| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.23686471684421 |
| beta | 0.331698570367038 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 279515 | 264738 | 14777 |
| 4 | 264417 | 283557.144645609 | -19140.1446456088 |
| 5 | 283706 | 292838.717516783 | -9132.71751678298 |
| 6 | 281288 | 303773.160281193 | -22485.1602811932 |
| 7 | 271146 | 309778.273414608 | -38632.2734146079 |
| 8 | 283944 | 308923.456765479 | -24979.4567654789 |
| 9 | 269155 | 309339.932501821 | -40184.9325018207 |
| 10 | 270899 | 302997.530296393 | -32098.5302963932 |
| 11 | 276507 | 296048.604147738 | -19541.6041477385 |
| 12 | 319957 | 290538.632099043 | 29418.3679009569 |
| 13 | 250746 | 298936.883115533 | -48190.883115533 |
| 14 | 247772 | 285165.99459897 | -37393.9945989696 |
| 15 | 280449 | 271014.548324914 | 9434.45167508634 |
| 16 | 274925 | 268696.351772981 | 6228.64822701865 |
| 17 | 296013 | 266108.1839853 | 29904.8160146998 |
| 18 | 287881 | 271477.617229378 | 16403.382770622 |
| 19 | 279098 | 274937.813169914 | 4160.18683008617 |
| 20 | 294763 | 275824.884231396 | 18938.1157686035 |
| 21 | 261924 | 281700.249216468 | -19776.2492164684 |
| 22 | 291596 | 276851.772924334 | 14744.227075666 |
| 23 | 287537 | 281338.399306373 | 6198.60069362691 |
| 24 | 326201 | 284287.878040183 | 41913.1219598172 |
| 25 | 255598 | 298989.883827985 | -43391.8838279846 |
| 26 | 253086 | 290076.943586409 | -36990.9435864086 |
| 27 | 285261 | 279773.867330105 | 5487.13266989455 |
| 28 | 284747 | 279963.459905674 | 4783.54009432637 |
| 29 | 300402 | 280362.227910472 | 20039.7720895278 |
| 30 | 288854 | 285949.137546995 | 2904.86245300493 |
| 31 | 295433 | 287705.61999105 | 7727.38000894967 |
| 32 | 307256 | 291211.509071666 | 16044.4909283336 |
| 33 | 273189 | 297948.0068317 | -24759.0068317 |
| 34 | 287540 | 293074.337725904 | -5534.3377259039 |
| 35 | 290705 | 292319.49430483 | -1614.49430483032 |
| 36 | 337006 | 292366.276401028 | 44639.7235989721 |
| 37 | 268335 | 306876.290597652 | -38541.2905976519 |
| 38 | 259060 | 298655.557327004 | -39595.5573270036 |
| 39 | 293703 | 287074.174073849 | 6628.82592615089 |
| 40 | 294262 | 286962.527798076 | 7299.47220192384 |
| 41 | 312404 | 287583.23661666 | 24820.7633833401 |
| 42 | 301014 | 294304.231101799 | 6709.76889820135 |
| 43 | 309942 | 297262.541035442 | 12679.4589645575 |
| 44 | 317079 | 302631.055691573 | 14447.9443084265 |
| 45 | 293912 | 309553.603707832 | -15641.6037078321 |
| 46 | 304060 | 308120.074814132 | -4060.07481413212 |
| 47 | 301299 | 309110.810791421 | -7811.81079142075 |
| 48 | 357634 | 308599.136976208 | 49034.8630237915 |
| 49 | 281493 | 325404.990274379 | -43911.990274379 |
| 50 | 282478 | 316744.949935482 | -34266.9499354819 |
| 51 | 319111 | 307677.204315961 | 11433.795684039 |
| 52 | 315223 | 310332.679758538 | 4890.32024146238 |
| 53 | 328445 | 311822.457897926 | 16622.5421020737 |
| 54 | 321081 | 317397.180147054 | 3683.81985294586 |
| 55 | 328040 | 320196.604822978 | 7843.39517702215 |
| 56 | 326362 | 324597.523554949 | 1764.47644505074 |
| 57 | 313566 | 327697.191757479 | -14131.1917574789 |
| 58 | 319768 | 325921.481947837 | -6153.48194783728 |
| 59 | 324315 | 325551.945263853 | -1236.94526385277 |
| 60 | 387243 | 326249.778719876 | 60993.2212801243 |
| 61 | 293308 | 346479.839329963 | -53171.8393299626 |
| 62 | 295109 | 335490.636705062 | -40381.6367050619 |
| 63 | 339190 | 324358.289971831 | 14831.710028169 |
| 64 | 335678 | 327469.330143811 | 8208.66985618934 |
| 65 | 345401 | 329656.541992533 | 15744.4580074673 |
| 66 | 351002 | 334865.72183154 | 16136.2781684598 |
| 67 | 351889 | 341435.50010981 | 10453.4998901895 |
| 68 | 355773 | 347480.536037643 | 8292.4639623572 |
| 69 | 333363 | 353665.21852325 | -20302.2185232503 |
| 70 | 336214 | 351481.731269075 | -15267.7312690752 |
| 71 | 343910 | 349291.186066799 | -5381.18606679927 |
| 72 | 405788 | 349019.627246744 | 56768.3727532565 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 367929.265874365 | 317722.828688937 | 418135.703059792 |
| 74 | 373392.479964079 | 320747.55066839 | 426037.409259769 |
| 75 | 378855.694053794 | 322617.006047813 | 435094.382059775 |
| 76 | 384318.908143509 | 323280.309899035 | 445357.506387982 |
| 77 | 389782.122233223 | 322764.440102795 | 456799.804363651 |
| 78 | 395245.336322938 | 321144.813027708 | 469345.859618168 |
| 79 | 400708.550412652 | 318517.408702223 | 482899.692123082 |
| 80 | 406171.764502367 | 314979.779197821 | 497363.749806913 |
| 81 | 411634.978592082 | 310621.164816306 | 512648.792367858 |
| 82 | 417098.192681796 | 305518.890204007 | 528677.495159585 |
| 83 | 422561.406771511 | 299738.165957603 | 545384.647585419 |
| 84 | 428024.620861225 | 293333.367997985 | 562715.873724466 |
