Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.415602455144669 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 2.75 | 2.75165328104311 | -0.00165328104310625 |
14 | 2.62 | 2.63502698167349 | -0.0150269816734876 |
15 | 2.41 | 2.44121110626251 | -0.0312111062625107 |
16 | 3.61 | 3.66400937849564 | -0.0540093784956399 |
17 | 2.03 | 2.03582850158271 | -0.00582850158270665 |
18 | 1.45 | 1.42529151970651 | 0.0247084802934936 |
19 | 1.4 | 1.72140993385817 | -0.321409933858171 |
20 | 1.3 | 1.29208470435897 | 0.00791529564102844 |
21 | 1.58 | 1.93470283994451 | -0.354702839944509 |
22 | 2.1 | 1.78266601236554 | 0.317333987634458 |
23 | 2.27 | 1.90139676362203 | 0.368603236377972 |
24 | 2.54 | 1.83325218903836 | 0.706747810961637 |
25 | 2.55 | 2.73052558588536 | -0.180525585885356 |
26 | 2.05 | 2.60923691243219 | -0.559236912432187 |
27 | 2.32 | 2.41017469925616 | -0.0901746992561616 |
28 | 2.6 | 3.61445457639449 | -1.01445457639449 |
29 | 2.1 | 2.01825976822409 | 0.0817402317759095 |
30 | 1.61 | 1.42486061024585 | 0.185139389754151 |
31 | 1.55 | 1.57598907065368 | -0.0259890706536832 |
32 | 1.12 | 1.28570736143349 | -0.165707361433488 |
33 | 1.39 | 1.77394122110925 | -0.383941221109254 |
34 | 2.18 | 1.9002453310508 | 0.279754668949201 |
35 | 1.94 | 2.03922778045081 | -0.0992277804508124 |
36 | 2.27 | 2.11106578044613 | 0.158934219553865 |
37 | 2.41 | 2.63561976938618 | -0.22561976938618 |
38 | 2.2 | 2.35901283298067 | -0.159012832980674 |
39 | 2.58 | 2.35491377848402 | 0.225086221515977 |
40 | 2.9 | 3.16889846123187 | -0.268898461231869 |
41 | 2.12 | 2.03682987064807 | 0.0831701293519349 |
42 | 1.34 | 1.4905273762956 | -0.150527376295602 |
43 | 1.07 | 1.55342700397326 | -0.483427003973261 |
44 | 0.86 | 1.20768982265591 | -0.347689822655905 |
45 | 1 | 1.60222856103959 | -0.602228561039589 |
46 | 1.54 | 2.00133131107922 | -0.461331311079222 |
47 | 1.29 | 1.98293773159055 | -0.692937731590554 |
48 | 1.44 | 2.1607088086553 | -0.720708808655296 |
49 | 2.6 | 2.52267993772289 | 0.0773200622771086 |
50 | 2.77 | 2.27562162606085 | 0.494378373939155 |
51 | 3.31 | 2.42996961660697 | 0.880030383393028 |
52 | 3.2 | 3.03404179196992 | 0.165958208030081 |
53 | 2.07 | 2.05573287595314 | 0.0142671240468606 |
54 | 1.42 | 1.4171635479175 | 0.00283645208249839 |
55 | 1.43 | 1.34227371829472 | 0.0877262817052766 |
56 | 1.28 | 1.05513462727583 | 0.224865372724168 |
57 | 1.59 | 1.34169246041505 | 0.248307539584952 |
58 | 1.68 | 1.79587447580932 | -0.115874475809325 |
59 | 2.01 | 1.68208622304797 | 0.327913776952033 |
60 | 2.52 | 1.8470449303641 | 0.672955069635903 |
61 | 2.74 | 2.53539843084435 | 0.204601569155652 |
62 | 3.06 | 2.46221894063615 | 0.597781059363847 |
63 | 2.69 | 2.77443878264664 | -0.0844387826466386 |
64 | 2.32 | 3.07938745045137 | -0.759387450451366 |
65 | 1.67 | 2.04595444637463 | -0.375954446374628 |
66 | 1.04 | 1.4075291158391 | -0.367529115839095 |
67 | 0.98 | 1.36821500278533 | -0.388215002785334 |
68 | 0.86 | 1.13982138390605 | -0.279821383906054 |
69 | 0.97 | 1.43385298600706 | -0.463852986007064 |
70 | 1.3 | 1.73435843336319 | -0.434358433363195 |
71 | 1.82 | 1.80446080126687 | 0.015539198733131 |
72 | 1.99 | 2.1104507627814 | -0.120450762781404 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 2.60036425424721 | 2.29708719241155 | 2.90364131608287 |
74 | 2.68988691859434 | 2.38660985675868 | 2.99316398043001 |
75 | 2.71834127842867 | 2.415064216593 | 3.02161834026433 |
76 | 2.7425786865911 | 2.43930162475544 | 3.04585574842676 |
77 | 1.8751985700058 | 1.57192150817014 | 2.17847563184147 |
78 | 1.24514330757837 | 0.941866245742705 | 1.54842036941403 |
79 | 1.19759422494226 | 0.894317163106596 | 1.50087128677792 |
80 | 1.01565365685593 | 0.712376595020263 | 1.31893071869159 |
81 | 1.23152170886706 | 0.928244647031395 | 1.53479877070272 |
82 | 1.54187007552508 | 1.23859301368942 | 1.84514713736075 |
83 | 1.79696196428899 | 1.49368490245333 | 2.10023902612465 |
84 | 2.04450124677612 | -229.992943235671 | 234.081945729223 |