Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 0 |
3 | 8.6 | 8.7 | -0.0999999999999996 |
4 | 8.5 | 8.60000661069613 | -0.100006610696134 |
5 | 8.3 | 8.50000661113315 | -0.200006611133148 |
6 | 8 | 8.30001322182931 | -0.300013221829314 |
7 | 8.2 | 8.00001983296246 | 0.199980167037539 |
8 | 8.1 | 8.19998677991883 | -0.0999867799188259 |
9 | 8.1 | 8.1000066098222 | -6.60982219535811e-06 |
10 | 8 | 8.10000000043696 | -0.100000000436955 |
11 | 7.9 | 8.00000661069616 | -0.100006610696164 |
12 | 7.9 | 7.90000661113315 | -6.61113314848194e-06 |
13 | 8 | 7.90000000043704 | 0.0999999995629581 |
14 | 8 | 7.99999338930389 | 6.61069610607967e-06 |
15 | 7.9 | 7.99999999956299 | -0.0999999995629866 |
16 | 8 | 7.90000661069611 | 0.0999933893038936 |
17 | 7.7 | 7.99999338974088 | -0.299993389740878 |
18 | 7.2 | 7.70001983165142 | -0.500019831651421 |
19 | 7.5 | 7.20003305479169 | 0.299966945208314 |
20 | 7.3 | 7.49998017009675 | -0.199980170096747 |
21 | 7 | 7.30001322008138 | -0.300013220081375 |
22 | 7 | 7.00001983296235 | -1.9832962345312e-05 |
23 | 7 | 7.0000000013111 | -1.31109700873822e-09 |
24 | 7.2 | 7.00000000000009 | 0.199999999999913 |
25 | 7.3 | 7.19998677860773 | 0.10001322139227 |
26 | 7.1 | 7.29999338842984 | -0.199993388429839 |
27 | 6.8 | 7.1000132209552 | -0.3000132209552 |
28 | 6.4 | 6.8000198329624 | -0.400019832962403 |
29 | 6.1 | 6.40002644409564 | -0.300026444095638 |
30 | 6.5 | 6.10001983383654 | 0.399980166163456 |
31 | 7.7 | 6.49997355852661 | 1.20002644147339 |
32 | 7.9 | 7.69992066989841 | 0.200079330101588 |
33 | 7.5 | 7.89998677336346 | -0.399986773363458 |
34 | 6.9 | 7.50002644191017 | -0.600026441910168 |
35 | 6.6 | 6.90003966592481 | -0.300039665924806 |
36 | 6.9 | 6.6000198347106 | 0.299980165289401 |
37 | 7.7 | 6.89998016922281 | 0.800019830777193 |
38 | 8 | 7.69994711311997 | 0.300052886880033 |
39 | 8 | 7.9999801644154 | 1.98355845961729e-05 |
40 | 7.7 | 7.99999999868873 | -0.29999999868873 |
41 | 7.3 | 7.70001983208832 | -0.400019832088319 |
42 | 7.4 | 7.30002644409558 | 0.0999735559044206 |
43 | 8.1 | 7.399993391052 | 0.700006608947995 |
44 | 8.3 | 8.09995372469016 | 0.200046275309845 |
45 | 8.1 | 8.29998677554861 | -0.199986775548611 |
46 | 7.9 | 8.10001322051804 | -0.200013220518041 |
47 | 7.9 | 7.90001322226624 | -1.32222662383441e-05 |
48 | 8.3 | 7.90000000087408 | 0.399999999125916 |
49 | 8.6 | 8.29997355721552 | 0.300026442784482 |
50 | 8.7 | 8.59998016616354 | 0.100019833836457 |
51 | 8.5 | 8.69999338799271 | -0.199993387992709 |
52 | 8.3 | 8.50001322095517 | -0.200013220955171 |
53 | 8 | 8.30001322226627 | -0.300013222266267 |
54 | 8 | 8.00001983296249 | -1.9832962490085e-05 |
55 | 8.8 | 8.0000000013111 | 0.799999998688904 |
56 | 8.7 | 8.79994711443101 | -0.0999471144310071 |
57 | 8.5 | 8.70000660720003 | -0.200006607200031 |
58 | 8.1 | 8.50001322182905 | -0.400013221829052 |
59 | 7.8 | 8.1000264436586 | -0.300026443658596 |
60 | 7.7 | 7.80001983383652 | -0.100019833836515 |
61 | 7.5 | 7.70000661200729 | -0.20000661200729 |
62 | 7.2 | 7.50001322182937 | -0.30001322182937 |
63 | 6.9 | 7.20001983296246 | -0.300019832962461 |
64 | 6.6 | 6.9000198333995 | -0.300019833399503 |
65 | 6.5 | 6.60001983339953 | -0.100019833399531 |
66 | 6.6 | 6.50000661200726 | 0.0999933879927388 |
67 | 7.7 | 6.59999338974096 | 1.10000661025904 |
68 | 8 | 7.69992728190553 | 0.300072718094471 |
69 | 7.7 | 7.99998016310442 | -0.299980163104422 |
70 | 7.2 | 7.70001983077705 | -0.500019830777049 |
71 | 7 | 7.20003305479163 | -0.200033054791628 |
72 | 7 | 7.00001322357742 | -1.32235774223943e-05 |
73 | 7.3 | 7.00000000087417 | 0.299999999125829 |
74 | 7.3 | 7.29998016791165 | 1.98320883475489e-05 |
75 | 7.1 | 7.29999999868896 | -0.199999998688961 |
76 | 6.9 | 7.10001322139218 | -0.200013221392183 |
77 | 6.7 | 6.9000132222663 | -0.200013222266296 |
78 | 6.8 | 6.70001322226635 | 0.0999867777336458 |
79 | 7.5 | 6.79999339017795 | 0.700006609822052 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
80 | 7.4999537246901 | 6.82019550794548 | 8.17971194143472 |
81 | 7.4999537246901 | 6.53866220999091 | 8.46124523938929 |
82 | 7.4999537246901 | 6.32262984434388 | 8.67727760503632 |
83 | 7.4999537246901 | 6.14050469576908 | 8.85940275361112 |
84 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.9800485285561 | 9.0198589208241 |
85 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.83498467145338 | 9.16492277792681 |
86 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.70158443802042 | 9.29832301135977 |
87 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.57741835850366 | 9.42248909087654 |
88 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.46079890534988 | 9.53910854403032 |
89 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.35049739337297 | 9.64941005600722 |
90 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.24558626057958 | 9.75432118880062 |
91 | 7.4999537246901 | 5.14534488111524 | 9.85456256826496 |