Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.22012398475082 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0 |
4 | 0.38 | 0.39 | -0.01 |
5 | 0.38 | 0.387798760152492 | -0.00779876015249181 |
6 | 0.38 | 0.386082065991609 | -0.00608206599160938 |
7 | 0.38 | 0.384743257390019 | -0.00474325739001891 |
8 | 0.38 | 0.383699152672629 | -0.00369915267262916 |
9 | 0.38 | 0.382884880446128 | -0.00288488044612839 |
10 | 0.38 | 0.382249849066797 | -0.00224984906679687 |
11 | 0.38 | 0.381754603325126 | -0.00175460332512561 |
12 | 0.38 | 0.381368373049542 | -0.00136837304954196 |
13 | 0.37 | 0.381067161321251 | -0.0110671613212511 |
14 | 0.37 | 0.368631013671337 | 0.00136898632866284 |
15 | 0.37 | 0.368932360397072 | 0.00106763960292816 |
16 | 0.38 | 0.369167373480746 | 0.0108326265192538 |
17 | 0.38 | 0.381551894395482 | -0.00155189439548176 |
18 | 0.39 | 0.381210285217236 | 0.00878971478276419 |
19 | 0.39 | 0.393145112260041 | -0.00314511226004105 |
20 | 0.38 | 0.392452797616872 | -0.0124527976168722 |
21 | 0.38 | 0.379711638184151 | 0.000288361815849236 |
22 | 0.38 | 0.379775113536105 | 0.000224886463894514 |
23 | 0.38 | 0.379824616440654 | 0.000175383559345543 |
24 | 0.39 | 0.379863222568597 | 0.0101367774314026 |
25 | 0.39 | 0.39209457040933 | -0.00209457040932992 |
26 | 0.4 | 0.391633505224487 | 0.00836649477551293 |
27 | 0.4 | 0.40347517139287 | -0.0034751713928699 |
28 | 0.4 | 0.402710202818179 | -0.0027102028181793 |
29 | 0.41 | 0.402113622174359 | 0.00788637782564117 |
30 | 0.41 | 0.413849603086589 | -0.00384960308658944 |
31 | 0.41 | 0.41300221311546 | -0.00300221311546028 |
32 | 0.41 | 0.412341354001414 | -0.002341354001414 |
33 | 0.41 | 0.41182596582891 | -0.00182596582891048 |
34 | 0.42 | 0.411424026954632 | 0.00857597304536817 |
35 | 0.42 | 0.423311804314494 | -0.0033118043144939 |
36 | 0.42 | 0.422582796752073 | -0.00258279675207257 |
37 | 0.42 | 0.422014261239205 | -0.0020142612392049 |
38 | 0.42 | 0.421570874028902 | -0.00157087402890199 |
39 | 0.42 | 0.421225086978119 | -0.00122508697811852 |
40 | 0.42 | 0.420955415950829 | -0.000955415950828709 |
41 | 0.42 | 0.420745105984638 | -0.000745105984637784 |
42 | 0.42 | 0.420581090286238 | -0.000581090286237651 |
43 | 0.42 | 0.420453178376931 | -0.00045317837693104 |
44 | 0.42 | 0.420353422946798 | -0.000353422946798077 |
45 | 0.42 | 0.420275626079446 | -0.000275626079446478 |
46 | 0.42 | 0.420214954168537 | -0.000214954168537507 |
47 | 0.42 | 0.42016763760042 | -0.000167637600420212 |
48 | 0.42 | 0.420130736543822 | -0.000130736543821675 |
49 | 0.42 | 0.420101958294843 | -0.000101958294843052 |
50 | 0.43 | 0.420079514828704 | 0.00992048517129618 |
51 | 0.44 | 0.432263251555271 | 0.00773674844472905 |
52 | 0.43 | 0.443966295451939 | -0.0139662954519394 |
53 | 0.43 | 0.430891978844851 | -0.00089197884485126 |
54 | 0.43 | 0.430695632907209 | -0.000695632907209143 |
55 | 0.44 | 0.43054250741975 | 0.00945749258024953 |
56 | 0.44 | 0.442624328372266 | -0.00262432837226634 |
57 | 0.44 | 0.442046650753668 | -0.00204665075366844 |
58 | 0.44 | 0.441596133834378 | -0.00159613383437768 |
59 | 0.44 | 0.441244786494559 | -0.00124478649455884 |
60 | 0.44 | 0.440970779131213 | -0.000970779131212574 |
61 | 0.44 | 0.440757087360537 | -0.00075708736053709 |
62 | 0.44 | 0.440590434273931 | -0.000590434273931184 |
63 | 0.44 | 0.44046046552882 | -0.000460465528820009 |
64 | 0.44 | 0.440359106021776 | -0.000359106021775746 |
65 | 0.45 | 0.440280058173314 | 0.00971994182668556 |
66 | 0.45 | 0.452419650499751 | -0.00241965049975063 |
67 | 0.45 | 0.451887027390041 | -0.00188702739004121 |
68 | 0.45 | 0.451471647401611 | -0.00147164740161143 |
69 | 0.45 | 0.451147702511421 | -0.00114770251142049 |
70 | 0.45 | 0.450895065661298 | -0.0008950656612981 |
71 | 0.45 | 0.45069804024132 | -0.000698040241319531 |
72 | 0.45 | 0.450544384841884 | -0.000544384841883849 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.45042455268125 | 0.44076417377898 | 0.46008493158352 |
74 | 0.450849105362501 | 0.43560925663604 | 0.466088954088962 |
75 | 0.451273658043751 | 0.430637911153181 | 0.471909404934322 |
76 | 0.451698210725002 | 0.425561838638653 | 0.47783458281135 |
77 | 0.452122763406252 | 0.420293146361113 | 0.483952380451391 |
78 | 0.452547316087503 | 0.414799182098311 | 0.490295450076694 |
79 | 0.452971868768753 | 0.409068052478651 | 0.496875685058855 |
80 | 0.453396421450004 | 0.403096930791855 | 0.503695912108152 |
81 | 0.453820974131254 | 0.396887271544033 | 0.510754676718475 |
82 | 0.454245526812504 | 0.390442610593733 | 0.518048443031276 |
83 | 0.454670079493755 | 0.383767473847845 | 0.525572685139665 |
84 | 0.455094632175005 | 0.376866808211332 | 0.533322456138678 |