Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999956670705821 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 50.12 | 49.98 | 0.140000000000001 |
3 | 50.37 | 50.1199939338988 | 0.250006066101186 |
4 | 50.39 | 50.3699891674136 | 0.0200108325863866 |
5 | 50.34 | 50.3899991329448 | -0.0499991329447482 |
6 | 50.32 | 50.3400021664271 | -0.0200021664271404 |
7 | 50.32 | 50.3200008666798 | -8.66679755517907e-07 |
8 | 50.32 | 50.3200000000376 | -3.75521835849213e-11 |
9 | 50.67 | 50.32 | 0.350000000000001 |
10 | 50.86 | 50.669984834747 | 0.190015165252959 |
11 | 50.95 | 50.859991766777 | 0.0900082332229957 |
12 | 51.02 | 50.9499961000068 | 0.0700038999932175 |
13 | 51.02 | 51.0199969667804 | 3.03321957773051e-06 |
14 | 51.06 | 51.0199999998686 | 0.0400000001314282 |
15 | 50.9 | 51.0599982668282 | -0.159998266828232 |
16 | 51.23 | 50.900006932612 | 0.329993067388024 |
17 | 51.29 | 51.2299857016333 | 0.0600142983666956 |
18 | 51.3 | 51.2899973996228 | 0.0100026003771845 |
19 | 51.3 | 51.2999995665944 | 4.33405617172866e-07 |
20 | 51.3 | 51.2999999999812 | 1.87796445061394e-11 |
21 | 51.46 | 51.3 | 0.160000000000004 |
22 | 51.47 | 51.4599930673129 | 0.0100069326870695 |
23 | 51.77 | 51.4699995664067 | 0.300000433593333 |
24 | 51.82 | 51.769987001193 | 0.0500129988070412 |
25 | 51.82 | 51.8199978329721 | 2.16702793665036e-06 |
26 | 51.84 | 51.8199999999061 | 0.0200000000939013 |
27 | 51.9 | 51.8399991334141 | 0.0600008665858809 |
28 | 51.94 | 51.8999974002048 | 0.0400025997952014 |
29 | 52.22 | 51.9399982667156 | 0.280001733284415 |
30 | 52.27 | 52.2199878677225 | 0.0500121322774731 |
31 | 52.27 | 52.2699978330096 | 2.1669903915722e-06 |
32 | 52.28 | 52.2699999999061 | 0.0100000000938891 |
33 | 52.53 | 52.2799995667071 | 0.250000433292946 |
34 | 52.73 | 52.5299891676577 | 0.200010832342315 |
35 | 52.72 | 52.7299913336718 | -0.00999133367180605 |
36 | 52.67 | 52.7200004329174 | -0.0500004329174359 |
37 | 52.67 | 52.6700021664835 | -2.16648346906823e-06 |
38 | 52.65 | 52.6700000000939 | -0.0200000000938729 |
39 | 52.69 | 52.6500008665859 | 0.0399991334141134 |
40 | 52.73 | 52.6899982668658 | 0.0400017331342184 |
41 | 52.84 | 52.7299982667531 | 0.110001733246868 |
42 | 52.83 | 52.8399952337025 | -0.00999523370254707 |
43 | 52.83 | 52.8300004330864 | -4.33086420059681e-07 |
44 | 52.84 | 52.8300000000188 | 0.00999999998123968 |
45 | 52.82 | 52.8399995667071 | -0.0199995667070638 |
46 | 53.09 | 52.8200008665671 | 0.269999133432897 |
47 | 53.4 | 53.0899883011281 | 0.310011698871875 |
48 | 53.43 | 53.3999865674119 | 0.030013432588099 |
49 | 53.43 | 53.4299986995391 | 1.30046085189406e-06 |
50 | 53.42 | 53.4299999999437 | -0.00999999994365197 |
51 | 53.6 | 53.4200004332929 | 0.17999956670706 |
52 | 53.69 | 53.5999922007458 | 0.0900077992541739 |
53 | 54.05 | 53.6899961000256 | 0.360003899974409 |
54 | 54.04 | 54.0499844012851 | -0.00998440128510936 |
55 | 54.04 | 54.0400004326171 | -4.32617063950147e-07 |
56 | 54.08 | 54.0400000000187 | 0.039999999981255 |
57 | 54.05 | 54.0799982668282 | -0.0299982668282368 |
58 | 54.39 | 54.0500012998037 | 0.339998700196276 |
59 | 54.38 | 54.3899852680963 | -0.00998526809629396 |
60 | 54.46 | 54.3800004326546 | 0.0799995673453822 |
61 | 54.46 | 54.4599965336752 | 3.46632478454012e-06 |
62 | 54.69 | 54.4599999998498 | 0.230000000150191 |
63 | 54.91 | 54.6899900342623 | 0.220009965737667 |
64 | 55.52 | 54.9099904671235 | 0.610009532876532 |
65 | 56.01 | 55.5199735687175 | 0.490026431282494 |
66 | 56.07 | 56.0099787675006 | 0.0600212324994018 |
67 | 56.07 | 56.0699973993224 | 2.60067763946381e-06 |
68 | 56.09 | 56.0699999998873 | 0.0200000001126881 |
69 | 56.29 | 56.0899991334141 | 0.200000866585881 |
70 | 56.45 | 56.2899913341036 | 0.160008665896385 |
71 | 56.87 | 56.4499930669374 | 0.420006933062552 |
72 | 56.87 | 56.869981801396 | 1.81986039606841e-05 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.5851348767939 | 57.154865121629 |
74 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.4671486073693 | 57.2728513910537 |
75 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.3766133862512 | 57.3633866121718 |
76 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.3002882687831 | 57.4397117296398 |
77 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.2330443008094 | 57.5069556976135 |
78 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.1722509987349 | 57.5677489996881 |
79 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.1163457193156 | 57.6236542791073 |
80 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.0643103073669 | 57.675689691056 |
81 | 56.8699999992115 | 56.0154375465588 | 57.7245624518642 |
82 | 56.8699999992115 | 55.9692125151604 | 57.7707874832625 |
83 | 56.8699999992115 | 55.9252464877799 | 57.814753510643 |
84 | 56.8699999992115 | 55.8832374627816 | 57.8567625356413 |