| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0770948683103005 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 614 | 617 | -3 |
| 3 | 647 | 616.768715395069 | 30.2312846049309 |
| 4 | 580 | 619.099392300537 | -39.0993923005375 |
| 5 | 614 | 616.085029800115 | -2.08502980011474 |
| 6 | 636 | 615.924284702252 | 20.0757152977482 |
| 7 | 388 | 617.472019329367 | -229.472019329367 |
| 8 | 356 | 599.780904218271 | -243.780904218271 |
| 9 | 639 | 580.986647510997 | 58.013352489003 |
| 10 | 753 | 585.459179281376 | 167.540820718624 |
| 11 | 611 | 598.375716791278 | 12.6242832087222 |
| 12 | 639 | 599.348984242766 | 39.6510157572338 |
| 13 | 630 | 602.40587408094 | 27.5941259190603 |
| 14 | 586 | 604.533239584808 | -18.5332395848076 |
| 15 | 695 | 603.104421919654 | 91.8955780803465 |
| 16 | 552 | 610.189099410057 | -58.1890994100568 |
| 17 | 619 | 605.703018453943 | 13.2969815460566 |
| 18 | 681 | 606.728147495161 | 74.2718525048389 |
| 19 | 421 | 612.454126183184 | -191.454126183184 |
| 20 | 307 | 597.693995537628 | -290.693995537628 |
| 21 | 754 | 575.282980233059 | 178.717019766941 |
| 22 | 690 | 589.061145336801 | 100.938854663199 |
| 23 | 644 | 596.843013044453 | 47.1569869555474 |
| 24 | 643 | 600.478574743701 | 42.5214252562989 |
| 25 | 608 | 603.756758424202 | 4.24324157579827 |
| 26 | 651 | 604.083890574697 | 46.9161094253033 |
| 27 | 691 | 607.700881852472 | 83.2991181475279 |
| 28 | 627 | 614.12281639642 | 12.8771836035801 |
| 29 | 634 | 615.115581170546 | 18.8844188294545 |
| 30 | 731 | 616.571472953319 | 114.428527046681 |
| 31 | 475 | 625.393325176924 | -150.393325176924 |
| 32 | 337 | 613.798771577661 | -276.798771577661 |
| 33 | 803 | 592.459006734428 | 210.540993265572 |
| 34 | 722 | 608.690636884158 | 113.309363115842 |
| 35 | 590 | 617.426207311897 | -27.4262073118974 |
| 36 | 724 | 615.311787470936 | 108.688212529064 |
| 37 | 627 | 623.691090902746 | 3.30890909725417 |
| 38 | 696 | 623.946190813849 | 72.0538091861506 |
| 39 | 825 | 629.501169744311 | 195.498830255689 |
| 40 | 677 | 644.573126317691 | 32.4268736823086 |
| 41 | 656 | 647.073071873944 | 8.92692812605628 |
| 42 | 785 | 647.761292222238 | 137.238707777762 |
| 43 | 412 | 658.34169232544 | -246.34169232544 |
| 44 | 352 | 639.350011996274 | -287.350011996274 |
| 45 | 839 | 617.196800662458 | 221.803199337542 |
| 46 | 729 | 634.296689106189 | 94.7033108938111 |
| 47 | 696 | 641.597828388097 | 54.4021716119033 |
| 48 | 641 | 645.791956644311 | -4.79195664431074 |
| 49 | 695 | 645.422521377869 | 49.577478622131 |
| 50 | 638 | 649.244690563399 | -11.2446905633989 |
| 51 | 762 | 648.377782625224 | 113.622217374776 |
| 52 | 635 | 657.137472510856 | -22.1374725108562 |
| 53 | 721 | 655.430786982909 | 65.5692130170911 |
| 54 | 854 | 660.485836825672 | 193.514163174328 |
| 55 | 418 | 675.404785751774 | -257.404785751774 |
| 56 | 367 | 655.5601976918 | -288.5601976918 |
| 57 | 824 | 633.313687251157 | 190.686312748843 |
| 58 | 687 | 648.014623421105 | 38.9853765788946 |
| 59 | 601 | 651.020195894483 | -50.0201958944828 |
| 60 | 676 | 647.163895479142 | 28.8361045208578 |
| 61 | 740 | 649.38701115976 | 90.6129888402402 |
| 62 | 691 | 656.372807601601 | 34.6271923983991 |
| 63 | 683 | 659.042386439511 | 23.9576135604891 |
| 64 | 594 | 660.889395501986 | -66.8893955019859 |
| 65 | 729 | 655.732566364405 | 73.2674336355954 |
| 66 | 731 | 661.381109511975 | 69.6188904880255 |
| 67 | 386 | 666.748368706058 | -280.748368706058 |
| 68 | 331 | 645.104110192333 | -314.104110192333 |
| 69 | 706 | 620.888295181331 | 85.1117048186693 |
| 70 | 715 | 627.449970855991 | 87.5500291440088 |
| 71 | 657 | 634.199628823412 | 22.8003711765884 |
| 72 | 653 | 635.957420436697 | 17.0425795633034 |
| 73 | 642 | 637.271315863797 | 4.72868413620279 |
| 74 | 643 | 637.635873144559 | 5.36412685544121 |
