| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.871475564297101 |
| beta | 0.0245475616145864 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 7.52 | 8.37563799262463 | -0.855637992624629 |
| 14 | 7.38 | 7.48057671836509 | -0.100576718365088 |
| 15 | 7.52 | 7.48136342018255 | 0.0386365798174468 |
| 16 | 7.31 | 7.25304239436687 | 0.05695760563313 |
| 17 | 6.92 | 6.87369706579435 | 0.0463029342056487 |
| 18 | 7.09 | 7.03821336458867 | 0.0517866354113323 |
| 19 | 7.05 | 7.47783562792151 | -0.427835627921507 |
| 20 | 7.37 | 6.67353385067617 | 0.696466149323834 |
| 21 | 7.05 | 6.82751018790593 | 0.222489812094071 |
| 22 | 6.79 | 6.87531332956818 | -0.0853133295681756 |
| 23 | 6.35 | 6.50533548317349 | -0.155335483173493 |
| 24 | 6.44 | 6.23084033811217 | 0.209159661887832 |
| 25 | 6.89 | 6.30088102193582 | 0.589118978064176 |
| 26 | 7.16 | 6.77751690141078 | 0.382483098589218 |
| 27 | 7.46 | 7.24377242506974 | 0.216227574930264 |
| 28 | 7.91 | 7.21312580544671 | 0.696874194553287 |
| 29 | 7.86 | 7.42097001048678 | 0.439029989513224 |
| 30 | 8.02 | 8.02496325470674 | -0.00496325470673753 |
| 31 | 8.38 | 8.47919020187556 | -0.0991902018755617 |
| 32 | 8.5 | 8.14362066083826 | 0.356379339161744 |
| 33 | 8.4 | 7.94410924497152 | 0.455890755028483 |
| 34 | 8.24 | 8.21044734313328 | 0.0295526568667217 |
| 35 | 8.33 | 7.95946215492272 | 0.37053784507728 |
| 36 | 8.28 | 8.27955831008781 | 0.000441689912188181 |
| 37 | 8.15 | 8.30241879680808 | -0.152418796808078 |
| 38 | 8.06 | 8.17194357653461 | -0.111943576534612 |
| 39 | 7.79 | 8.26273229268893 | -0.472732292688932 |
| 40 | 7.28 | 7.71704655946329 | -0.43704655946329 |
| 41 | 7.52 | 6.93404998599283 | 0.58595001400717 |
| 42 | 7.23 | 7.60764103254972 | -0.377641032549719 |
| 43 | 7.13 | 7.67920122602538 | -0.549201226025378 |
| 44 | 7.21 | 7.01682490554739 | 0.19317509445261 |
| 45 | 6.99 | 6.74132069990566 | 0.248679300094341 |
| 46 | 6.77 | 6.77918581932219 | -0.00918581932218654 |
| 47 | 6.69 | 6.55262594018354 | 0.137374059816464 |
| 48 | 6.39 | 6.60143955995901 | -0.211439559959009 |
| 49 | 6.85 | 6.38217798955163 | 0.467822010448368 |
| 50 | 6.74 | 6.77518167831163 | -0.0351816783116332 |
| 51 | 6.56 | 6.84080227144291 | -0.280802271442907 |
| 52 | 6.62 | 6.46772523409691 | 0.152274765903089 |
| 53 | 6.71 | 6.35020642479087 | 0.359793575209127 |
| 54 | 6.67 | 6.6909388932271 | -0.0209388932270951 |
| 55 | 6.54 | 7.0222206271215 | -0.482220627121503 |
| 56 | 6.14 | 6.52479129950914 | -0.384791299509136 |
| 57 | 6.13 | 5.80100333367863 | 0.328996666321373 |
| 58 | 5.86 | 5.89407105746484 | -0.0340710574648408 |
| 59 | 5.88 | 5.68131126423429 | 0.198688735765712 |
