| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.111972116184924 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 8.87 | 9.14 | -0.270000000000001 |
| 4 | 8.81 | 9.08976752863007 | -0.279767528630069 |
| 5 | 8.87 | 8.99844136640954 | -0.128441366409536 |
| 6 | 9.06 | 9.04405951480698 | 0.015940485193024 |
| 7 | 9.12 | 9.23584440466705 | -0.115844404667055 |
| 8 | 8.66 | 9.2828730615283 | -0.622873061528301 |
| 9 | 8.17 | 8.7531286467144 | -0.583128646714396 |
| 10 | 8.04 | 8.19783449813373 | -0.157834498133735 |
| 11 | 7.71 | 8.05016143537071 | -0.340161435370713 |
| 12 | 7.55 | 7.68207283960775 | -0.132072839607755 |
| 13 | 7.52 | 7.50728436426632 | 0.0127156357336773 |
| 14 | 7.38 | 7.47870816090806 | -0.0987081609080587 |
| 15 | 7.52 | 7.32765559924646 | 0.192344400753538 |
| 16 | 7.31 | 7.48919280883516 | -0.179192808835156 |
| 17 | 6.92 | 7.25912821082476 | -0.339128210824763 |
| 18 | 7.09 | 6.83115530740071 | 0.258844692599292 |
| 19 | 7.05 | 7.03013869539429 | 0.0198613046057137 |
| 20 | 7.37 | 6.99236260770118 | 0.377637392298819 |
| 21 | 7.05 | 7.35464746566744 | -0.304647465667436 |
| 22 | 6.79 | 7.00053544424628 | -0.210535444246279 |
| 23 | 6.35 | 6.71696134502209 | -0.366961345022091 |
| 24 | 6.44 | 6.2358719066619 | 0.2041280933381 |
| 25 | 6.89 | 6.34872856124576 | 0.541271438754237 |
| 26 | 7.16 | 6.85933586967353 | 0.300664130326468 |
| 27 | 7.46 | 7.16300186860709 | 0.296998131392914 |
| 28 | 7.91 | 7.49625737788212 | 0.413742622117882 |
| 29 | 7.86 | 7.99258501483656 | -0.132585014836557 |
| 30 | 8.02 | 7.9277391901509 | 0.0922608098491011 |
| 31 | 8.38 | 8.09806982827064 | 0.281930171729364 |
| 32 | 8.5 | 8.48963814621555 | 0.0103618537844472 |
| 33 | 8.4 | 8.6107983849114 | -0.210798384911396 |
| 34 | 8.24 | 8.4871948436645 | -0.247194843664504 |
| 35 | 8.33 | 8.29951591390939 | 0.0304840860906133 |
| 36 | 8.28 | 8.39292928153892 | -0.112929281538918 |
| 37 | 8.15 | 8.33028435090576 | -0.18028435090576 |
| 38 | 8.06 | 8.18009753061982 | -0.120097530619818 |
| 39 | 7.79 | 8.07664995596773 | -0.286649955967733 |
| 40 | 7.28 | 7.77455315379371 | -0.494553153793711 |
| 41 | 7.52 | 7.2091769905975 | 0.310823009402498 |
| 42 | 7.23 | 7.48398050071927 | -0.253980500719265 |
| 43 | 7.13 | 7.16554176658402 | -0.0355417665840232 |
| 44 | 7.21 | 7.06156207976666 | 0.148437920233341 |
| 45 | 6.99 | 7.15818298781728 | -0.168182987817275 |
| 46 | 6.77 | 6.91935118276507 | -0.149351182765073 |
| 47 | 6.69 | 6.68262801477614 | 0.0073719852238554 |
| 48 | 6.39 | 6.60345347156214 | -0.213453471562145 |
| 49 | 6.85 | 6.27955263464431 | 0.570447365355688 |
| 50 | 6.74 | 6.8034268333153 | -0.0634268333153027 |
| 51 | 6.56 | 6.68632479656608 | -0.126324796566081 |
| 52 | 6.62 | 6.49217994176795 | 0.127820058232055 |
