731636 | 103.220833333333 | 0.964091628206485 | 1.0289974157485 |
35 | 114.2 | 101.867516168192 | 108.629166666667 | 0.937754742064595 | 1.12106394948755 |
36 | 111.7 | 105.000107794815 | 115.1 | 0.912251153734277 | 1.0638084316854 |
37 | 113.7 | 111.692392362941 | 121.691666666667 | 0.917831067832151 | 1.01797443491528 |
38 | 118.8 | 117.225805836221 | 127.316666666667 | 0.920742027775002 | 1.01342873399376 |
39 | 129 | 128.295045049417 | 131.058333333333 | 0.978915585040379 | 1.00549479483258 |
40 | 136.4 | 137.679249782879 | 131.9375 | 1.0435187098655 | 0.99070847796675 |
41 | 155 | 136.092743051417 | 129.6 | 1.05009832601402 | 1.1389292075731 |
42 | 166 | 135.92429553415 | 125.3125 | 1.08468265762913 | 1.22126805474812 |
43 | 168.7 | 132.055472786119 | 120.516666666667 | 1.0957444844651 | 1.27749343848271 |
44 | 145.5 | 124.303073964412 | 115.433333333333 | 1.07683864248697 | 1.17052616125693 |
45 | 127.3 | 111.763058454085 | 109.8375 | 1.0175309748864 | 1.13901678927566 |
46 | 91.5 | 100.161086073752 | 103.891666666667 | 0.964091628206485 | 0.913528432914808 |
47 | 69 | 91.3802923027695 | 97.4458333333333 | 0.937754742064595 | 0.755086225500165 |
48 | 54 | 82.7753890619639 | 90.7375 | 0.912251153734277 | 0.652367818646877 |
49 | 56.3 | 76.9065948921023 | 83.7916666666667 | 0.917831067832151 | 0.732056855188911 |
50 | 54.2 | 71.6529118864738 | 77.8208333333333 | 0.920742027775002 | 0.756424248129287 |
51 | 59.3 | 72.1868667668526 | 73.7416666666666 | 0.978915585040379 | 0.821479067536284 |
52 | 63.4 | 75.1637830726868 | 72.0291666666667 | 1.0435187098655 | 0.843491338623673 |
53 | 73.3 | 76.8934499223764 | 73.225 | 1.05009832601402 | 0.953267151805466 |
54 | 86.7 | 82.4720380684015 | 76.0333333333333 | 1.08468265762913 | 1.05126539892335 |
55 | 81.3 | 87.0066776685477 | 79.4041666666667 | 1.0957444844651 | 0.934411038078166 |
56 | 89.6 | 89.1532659425667 | 82.7916666666667 | 1.07683864248697 | 1.00501085465249 |
57 | 85.3 | 87.6602934864634 | 86.15 | 1.0175309748864 | 0.973074542730936 |
58 | 92.4 | 86.414746274908 | 89.6333333333333 | 0.964091628206485 | 1.06926194871939 |
59 | 96.8 | 86.6211869867916 | 92.3708333333333 | 0.937754742064595 | 1.11750950739985 |
60 | 93.6 | 85.4399226401628 | 93.6583333333333 | 0.912251153734277 | 1.09550660988077 |
61 | 97.6 | 86.7924003518778 | 94.5625 | 0.917831067832151 | 1.12452241906325 |
62 | 94.2 | 87.827280174388 | 95.3875 | 0.920742027775002 | 1.07255968547538 |
63 | 99.9 | 94.077866537318 | 96.1041666666667 | 0.978915585040379 | 1.06188632541292 |
64 | 106.4 | 101.225662851578 | 97.0041666666666 | 1.0435187098655 | 1.05111685122783 |
65 | 96 | 102.77399824893 | 97.8708333333333 | 1.05009832601402 | 0.934088404028781 |
66 | 94.9 | 107.546285503928 | 99.15 | 1.08468265762913 | 0.882410764400912 |
67 | 94.8 | 110.52409366638 | 100.866666666667 | 1.0957444844651 | 0.857731530340854 |
68 | 95.9 | 110.873998727064 | 102.9625 | 1.07683864248697 | 0.864945804255465 |
69 | 96.2 | 107.603900594237 | 105.75 | 1.0175309748864 | 0.894019635614886 |
70 | 103.1 | 105.045816989998 | 108.958333333333 | 0.964091628206485 | 0.981476492393947 |
71 | 106.9 | 105.309857533854 | 112.3 | 0.937754742064595 | 1.01509965451843 |
72 | 114.2 | 105.437228139313 | 115.579166666667 | 0.912251153734277 | 1.08310889820727 |
73 | 118.2 | 109.118641076895 | 118.8875 | 0.917831067832151 | 1.08322463360505 |
74 | 123.9 | 112.238453185773 | 121.9 | 0.920742027775002 | 1.10389974632781 |
75 | 137.1 | 121.919857301842 | 124.545833333333 | 0.978915585040379 | 1.12450919016889 |
76 | 146.2 | 132.39208831956 | 126.870833333333 | 1.0435187098655 | 1.10429559542192 |
77 | 136.4 | 135.379551271665 | 128.920833333333 | 1.05009832601402 | 1.0075376873298 |
78 | 133.2 | 141.754464818907 | 130.6875 | 1.08468265762913 | 0.939652942643921 |
79 | 135.9 | NA | NA | 1.0957444844651 | NA |
80 | 127.1 | NA | NA | 1.07683864248697 | NA |
81 | 128.5 | NA | NA | 1.0175309748864 | NA |
82 | 126.6 | NA | NA | 0.964091628206485 | NA |
83 | 132.6 | NA | NA | 0.937754742064595 | NA |
84 | 130.9 | NA | NA | 0.912251153734277 | NA |