| 60 | 5.75 | 5.7451532999546 | 0.0048467000454 |
| 61 | 5.53 | 5.79192038880108 | -0.261920388801075 |
| 62 | 5.86 | 5.47668145205877 | 0.383318547941227 |
| 63 | 5.9 | 5.85523777119939 | 0.0447622288006144 |
| 64 | 5.95 | 5.8275788738525 | 0.122421126147502 |
| 65 | 5.69 | 5.73047898106901 | -0.040478981069012 |
| 66 | 5.53 | 5.66401245468134 | -0.134012454681343 |
| 67 | 5.71 | 5.76800238768653 | -0.0580023876865328 |
| 68 | 5.6 | 5.65214891540503 | -0.0521489154050325 |
| 69 | 5.73 | 5.33709212928343 | 0.392907870716575 |
| 70 | 5.6 | 5.46287926496285 | 0.137120735037149 |
| 71 | 5.41 | 5.44742441213458 | -0.0374244121345768 |
| 72 | 5.13 | 5.29550621455222 | -0.165506214552222 |
| 73 | 5 | 5.15616767171066 | -0.156167671710662 |
| 74 | 5.04 | 5.01521508275603 | 0.0247849172439656 |
| 75 | 5.1 | 5.02825959176994 | 0.0717404082300552 |
| 76 | 4.96 | 5.03318535272674 | -0.073185352726739 |
| 77 | 4.9 | 4.76775285591851 | 0.132247144081495 |
| 78 | 4.8 | 4.83684615781492 | -0.0368461578149244 |
| 79 | 4.48 | 4.99834793767653 | -0.518347937676534 |
| 80 | 4.29 | 4.47254796003786 | -0.182547960037855 |
| 81 | 4.27 | 4.12037811979188 | 0.14962188020812 |
| 82 | 4.18 | 4.03391015893414 | 0.146089841065856 |
| 83 | 4.02 | 4.0142837678146 | 0.00571623218540207 |
| 84 | 3.82 | 3.88907740490428 | -0.0690774049042755 |
| 85 | 4.13 | 3.80511425504363 | 0.324885744956369 |
| 86 | 4.16 | 4.08981478867199 | 0.0701852113280079 |
| 87 | 3.98 | 4.13668620706814 | -0.156686207068141 |
| 88 | 4.26 | 3.92061412506493 | 0.33938587493507 |
| 89 | 4.7 | 4.06100547618493 | 0.63899452381507 |
| 90 | 4.96 | 4.56565422514723 | 0.394345774852769 |
| 91 | 5.13 | 5.06515711932675 | 0.0648428806732486 |
| 92 | 5.35 | 5.13677592970441 | 0.213224070295587 |
| 93 | 5.41 | 5.20359728774566 | 0.206402712254337 |
| 94 | 5.42 | 5.177039359083 | 0.242960640916996 |
| 95 | 5.51 | 5.24640877451824 | 0.263591225481764 |
| 96 | 5.75 | 5.36579782042251 | 0.384202179577487 |
| 97 | 5.67 | 5.84000790978482 | -0.170007909784824 |
| 98 | 5.46 | 5.7305867050939 | -0.270586705093902 |
| 99 | 5.56 | 5.50676942651143 | 0.0532305734885741 |
| 100 | 5.56 | 5.60971546971998 | -0.0497154697199784 |
| 101 | 5.54 | 5.46508996024628 | 0.0749100397537212 |
| 102 | 5.53 | 5.46792552849428 | 0.0620744715057189 |
| 103 | 5.65 | 5.67766341246218 | -0.0276634124621777 |
| 104 | 5.58 | 5.7173131328136 | -0.137313132813601 |
| 105 | 5.57 | 5.48776263599891 | 0.0822373640010854 |
| 106 | 5.36 | 5.3633288528487 | -0.00332885284869722 |
| 107 | 5.23 | 5.22650104152316 | 0.00349895847684234 |
| 108 | 5.11 | 5.1358942489417 | -0.0258942489417038 |
| 109 | 5.07 | 5.16290938400893 | -0.0929093840089248 |