| 53 | 6.71 | 6.56649222417907 | 0.143507775820931 |
| 54 | 6.67 | 6.67256109352673 | -0.0025610935267304 |
| 55 | 6.54 | 6.6322743224648 | -0.0922743224647951 |
| 56 | 6.14 | 6.49194217130888 | -0.351942171308882 |
| 57 | 6.13 | 6.05253446161271 | 0.0774655383872904 |
| 58 | 5.86 | 6.05120844187734 | -0.191208441877339 |
| 59 | 5.88 | 5.75979842800791 | 0.120201571992088 |
| 60 | 5.75 | 5.79325765239262 | -0.0432576523926196 |
| 61 | 5.53 | 5.65841400151303 | -0.128414001513026 |
| 62 | 5.86 | 5.42403521401584 | 0.435964785984161 |
| 63 | 5.9 | 5.80285111368459 | 0.0971488863154075 |
| 64 | 5.95 | 5.85372908007034 | 0.0962709199296627 |
| 65 | 5.69 | 5.91450873870193 | -0.224508738701931 |
| 66 | 5.53 | 5.62937002012747 | -0.0993700201274681 |
| 67 | 5.71 | 5.45824334868846 | 0.251756651311543 |
| 68 | 5.6 | 5.66643307369944 | -0.0664330736994403 |
| 69 | 5.73 | 5.54899442185264 | 0.181005578147356 |
| 70 | 5.6 | 5.69926199947908 | -0.0992619994790802 |
| 71 | 5.41 | 5.55814742334066 | -0.14814742334066 |
| 72 | 5.13 | 5.35155904284186 | -0.221559042841863 |
| 73 | 5 | 5.04675060795495 | -0.0467506079549533 |
| 74 | 5.04 | 4.91151584344931 | 0.128484156550694 |
| 75 | 5.1 | 4.96590248635452 | 0.134097513645478 |
| 76 | 4.96 | 5.04091766873254 | -0.0809176687325426 |
| 77 | 4.9 | 4.89185714612781 | 0.00814285387219105 |
| 78 | 4.8 | 4.83276891870766 | -0.0327689187076636 |
| 79 | 4.48 | 4.72909971353487 | -0.249099713534874 |
| 80 | 4.29 | 4.38120749146932 | -0.0912074914693166 |
| 81 | 4.27 | 4.18099479563758 | 0.0890052043624214 |
| 82 | 4.18 | 4.17096089672151 | 0.00903910327849022 |
| 83 | 4.02 | 4.08197302424402 | -0.0619730242440166 |
| 84 | 3.82 | 3.91503377357303 | -0.0950337735730344 |
| 85 | 4.13 | 3.70439264083702 | 0.425607359162977 |
| 86 | 4.16 | 4.06204879750638 | 0.097951202493622 |
| 87 | 3.98 | 4.10301660093245 | -0.123016600932447 |
| 88 | 4.26 | 3.90924217180017 | 0.350757828199835 |
| 89 | 4.7 | 4.22851726809213 | 0.471482731907872 |
| 90 | 4.96 | 4.7213101873285 | 0.238689812671498 |
| 91 | 5.13 | 5.00803679076511 | 0.121963209234887 |
| 92 | 5.35 | 5.19169326939985 | 0.158306730600152 |
| 93 | 5.41 | 5.42941920903146 | -0.0194192090314624 |
| 94 | 5.42 | 5.48724479910157 | -0.067244799101573 |
| 95 | 5.51 | 5.48971525664374 | 0.0202847433562603 |
| 96 | 5.75 | 5.58198658228361 | 0.168013417716392 |
| 97 | 5.67 | 5.84079940021277 | -0.170799400212774 |
| 98 | 5.46 | 5.74167462992783 | -0.281674629927834 |
| 99 | 5.56 | 5.50013492553921 | 0.0598650744607907 |
| 100 | 5.56 | 5.60683814461215 | -0.0468381446121517 |
| 101 | 5.54 | 5.60159357844175 | -0.0615935784417534 |
| 102 | 5.53 | 5.57469681512023 | -0.0446968151202283 |
| 103 | 5.65 | 5.55969201814449 | 0.0903079818555099 |
| 104 | 5.58 | 5.68980399398124 | -0.109803993981242 |
