Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.0933640247397515 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 1.1 | 0.971949306883722 | 0.128050693116278 |
14 | 1.09 | 1.10018059402938 | -0.0101805940293789 |
15 | 1.09 | 1.10732374385202 | -0.0173237438520151 |
16 | 1.1 | 1.12284092982282 | -0.0228409298228189 |
17 | 1.1 | 1.12628557988237 | -0.0262855798823682 |
18 | 1.17 | 1.19992382320372 | -0.0299238232037207 |
19 | 1.15 | 1.23993237798446 | -0.0899323779844634 |
20 | 1.04 | 1.10445777277797 | -0.0644577727779709 |
21 | 0.94 | 1.00085698008531 | -0.0608569800853145 |
22 | 0.88 | 0.906010069731035 | -0.0260100697310353 |
23 | 0.85 | 0.864607189567366 | -0.014607189567366 |
24 | 0.85 | 0.840707062438071 | 0.00929293756192895 |
25 | 0.85 | 0.850935043756226 | -0.000935043756226106 |
26 | 0.84 | 0.851429654885878 | -0.0114296548858778 |
27 | 0.83 | 0.85466618880266 | -0.0246661888026604 |
28 | 0.8 | 0.85640957447208 | -0.0564095744720802 |
29 | 0.78 | 0.820749655265172 | -0.0407496552651717 |
30 | 1.02 | 0.852744735571289 | 0.167255264428711 |
31 | 1.19 | 1.08184437545202 | 0.108155624547984 |
32 | 1.1 | 1.14264635838591 | -0.0426463583859114 |
33 | 0.96 | 1.05823811407972 | -0.0982381140797211 |
34 | 0.87 | 0.925159542707039 | -0.0551595427070388 |
35 | 0.83 | 0.854848476430637 | -0.0248484764306367 |
36 | 0.82 | 0.821060711798492 | -0.00106071179849232 |
37 | 0.81 | 0.821103393924576 | -0.0111033939245762 |
38 | 0.78 | 0.811629504622918 | -0.0316295046229176 |
39 | 0.79 | 0.794028375590815 | -0.00402837559081515 |
40 | 0.8 | 0.815420135187351 | -0.0154201351873511 |
41 | 0.79 | 0.820749655265172 | -0.0307496552651717 |
42 | 0.97 | 0.863594082059802 | 0.106405917940198 |
43 | 1.01 | 1.02914837460787 | -0.0191483746078676 |
44 | 0.92 | 0.97079772315018 | -0.0507977231501795 |
45 | 0.87 | 0.886094712096502 | -0.0160947120965019 |
46 | 0.84 | 0.838986914315023 | 0.00101308568497727 |
47 | 0.81 | 0.825572337020449 | -0.0155723370204489 |
48 | 0.81 | 0.801414361158914 | 0.00858563884108632 |
49 | 0.83 | 0.81115951064736 | 0.0188404893526403 |
50 | 0.83 | 0.831529579754398 | -0.00152957975439771 |
51 | 0.85 | 0.844559886600686 | 0.00544011339931383 |
52 | 0.88 | 0.876904294114445 | 0.0030957058855553 |
53 | 0.89 | 0.902225901829757 | -0.0122259018297575 |
54 | 1.21 | 0.972087546944937 | 0.237912453055063 |
55 | 1.32 | 1.28208917865978 | 0.0379108213402175 |
56 | 1.33 | 1.26675926161172 | 0.0632407383882818 |
57 | 1.23 | 1.27819912772494 | -0.0481991277249449 |
58 | 1.16 | 1.18367742788309 | -0.0236774278830874 |
59 | 1.12 | 1.13785115739578 | -0.017851157395784 |
60 | 1.06 | 1.10593279607238 | -0.0459327960723825 |
61 | 1.08 | 1.05975659257777 | 0.0202434074222251 |
62 | 1.09 | 1.0802805188979 | 0.00971948110210108 |
63 | 1.03 | 1.10732374385202 | -0.0773237438520151 |
64 | 1.04 | 1.06135677089573 | -0.0213567708957254 |
65 | 1.05 | 1.06517839495893 | -0.0151783949589288 |
66 | 1.19 | 1.14567709076115 | 0.0443229092388469 |
67 | 1.14 | 1.26101077832212 | -0.121010778322123 |
68 | 1.05 | 1.09491062637599 | -0.044910626375986 |
69 | 0.95 | 1.01042050241772 | -0.0604205024177158 |
70 | 0.87 | 0.915584806219037 | -0.045584806219037 |
71 | 0.86 | 0.854848476430637 | 0.00515152356936333 |
72 | 0.85 | 0.85053023775786 | -0.000530237757860319 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.850935043756226 | 0.734258568402536 | 0.967611519109916 |
74 | 0.852360026935884 | 0.687766260631714 | 1.01695379324005 |
75 | 0.867157605546519 | 0.663974097283525 | 1.07034111380951 |
76 | 0.894486309884953 | 0.655813781601243 | 1.13315883816866 |
77 | 0.916979528779726 | 0.647350678315012 | 1.18660837924444 |
78 | 1.00135857252774 | 0.686418872158796 | 1.31629827289669 |
79 | 1.06219780189573 | 0.710366707509612 | 1.41402889628185 |
80 | 1.02063172880622 | 0.665046203765448 | 1.37621725384699 |
81 | 0.982334090675141 | 0.622809944623456 | 1.34185823672683 |
82 | 0.9465438459984 | 0.583072989543637 | 1.31001470245316 |
83 | 0.929545419978673 | 0.556147448943472 | 1.30294339101388 |
84 | 0.918845923071749 | -17.3353402685131 | 19.1730321146566 |