| 110 | 5.04 | 5.0945221502508 | -0.0545221502508006 |
| 111 | 5.34 | 5.09198255987781 | 0.248017440122195 |
| 112 | 5.43 | 5.34997296822721 | 0.0800270317727874 |
| 113 | 5.31 | 5.34025264081314 | -0.0302526408131358 |
| 114 | 5.12 | 5.25348754210348 | -0.133487542103483 |
| 115 | 4.97 | 5.26718350146214 | -0.29718350146214 |
| 116 | 5 | 5.04100543498081 | -0.0410054349808142 |
| 117 | 4.64 | 4.92312338416449 | -0.283123384164495 |
| 118 | 4.8 | 4.48513920405105 | 0.314860795948951 |
| 119 | 5.1 | 4.63226438038374 | 0.467735619616261 |
| 120 | 5.11 | 4.94869523895465 | 0.161304761045352 |
| 121 | 5.12 | 5.13751469503164 | -0.0175146950316396 |
| 122 | 5.36 | 5.14960497812304 | 0.21039502187696 |
| 123 | 5.26 | 5.43751218078601 | -0.177512180786006 |
| 124 | 5.27 | 5.30881085179009 | -0.0388108517900916 |
| 125 | 5.1 | 5.18710744539813 | -0.0871074453981278 |
| 126 | 4.94 | 5.04154934644923 | -0.101549346449232 |
| 127 | 4.68 | 5.05896932331262 | -0.378969323312617 |
| 128 | 4.41 | 4.79107067575949 | -0.381070675759492 |
| 129 | 4.6 | 4.34686596456723 | 0.253134035432772 |
| 130 | 4.53 | 4.45759836692951 | 0.072401633070486 |
| 131 | 4.18 | 4.41327977160551 | -0.233279771605512 |
| 132 | 4 | 4.08353482819914 | -0.083534828199137 |
| 133 | 3.87 | 4.00678157826557 | -0.136781578265571 |
| 134 | 4.09 | 3.90260062928144 | 0.187399370718556 |
| 135 | 4.13 | 4.07983626295219 | 0.0501637370478134 |
| 136 | 3.74 | 4.13496082476774 | -0.394960824767744 |
| 137 | 3.81 | 3.69143458412817 | 0.118565415871825 |
| 138 | 4.11 | 3.7145232936293 | 0.395476706370698 |
| 139 | 4.14 | 4.09883956543653 | 0.0411604345634711 |
| 140 | 3.99 | 4.18038425635491 | -0.190384256354912 |
| 141 | 4.28 | 3.9833468668938 | 0.2966531331062 |
| 142 | 4.37 | 4.11897746177208 | 0.251022538227922 |
| 143 | 4.24 | 4.20079469780748 | 0.0392053021925154 |
| 144 | 4.19 | 4.13847899715549 | 0.0515210028445079 |
| 145 | 4.01 | 4.18810158089307 | -0.178101580893071 |
| 146 | 3.95 | 4.10701257457881 | -0.157012574578812 |
| 147 | 4.3 | 3.97234096973362 | 0.327659030266378 |
| 148 | 4.37 | 4.21991514054356 | 0.150084859456444 |
| 149 | 4.4 | 4.34337568196314 | 0.0566243180368557 |
| 150 | 4.29 | 4.36594332351766 | -0.0759433235176603 |
| 151 | 4.12 | 4.30817222494639 | -0.188172224946392 |
| 152 | 4.07 | 4.16732871887135 | -0.0973287188713456 |
| 153 | 3.93 | 4.12356567422082 | -0.193565674220815 |
| 154 | 3.79 | 3.83177728177716 | -0.0417772817771564 |
| 155 | 3.67 | 3.64310003316328 | 0.0268999668367198 |
| 156 | 3.53 | 3.57468139703404 | -0.0446813970340409 |
| 157 | 3.69 | 3.50195963428054 | 0.188040365719459 |
| 158 | 3.69 | 3.7323450974838 | -0.0423450974837958 |