| 105 | 5.57 | 5.6075090084096 | -0.0375090084096046 |
| 106 | 5.36 | 5.59330904536198 | -0.233309045361984 |
| 107 | 5.23 | 5.35718493782772 | -0.127184937827718 |
| 108 | 5.11 | 5.2129437711923 | -0.102943771192301 |
| 109 | 5.07 | 5.08141693928384 | -0.0114169392838424 |
| 110 | 5.04 | 5.04013856043188 | -0.000138560431875767 |
| 111 | 5.34 | 5.0101230455271 | 0.329876954472901 |
| 112 | 5.43 | 5.34706006620007 | 0.082939933799933 |
| 113 | 5.31 | 5.44634702610388 | -0.136347026103883 |
| 114 | 5.12 | 5.31107996105551 | -0.19107996105551 |
| 115 | 4.97 | 5.09968433345559 | -0.129684333455592 |
| 116 | 5 | 4.93516330420254 | 0.064836695797462 |
| 117 | 4.64 | 4.97242320623742 | -0.332423206237419 |
| 118 | 4.8 | 4.57520107636604 | 0.224798923633963 |
| 119 | 5.1 | 4.76037228756142 | 0.339627712438575 |
| 120 | 5.11 | 5.09840112123822 | 0.0115988787617836 |
| 121 | 5.12 | 5.10969987223855 | 0.0103001277614538 |
| 122 | 5.36 | 5.12085319934097 | 0.239146800659029 |
| 123 | 5.26 | 5.38763097268962 | -0.127630972689618 |
| 124 | 5.27 | 5.27333986258682 | -0.00333986258682017 |
| 125 | 5.1 | 5.28296589110521 | -0.182965891105207 |
| 126 | 4.94 | 5.0924788130885 | -0.152478813088496 |
| 127 | 4.68 | 4.91540543771361 | -0.235405437713613 |
| 128 | 4.41 | 4.62904659269138 | -0.219046592691381 |
| 129 | 4.6 | 4.33451948216463 | 0.265480517835369 |
| 130 | 4.53 | 4.55424589755253 | -0.0242458975525253 |
| 131 | 4.18 | 4.48153103309477 | -0.301531033094768 |
| 132 | 4 | 4.09776796522372 | -0.0977679652237189 |
| 133 | 3.87 | 3.90682067926253 | -0.0368206792625254 |
| 134 | 4.09 | 3.77269778988613 | 0.317302210113866 |
| 135 | 4.13 | 4.02822678982274 | 0.101773210177263 |
| 136 | 3.74 | 4.07962255153722 | -0.339622551537218 |
| 137 | 3.81 | 3.65159429573747 | 0.158405704262527 |
| 138 | 4.11 | 3.73933131765951 | 0.370668682340489 |
| 139 | 4.14 | 4.08083587442465 | 0.0591641255753466 |
| 140 | 3.99 | 4.11746060676755 | -0.127460606767555 |
| 141 | 4.28 | 3.95318857289758 | 0.326811427102423 |
| 142 | 4.37 | 4.27978233998365 | 0.0902176600163491 |
| 143 | 4.24 | 4.37988420229293 | -0.139884202292933 |
| 144 | 4.19 | 4.23422107214135 | -0.0442210721413536 |
| 145 | 4.01 | 4.17926954511372 | -0.16926954511372 |
| 146 | 3.95 | 3.98031607594168 | -0.030316075941677 |
| 147 | 4.3 | 3.91692152076407 | 0.383078479235935 |
| 148 | 4.37 | 4.30981562874902 | 0.0601843712509851 |
| 149 | 4.4 | 4.38655460015925 | 0.0134453998407533 |
| 150 | 4.29 | 4.41806011003237 | -0.128060110032369 |
| 151 | 4.12 | 4.29372094851317 | -0.17372094851317 |
| 152 | 4.07 | 4.1042690462825 | -0.0342690462824979 |
| 153 | 3.93 | 4.05043186865061 | -0.120431868650608 |
| 154 | 3.79 | 3.89694685746169 | -0.106946857461694 |
| 155 | 3.67 | 3.74497179151238 | -0.0749717915123811 |
