Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.245575870418928 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 250580 | 236422 | 14158 |
3 | 279515 | 239898.863173391 | 39616.1368266088 |
4 | 264417 | 249627.630457221 | 14789.369542779 |
5 | 283706 | 253259.542755636 | 30446.4572443639 |
6 | 281288 | 260736.457994593 | 20551.5420054065 |
7 | 271146 | 265783.420811022 | 5362.57918897766 |
8 | 283944 | 267100.340863046 | 16843.6591369541 |
9 | 269155 | 271236.737116643 | -2081.73711664317 |
10 | 270899 | 270725.51271224 | 173.487287759839 |
11 | 276507 | 270768.117003938 | 5738.88299606158 |
12 | 319957 | 272177.448190929 | 47779.5518090714 |
13 | 250746 | 283910.953214668 | -33164.9532146676 |
14 | 247772 | 275766.440961573 | -27994.4409615726 |
15 | 280449 | 268891.681755543 | 11557.3182444569 |
16 | 274925 | 271729.880243134 | 3195.11975686584 |
17 | 296013 | 272514.524558519 | 23498.4754414808 |
18 | 287881 | 278285.183118579 | 9595.81688142137 |
19 | 279098 | 280641.684201614 | -1543.68420161435 |
20 | 294763 | 280262.592610151 | 14500.407389849 |
21 | 261924 | 283823.542776342 | -21899.5427763422 |
22 | 291596 | 278445.543497265 | 13150.4565027346 |
23 | 287537 | 281674.978299331 | 5862.02170066925 |
24 | 326201 | 283114.549380887 | 43086.4506191128 |
25 | 255598 | 293695.541994938 | -38097.541994938 |
26 | 253086 | 284339.704958709 | -31253.7049587094 |
27 | 285261 | 276664.549159658 | 8596.45084034197 |
28 | 284747 | 278775.630057289 | 5971.36994271149 |
29 | 300402 | 280242.054428563 | 20159.9455714367 |
30 | 288854 | 285192.850609867 | 3661.14939013292 |
31 | 295433 | 286091.940558083 | 9341.05944191728 |
32 | 307256 | 288385.879361167 | 18870.1206388335 |
33 | 273189 | 293019.925661958 | -19830.9256619582 |
34 | 287540 | 288149.92883131 | -609.928831309779 |
35 | 290705 | 288000.145027667 | 2704.85497233272 |
36 | 337006 | 288664.392141855 | 48341.6078581451 |
37 | 268335 | 300535.924569069 | -32200.9245690693 |
38 | 259060 | 292628.154489726 | -33568.1544897259 |
39 | 293703 | 284384.625732554 | 9318.37426744559 |
40 | 294262 | 286672.993604172 | 7589.00639582827 |
41 | 312404 | 288536.670455442 | 23867.329544558 |
42 | 301014 | 294397.910682922 | 6616.08931707777 |
43 | 309942 | 296022.662575733 | 13919.337424267 |
44 | 317079 | 299440.915979352 | 17638.0840206479 |
45 | 293912 | 303772.403815245 | -9860.40381524485 |
46 | 304060 | 301350.926565634 | 2709.07343436603 |
47 | 301299 | 302016.209632307 | -717.209632307175 |
48 | 357634 | 301840.080252581 | 55793.9197474195 |
49 | 281493 | 315541.720658637 | -34048.7206586368 |
50 | 282478 | 307180.176446241 | -24702.1764462412 |
51 | 319111 | 301113.917964214 | 17997.0820357865 |
52 | 315223 | 305533.567050153 | 9689.43294984737 |
53 | 328445 | 307913.057980677 | 20531.9420193228 |
54 | 321081 | 312955.207513463 | 8125.79248653661 |
55 | 328040 | 314950.706076188 | 13089.2939238118 |
56 | 326362 | 318165.120824697 | 8196.87917530257 |
57 | 313566 | 320178.076562891 | -6612.07656289113 |
58 | 319768 | 318554.310105683 | 1213.68989431747 |
59 | 324315 | 318852.363057898 | 5462.63694210182 |
60 | 387243 | 320193.854879737 | 67049.1451202626 |
61 | 293308 | 336659.507053491 | -43351.5070534909 |
62 | 295109 | 326013.422974858 | -30904.4229748576 |
63 | 339190 | 318424.042403012 | 20765.9575969877 |
64 | 335678 | 323523.660514975 | 12154.3394850249 |
65 | 345401 | 326508.473013377 | 18892.5269866228 |
66 | 351002 | 331148.02177253 | 19853.9782274698 |
67 | 351889 | 336023.67975702 | 15865.3202429804 |
68 | 355773 | 339919.819585165 | 15853.1804148355 |
69 | 333363 | 343812.978164446 | -10449.9781644461 |
70 | 336214 | 341246.715680853 | -5032.71568085346 |
71 | 343910 | 340010.802146957 | 3899.19785304309 |
72 | 405788 | 340968.351053654 | 64819.6489463464 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 356886.492763902 | 311646.165149274 | 402126.82037853 |
74 | 356886.492763902 | 310301.969043997 | 403471.016483807 |
75 | 356886.492763902 | 308995.4867425 | 404777.498785304 |
76 | 356886.492763902 | 307723.711462663 | 406049.274065141 |
77 | 356886.492763902 | 306484.015912015 | 407288.969615789 |
78 | 356886.492763902 | 305274.08843765 | 408498.897090154 |
79 | 356886.492763902 | 304091.882358406 | 409681.103169398 |
80 | 356886.492763902 | 302935.57529812 | 410837.410229684 |
81 | 356886.492763902 | 301803.536208074 | 411969.44931973 |
82 | 356886.492763902 | 300694.298373019 | 413078.687154785 |
83 | 356886.492763902 | 299606.537125003 | 414166.448402801 |
84 | 356886.492763902 | 298539.05129878 | 415233.934229024 |