| 159 | 3.48 | 3.75281374369321 | -0.272813743693213 |
| 160 | 3.31 | 3.44938005299127 | -0.139380052991269 |
| 161 | 3.16 | 3.29079819968157 | -0.130798199681566 |
| 162 | 3.25 | 3.11838339145656 | 0.131616608543444 |
| 163 | 3.14 | 3.20573828753056 | -0.0657382875305581 |
| 164 | 3.19 | 3.15434814539689 | 0.0356518546031142 |
| 165 | 3.43 | 3.1891519582239 | 0.240848041776095 |
| 166 | 3.45 | 3.30268360051925 | 0.14731639948075 |
| 167 | 3.31 | 3.2997582153247 | 0.0102417846752973 |
| 168 | 3.51 | 3.21570108887967 | 0.294298911120333 |
| 169 | 3.53 | 3.47529765021595 | 0.0547023497840486 |
| 170 | 3.83 | 3.56260646077906 | 0.267393539220938 |
| 171 | 4.02 | 3.83513073647071 | 0.184869263529292 |
| 172 | 3.99 | 3.96717018670036 | 0.0228298132996447 |
| 173 | 4.11 | 3.97643202738113 | 0.133567972618874 |
| 174 | 3.96 | 4.10368044680997 | -0.143680446809967 |
| 175 | 3.83 | 3.94774909926567 | -0.11774909926567 |
| 176 | 3.71 | 3.90209773761292 | -0.19209773761292 |
| 177 | 3.81 | 3.79493479059162 | 0.0150652094083763 |
| 178 | 3.73 | 3.7058657535161 | 0.0241342464839009 |
| 179 | 3.99 | 3.58047830387445 | 0.40952169612555 |
| 180 | 4.17 | 3.89289589782873 | 0.277104102171272 |
| 181 | 4 | 4.12576486593998 | -0.125764865939981 |
| 182 | 4.1 | 4.10955830182926 | -0.00955830182926132 |
| 183 | 4.24 | 4.14296964248259 | 0.0970303575174096 |
| 184 | 4.45 | 4.18434904527403 | 0.265650954725969 |
| 185 | 4.62 | 4.43452774030306 | 0.185472259696937 |
| 186 | 4.49 | 4.58386558621576 | -0.0938655862157551 |
| 187 | 4.45 | 4.48812621656148 | -0.0381262165614844 |
| 188 | 4.49 | 4.52917195638453 | -0.0391719563845268 |
| 189 | 4.36 | 4.62628129720942 | -0.266281297209421 |
| 190 | 4.32 | 4.2960379978088 | 0.0239620021911975 |
| 191 | 4.45 | 4.21720725043353 | 0.232792749566466 |
| 192 | 4.13 | 4.36166700845498 | -0.231667008454976 |
| 193 | 4.14 | 4.09913202090197 | 0.040867979098028 |
| 194 | 4.3 | 4.25064843032886 | 0.0493515696711349 |
| 195 | 4.42 | 4.35681344240419 | 0.0631865575958122 |
| 196 | 4.67 | 4.39211629778647 | 0.277883702213532 |
| 197 | 4.96 | 4.64659484547709 | 0.313405154522914 |
| 198 | 4.73 | 4.87497945774417 | -0.144979457744171 |
| 199 | 4.52 | 4.74729026235699 | -0.227290262356991 |
| 200 | 4.36 | 4.62693771570353 | -0.266937715703526 |
| 201 | 4.15 | 4.489548169305 | -0.339548169304996 |
| 202 | 3.92 | 4.13045380209994 | -0.210453802099938 |
| 203 | 3.88 | 3.86959634204591 | 0.0104036579540883 |
| 204 | 4.2 | 3.76093116068196 | 0.439068839318044 |
| 205 | 3.95 | 4.11841747254847 | -0.168417472548465 |
| 206 | 3.78 | 4.07970698436791 | -0.299706984367913 |
| 207 | 3.69 | 3.86427004121852 | -0.174270041218524 |