| 156 | 3.53 | 3.61657704136256 | -0.0865770413625651 |
| 157 | 3.69 | 3.46688282682817 | 0.223117173171831 |
| 158 | 3.69 | 3.65186572886542 | 0.0381342711345831 |
| 159 | 3.48 | 3.65613570390353 | -0.176135703903526 |
| 160 | 3.31 | 3.42641341640173 | -0.116413416401727 |
| 161 | 3.16 | 3.24337835981491 | -0.0833783598149087 |
| 162 | 3.25 | 3.08404230842241 | 0.165957691577594 |
| 163 | 3.14 | 3.19262494234551 | -0.0526249423455134 |
| 164 | 3.19 | 3.07673241618698 | 0.113267583813023 |
| 165 | 3.43 | 3.13941522724167 | 0.290584772758326 |
| 166 | 3.45 | 3.41195261917854 | 0.0380473808214608 |
| 167 | 3.31 | 3.43621286492441 | -0.126212864924412 |
| 168 | 3.51 | 3.28208054334906 | 0.227919456650936 |
| 169 | 3.53 | 3.50760116722999 | 0.0223988327700133 |
| 170 | 3.83 | 3.53010921193532 | 0.299890788064683 |
| 171 | 4.02 | 3.86368861809928 | 0.156311381900715 |
| 172 | 3.99 | 4.0711911343145 | -0.0811911343144969 |
| 173 | 4.11 | 4.03209999118985 | 0.0779000088101514 |
| 174 | 3.96 | 4.16082262002715 | -0.200822620027146 |
| 175 | 3.83 | 3.9883360862849 | -0.158336086284905 |
| 176 | 3.71 | 3.84060685963515 | -0.130606859635146 |
| 177 | 3.81 | 3.70598253317353 | 0.104017466826469 |
| 178 | 3.73 | 3.81762958905429 | -0.087629589054286 |
| 179 | 3.99 | 3.72781751852746 | 0.262182481472538 |
| 180 | 4.17 | 4.01717464580456 | 0.152825354195443 |
| 181 | 4 | 4.21428682412053 | -0.214286824120531 |
| 182 | 4.1 | 4.02029267495321 | 0.0797073250467912 |
| 183 | 4.24 | 4.12921767281414 | 0.110782327185863 |
| 184 | 4.45 | 4.28162220442503 | 0.168377795574971 |
| 185 | 4.62 | 4.51047582251411 | 0.109524177485889 |
| 186 | 4.49 | 4.69273947644062 | -0.202739476440619 |
| 187 | 4.45 | 4.54003830822934 | -0.0900383082293397 |
| 188 | 4.49 | 4.48995652831919 | 4.34716808097591e-05 |
| 189 | 4.36 | 4.52996139593528 | -0.169961395935284 |
| 190 | 4.32 | 4.38093045876267 | -0.0609304587626669 |
| 191 | 4.45 | 4.33410794635489 | 0.115892053645107 |
| 192 | 4.13 | 4.47708462485055 | -0.347084624850552 |
| 193 | 4.14 | 4.11822082491079 | 0.0217791750892138 |
| 194 | 4.3 | 4.13065948523429 | 0.169340514765714 |
| 195 | 4.42 | 4.30962090102845 | 0.110379098971552 |
| 196 | 4.67 | 4.44198028232288 | 0.228019717677122 |
| 197 | 4.96 | 4.71751213264307 | 0.242487867356926 |
| 198 | 4.73 | 5.0346640123002 | -0.304664012300198 |
| 199 | 4.52 | 4.77055013811756 | -0.250550138117556 |
| 200 | 4.36 | 4.53249550894211 | -0.172495508942107 |
| 201 | 4.15 | 4.35318082177347 | -0.203180821773465 |
| 202 | 3.92 | 4.1204302351913 | -0.200430235191298 |
| 203 | 3.88 | 3.86798763760949 | 0.0120123623905135 |
| 204 | 4.2 | 3.82933268724673 | 0.370667312753268 |
| 205 | 3.95 | 4.1908370906563 | -0.240837090656295 |
