Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.123317799752845 |
beta | 0.175163040458387 |
gamma | 0.643865065278512 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 250746 | 247057.470352564 | 3688.52964743599 |
14 | 247772 | 244458.443820516 | 3313.55617948377 |
15 | 280449 | 278168.376587149 | 2280.62341285148 |
16 | 274925 | 273187.610133845 | 1737.38986615522 |
17 | 296013 | 294028.507188138 | 1984.49281186151 |
18 | 287881 | 286324.951242397 | 1556.04875760345 |
19 | 279098 | 277476.005626582 | 1621.99437341793 |
20 | 294763 | 290966.31185986 | 3796.68814013957 |
21 | 261924 | 277777.724410534 | -15853.7244105337 |
22 | 291596 | 277801.606114092 | 13794.3938859085 |
23 | 287537 | 285169.722382987 | 2367.27761701291 |
24 | 326201 | 329184.931718819 | -2983.93171881913 |
25 | 255598 | 262078.290993578 | -6480.29099357792 |
26 | 253086 | 258167.719188918 | -5081.71918891778 |
27 | 285261 | 290232.077361665 | -4971.07736166503 |
28 | 284747 | 283866.535544667 | 880.464455333189 |
29 | 300402 | 304538.85397798 | -4136.85397797974 |
30 | 288854 | 295503.97438145 | -6649.97438145045 |
31 | 295433 | 285168.437085921 | 10264.5629140793 |
32 | 307256 | 300626.883217707 | 6629.11678229278 |
33 | 273189 | 276431.614942403 | -3242.61494240334 |
34 | 287540 | 294754.407567488 | -7214.40756748809 |
35 | 290705 | 292636.162053943 | -1931.1620539435 |
36 | 337006 | 332562.482323149 | 4443.51767685113 |
37 | 268335 | 264020.39964918 | 4314.60035082028 |
38 | 259060 | 262085.846338908 | -3025.84633890755 |
39 | 293703 | 294365.963359734 | -662.96335973352 |
40 | 294262 | 291827.517536035 | 2434.48246396502 |
41 | 312404 | 309885.779154817 | 2518.2208451826 |
42 | 301014 | 300423.180505666 | 590.819494334166 |
43 | 309942 | 300854.793729645 | 9087.2062703548 |
44 | 317079 | 314417.103568544 | 2661.89643145638 |
45 | 293912 | 284375.799117748 | 9536.20088225242 |
46 | 304060 | 302523.980907388 | 1536.01909261203 |
47 | 301299 | 305147.513485255 | -3848.51348525478 |
48 | 357634 | 349074.745211924 | 8559.25478807616 |
49 | 281493 | 281695.410901786 | -202.410901785654 |
50 | 282478 | 275690.8074968 | 6787.19250320044 |
51 | 319111 | 311357.183772627 | 7753.81622737291 |
52 | 315223 | 312629.257137125 | 2593.74286287534 |
53 | 328445 | 331782.046487432 | -3337.04648743192 |
54 | 321081 | 321410.581175337 | -329.581175337429 |
55 | 328040 | 327405.867321257 | 634.132678742521 |
56 | 326362 | 336997.568841192 | -10635.5688411918 |
57 | 313566 | 309608.188854005 | 3957.81114599505 |
58 | 319768 | 322843.569777831 | -3075.56977783085 |
59 | 324315 | 322050.354144481 | 2264.64585551928 |
60 | 387243 | 374058.570508908 | 13184.4294910918 |
61 | 293308 | 302727.227519033 | -9419.22751903284 |
62 | 295109 | 299755.602411173 | -4646.60241117253 |
63 | 339190 | 334534.824408355 | 4655.17559164495 |
64 | 335678 | 332422.377179349 | 3255.62282065087 |
65 | 345401 | 348233.639914435 | -2832.63991443528 |
66 | 351002 | 339557.456555545 | 11444.543444455 |
67 | 351889 | 347738.484813221 | 4150.51518677932 |
68 | 355773 | 351668.222929354 | 4104.77707064583 |
69 | 333363 | 334918.201497101 | -1555.20149710146 |
70 | 336214 | 343968.705806762 | -7754.70580676233 |
71 | 343910 | 345976.835379331 | -2066.83537933056 |
72 | 405788 | 403885.176944602 | 1902.82305539818 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 318430.3838425 | 307039.402823894 | 329821.364861105 |
74 | 319544.506260067 | 308034.53359573 | 331054.478924403 |
75 | 360477.844595925 | 348812.623319676 | 372143.065872173 |
76 | 357231.356634847 | 345370.948413045 | 369091.764856649 |
77 | 369364.231739578 | 357265.626754832 | 381462.836724325 |
78 | 369317.221365542 | 356935.002253341 | 381699.440477744 |
79 | 371943.38650947 | 359230.413197296 | 384656.359821644 |
80 | 375219.497308251 | 362127.578120879 | 388311.416495624 |
81 | 354563.780266432 | 341044.297753709 | 368083.262779155 |
82 | 360135.615122776 | 346140.081792575 | 374131.148452977 |
83 | 366307.099188983 | 351787.627094074 | 380826.571283891 |
84 | 426752.15411058 | 411661.831313591 | 441842.47690757 |