| 208 | 3.77 | 3.70062323223619 | 0.069376767763806 |
| 209 | 3.66 | 3.75270473516795 | -0.0927047351679482 |
| 210 | 3.53 | 3.56866556344683 | -0.0386655634468256 |
| 211 | 3.5 | 3.50047422939655 | -0.000474229396550729 |
| 212 | 3.14 | 3.53343302312537 | -0.393433023125372 |
| 213 | 3.42 | 3.22514035467013 | 0.194859645329872 |
| 214 | 3.3 | 3.34008304813898 | -0.0400830481389849 |
| 215 | 2.81 | 3.2512910771088 | -0.441291077108801 |
| 216 | 3.15 | 2.79350060496157 | 0.356499395038425 |
| 217 | 3.37 | 3.00534372246208 | 0.364656277537919 |
| 218 | 4.05 | 3.38651646673838 | 0.663483533261615 |
| 219 | 4 | 4.03995955546532 | -0.0399595554653152 |
| 220 | 4.2 | 4.04128003906012 | 0.158719960939876 |
| 221 | 4.21 | 4.16409353763894 | 0.0459064623610601 |
| 222 | 4.24 | 4.11400549696535 | 0.125994503034652 |
| 223 | 4.24 | 4.21339967226553 | 0.0266003277344682 |
| 224 | 4.17 | 4.23505335372546 | -0.0650533537254638 |
| 225 | 4.12 | 4.36249756155908 | -0.242497561559076 |
| 226 | 4.35 | 4.07309552146905 | 0.276904478530947 |
| 227 | 3.98 | 4.20009394450946 | -0.220093944509458 |
| 228 | 3.62 | 4.08914669228969 | -0.469146692289693 |
| 229 | 4.39 | 3.57842760834553 | 0.811572391654466 |
| 230 | 5.01 | 4.42762590321049 | 0.582374096789514 |
| 231 | 4.07 | 4.93872328469529 | -0.868723284695292 |
| 232 | 3.7 | 4.2495001752881 | -0.549500175288101 |
| 233 | 3.59 | 3.73247897677145 | -0.142478976771446 |
| 234 | 3.44 | 3.52480194784716 | -0.0848019478471627 |
| 235 | 3.33 | 3.41341118403994 | -0.0834111840399352 |
| 236 | 2.98 | 3.30949072349459 | -0.329490723494593 |
| 237 | 3.14 | 3.11070697674572 | 0.0292930232542794 |
| 238 | 2.55 | 3.10318475493037 | -0.553184754930369 |
| 239 | 2.49 | 2.47584648416498 | 0.0141535158350239 |
| 240 | 2.53 | 2.48024249872275 | 0.0497575012772522 |
| 241 | 2.43 | 2.52865763638119 | -0.098657636381192 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 242 | 2.4598391332442 | 1.94487060186389 | 2.97480766462452 |
| 243 | 2.31527395091244 | 1.63829324849572 | 2.99225465332916 |
| 244 | 2.33524083497061 | 1.49886157117955 | 3.17162009876167 |
| 245 | 2.3139656690657 | 1.34409790423129 | 3.28383343390011 |
| 246 | 2.23753244619138 | 1.16407360483125 | 3.31099128755152 |
| 247 | 2.18730331012471 | 1.00803766049788 | 3.36656895975155 |
| 248 | 2.11919837981383 | 0.849223947698633 | 3.38917281192903 |
| 249 | 2.19551653053934 | 0.75878947213964 | 3.63224358893904 |
| 250 | 2.09151009516671 | 0.598366283829977 | 3.58465390650345 |
| 251 | 2.02520187436471 | 0.455968601244265 | 3.59443514748515 |
| 252 | 2.01482518294417 | 0.33117939023158 | 3.69847097565677 |
| 253 | 1.99423630771067 | -12.4372921861154 | 16.4257648015368 |