| 75 | 718 | 638.049419798079 | 79.9505802019212 |
| 76 | 654 | 644.213199250078 | 9.78680074992189 |
| 77 | 632 | 644.967711365072 | -12.9677113650724 |
| 78 | 731 | 643.967967365096 | 87.0320326349038 |
| 79 | 392 | 650.677690459862 | -258.677690459862 |
| 80 | 344 | 630.734967979046 | -286.734967979046 |
| 81 | 792 | 608.629173382743 | 183.370826617257 |
| 82 | 852 | 622.766123112752 | 229.233876887248 |
| 83 | 649 | 640.438878663634 | 8.56112133636623 |
| 84 | 629 | 641.098897185649 | -12.0988971856494 |
| 85 | 685 | 640.166134300422 | 44.833865699578 |
| 86 | 617 | 643.622595272373 | -26.6225952723727 |
| 87 | 715 | 641.570129795771 | 73.4298702042294 |
| 88 | 715 | 647.231195969208 | 67.7688040307918 |
| 89 | 629 | 652.455822991509 | -23.4558229915086 |
| 90 | 916 | 650.647499406869 | 265.352500593131 |
| 91 | 531 | 671.104815495905 | -140.104815495905 |
| 92 | 357 | 660.303453195609 | -303.303453195609 |
| 93 | 917 | 636.920313413434 | 280.079686586566 |
| 94 | 828 | 658.513019967216 | 169.486980032784 |
| 95 | 708 | 671.579596373154 | 36.4204036268461 |
| 96 | 858 | 674.387422594574 | 183.612577405426 |
| 97 | 775 | 688.54301006976 | 86.4569899302403 |
| 98 | 785 | 695.208400322937 | 89.7915996770635 |
| 99 | 1006 | 702.130871875411 | 303.869128124589 |
| 100 | 789 | 725.557622291742 | 63.4423777082579 |
| 101 | 734 | 730.448704046453 | 3.55129595354742 |
| 102 | 906 | 730.722490740322 | 175.277509259678 |
| 103 | 532 | 744.235487234455 | -212.235487234455 |
| 104 | 387 | 727.873220295342 | -340.873220295342 |
| 105 | 991 | 701.593644266164 | 289.406355733836 |
| 106 | 841 | 723.905389149628 | 117.094610850372 |
| 107 | 892 | 732.932782752984 | 159.067217247016 |
| 108 | 782 | 745.196048919129 | 36.8039510808715 |
| 109 | 811 | 748.033444681007 | 62.966555318993 |
| 110 | 792 | 752.887842971278 | 39.112157028722 |
| 111 | 978 | 755.903189566739 | 222.096810433261 |
| 112 | 773 | 773.025713919229 | -0.0257139192291334 |
| 113 | 796 | 773.023731508012 | 22.9762684919875 |
| 114 | 946 | 774.795083901664 | 171.204916098336 |
| 115 | 594 | 787.994104362342 | -193.994104362342 |
| 116 | 438 | 773.038154433552 | -335.038154433552 |
| 117 | 1023 | 747.208432038571 | 275.791567961429 |
| 118 | 868 | 768.470546651649 | 99.529453348351 |
| 119 | 791 | 776.143756750536 | 14.8562432494637 |
| 120 | 760 | 777.28909686744 | -17.2890968674395 |
| 121 | 779 | 775.95619622124 | 3.04380377875975 |
| 122 | 852 | 776.190857872726 | 75.8091421272738 |
| 123 | 1001 | 782.035353701745 | 218.964646298255 |
| 124 | 734 | 798.916404272721 | -64.9164042727207 |
| 125 | 996 | 793.911682634137 | 202.088317365863 |
| 126 | 869 | 809.491654848508 | 59.5083451514915 |
| 127 | 599 | 814.079442881327 | -215.079442881327 |
| 128 | 426 | 797.497921556138 | -371.497921556138 |
| 129 | 1138 | 768.857338216217 | 369.142661783783 |
| 130 | 1091 | 797.316343114152 | 293.683656885848 |
| 131 | 830 | 819.957845966654 | 10.0421540333464 |
| 132 | 909 | 820.732044509406 | 88.2679554905937 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 827.537050913973 | 527.015716799264 | 1128.05838502868 |
| 134 | 827.537050913973 | 526.123947806296 | 1128.95015402165 |
| 135 | 827.537050913973 | 525.234809453687 | 1129.83929237426 |
| 136 | 827.537050913973 | 524.348278597406 | 1130.72582323054 |
| 137 | 827.537050913973 | 523.464332430809 | 1131.60976939714 |
| 138 | 827.537050913973 | 522.582948477794 | 1132.49115335015 |
| 139 | 827.537050913973 | 521.704104586129 | 1133.36999724182 |
| 140 | 827.537050913973 | 520.82777892096 | 1134.24632290699 |
| 141 | 827.537050913973 | 519.953949958478 | 1135.12015186947 |
| 142 | 827.537050913973 | 519.082596479752 | 1135.99150534819 |
| 143 | 827.537050913973 | 518.21369756472 | 1136.86040426323 |
| 144 | 827.537050913973 | 517.347232586322 | 1137.72686924162 |
