| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[359]) |
| 347 | 709.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 348 | 702.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 349 | 784.8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 350 | 810.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 351 | 755.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 352 | 656.8 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 353 | 615.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 354 | 745.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 355 | 694.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 356 | 675.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 357 | 643.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 358 | 622.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 359 | 634.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 360 | 588 | 613.6 | 546.5887 | 680.6113 | 0.227 | 0.2695 | 0.0048 | 0.2695 |
| 361 | 689.7 | 682.5 | 532.6583 | 832.3417 | 0.4625 | 0.8918 | 0.0904 | 0.7345 |
| 362 | 673.9 | 694.9 | 444.1668 | 945.6332 | 0.4348 | 0.5162 | 0.1823 | 0.6813 |
| 363 | 647.9 | 625.9 | 258.8642 | 992.9358 | 0.4532 | 0.3989 | 0.2443 | 0.4815 |
| 364 | 568.8 | 513.4 | 16.4312 | 1010.3688 | 0.4135 | 0.2979 | 0.2858 | 0.3163 |
| 365 | 545.7 | 458 | -181.2467 | 1097.2467 | 0.394 | 0.367 | 0.315 | 0.2941 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 360 | 0.0557 | -0.0417 | 0 | 655.36 | 0 | 0 |
| 361 | 0.112 | 0.0105 | 0.0261 | 51.84 | 353.6 | 18.8043 |
| 362 | 0.1841 | -0.0302 | 0.0275 | 441 | 382.7333 | 19.5636 |
| 363 | 0.2992 | 0.0351 | 0.0294 | 484 | 408.05 | 20.2002 |
| 364 | 0.4939 | 0.1079 | 0.0451 | 3069.16 | 940.272 | 30.6639 |
| 365 | 0.7121 | 0.1915 | 0.0695 | 7691.29 | 2065.4417 | 45.4471 |