| 206 | 3.78 | 3.91387005195969 | -0.133870051959689 |
| 207 | 3.69 | 3.72888033894798 | -0.038880338947977 |
| 208 | 3.77 | 3.63452682511798 | 0.135473174882015 |
| 209 | 3.66 | 3.72969604319581 | -0.0696960431958145 |
| 210 | 3.53 | 3.61189202974946 | -0.0818920297494636 |
| 211 | 3.5 | 3.47272240587974 | 0.027277594120263 |
| 212 | 3.14 | 3.44577673581782 | -0.305776735817816 |
| 213 | 3.42 | 3.05153826762818 | 0.368461732371823 |
| 214 | 3.3 | 3.37279570753501 | -0.0727957075350134 |
| 215 | 2.81 | 3.24464461811314 | -0.434644618113138 |
| 216 | 3.15 | 2.70597654043462 | 0.444023459565377 |
| 217 | 3.37 | 3.09569478683791 | 0.274305213162091 |
| 218 | 4.05 | 3.34640932203622 | 0.703590677963775 |
| 219 | 4 | 4.10519185917581 | -0.105191859175814 |
| 220 | 4.2 | 4.04341330409847 | 0.156586695901529 |
| 221 | 4.21 | 4.26094664780497 | -0.0509466478049712 |
| 222 | 4.24 | 4.26524204383772 | -0.0252420438377197 |
| 223 | 4.24 | 4.29241563877238 | -0.052415638772378 |
| 224 | 4.17 | 4.28654654877785 | -0.11654654877785 |
| 225 | 4.12 | 4.20349658507715 | -0.0834965850771452 |
| 226 | 4.35 | 4.14414729575184 | 0.205852704248157 |
| 227 | 3.98 | 4.3971970586689 | -0.417197058668898 |
| 228 | 3.62 | 3.98048262114362 | -0.360482621143615 |
| 229 | 4.39 | 3.58011861920628 | 0.809881380793723 |
| 230 | 5.01 | 4.44080275127252 | 0.569197248727482 |
| 231 | 4.07 | 5.12453697173917 | -1.05453697173917 |
| 232 | 3.7 | 4.0664582354183 | -0.366458235418295 |
| 233 | 3.59 | 3.65542513130512 | -0.0654251313051155 |
| 234 | 3.44 | 3.5380993409012 | -0.098099340901205 |
| 235 | 3.33 | 3.37711495010415 | -0.047114950104151 |
| 236 | 2.98 | 3.26183938943704 | -0.281839389437042 |
| 237 | 3.14 | 2.88028123657751 | 0.25971876342249 |
| 238 | 2.55 | 3.06936249613086 | -0.519362496130858 |
| 239 | 2.49 | 2.421208378372 | 0.0687916216279993 |
| 240 | 2.53 | 2.36891112182148 | 0.161088878178519 |
| 241 | 2.43 | 2.42694858440498 | 0.00305141559501543 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 242 | 2.32729025786652 | 1.87049613198449 | 2.78408438374855 |
| 243 | 2.22458051573304 | 1.54145074411052 | 2.90771028735555 |
| 244 | 2.12187077359956 | 1.23912023576544 | 3.00462131143367 |
| 245 | 2.01916103146607 | 0.946016198424029 | 3.09230586450812 |
| 246 | 1.91645128933259 | 0.655867089634457 | 3.17703548903073 |
| 247 | 1.81374154719911 | 0.365715696147413 | 3.26176739825081 |
| 248 | 1.71103180506563 | 0.0739639589525323 | 3.34809965117873 |
| 249 | 1.60832206293215 | -0.22032268240661 | 3.43696680827091 |
| 250 | 1.50561232079867 | -0.517717251634689 | 3.52894189323202 |
| 251 | 1.40290257866518 | -0.818580320796022 | 3.62438547812639 |
| 252 | 1.3001928365317 | -1.12314061640808 | 3.72352628947149 |
| 253 | 1.19748309439822 | -1.43154164702874 | 3.82650783582519 |
