Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999926373388671 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 133.7 | 132 | 1.69999999999999 |
3 | 127 | 133.699874834761 | -6.69987483476072 |
4 | 128.7 | 127.00049328908 | 1.69950671091958 |
5 | 127.3 | 128.69987487108 | -1.39987487107994 |
6 | 136.7 | 127.300103068043 | 9.39989693195695 |
7 | 133.8 | 136.699307917442 | -2.89930791744203 |
8 | 137.2 | 133.800213466217 | 3.39978653378282 |
9 | 147.4 | 137.199749685238 | 10.2002503147617 |
10 | 137.6 | 147.399248990135 | -9.79924899013463 |
11 | 123.6 | 137.600721485497 | -14.0007214854967 |
12 | 117.4 | 123.601030825679 | -6.20103082567913 |
13 | 113.7 | 117.400456560886 | -3.70045656088644 |
14 | 106.8 | 113.700272452077 | -6.90027245207695 |
15 | 103.3 | 106.800508043678 | -3.5005080436779 |
16 | 96.3 | 103.300257730545 | -7.00025773054519 |
17 | 96.2 | 96.3005154052551 | -0.100515405255123 |
18 | 94.7 | 96.2000074006087 | -1.50000740060868 |
19 | 94.6 | 94.7001104404619 | -0.10011044046189 |
20 | 95.7 | 94.6000073707925 | 1.09999262920752 |
21 | 106.7 | 95.6999190112702 | 11.0000809887298 |
22 | 100.2 | 106.699190101312 | -6.49919010131245 |
23 | 94.2 | 100.200478513344 | -6.00047851334354 |
24 | 97.6 | 94.2004417948993 | 3.3995582051007 |
25 | 94.3 | 97.5997497020493 | -3.29974970204934 |
26 | 98 | 94.3002429493888 | 3.69975705061121 |
27 | 93.6 | 97.9997275994256 | -4.39972759942563 |
28 | 86.3 | 93.6003239370339 | -7.30032393703391 |
29 | 90.7 | 86.3005374981131 | 4.39946250188692 |
30 | 81.8 | 90.6996760824843 | -8.89967608248432 |
31 | 87.6 | 81.8006552529919 | 5.79934474700812 |
32 | 73.8 | 87.5995730138984 | -13.7995730138984 |
33 | 63.3 | 73.8010160157988 | -10.5010160157988 |
34 | 59.1 | 63.3007731542247 | -4.20077315422475 |
35 | 52.9 | 59.1003092886923 | -6.20030928869231 |
36 | 54.6 | 52.9004565077621 | 1.69954349223789 |
37 | 52.4 | 54.5998748683719 | -2.19987486837186 |
38 | 67.5 | 52.4001619693319 | 15.0998380306681 |
39 | 90.4 | 67.4988882500942 | 22.9011117499058 |
40 | 126 | 90.3983138687462 | 35.6016861312538 |
41 | 144.3 | 125.997378768493 | 18.3026212315074 |
42 | 167.8 | 144.29865244002 | 23.5013475599797 |
43 | 166.2 | 167.798269675418 | -1.59826967541753 |
44 | 156 | 166.20011767518 | -10.2001176751802 |
45 | 137 | 156.0007510001 | -19.0007510000996 |
46 | 129.3 | 137.001398960909 | -7.70139896090882 |
47 | 118 | 129.300567027908 | -11.300567027908 |
48 | 114.7 | 118.000832022456 | -3.30083202245636 |
49 | 112.8 | 114.700243029076 | -1.90024302907638 |
50 | 115.7 | 112.800139908455 | 2.89986009154508 |
51 | 103.9 | 115.699786493128 | -11.7997864931281 |
52 | 96.9 | 103.900868778294 | -7.00086877829389 |
53 | 88.8 | 96.9005154502445 | -8.10051545024452 |
54 | 93 | 88.8005964135026 | 4.19940358649738 |
55 | 86.3 | 92.9996908121443 | -6.69969081214433 |
56 | 82.3 | 86.3004932755315 | -4.00049327553145 |
57 | 82.4 | 82.3002945427635 | 0.0997054572364817 |
58 | 76.6 | 82.3999926590251 | -5.79999265902507 |
59 | 72.7 | 76.6004270338052 | -3.9004270338052 |
60 | 67.5 | 72.7002871752252 | -5.20028717522524 |
61 | 77.3 | 67.5003828795226 | 9.79961712047735 |
62 | 73.7 | 77.2992784873991 | -3.59927848739909 |
63 | 73 | 73.7002650026783 | -0.700265002678265 |
64 | 78.2 | 73.0000515581392 | 5.19994844186083 |
65 | 90.7 | 78.1996171454172 | 12.5003828545829 |
66 | 91.5 | 90.6990796391701 | 0.800920360829892 |
67 | 86.3 | 91.4999410309479 | -5.1999410309479 |
68 | 86.8 | 86.3003828540372 | 0.499617145962787 |
69 | 86.1 | 86.7999632148826 | -0.699963214882587 |
70 | 77.1 | 86.1000515359196 | -9.00005153591957 |
71 | 75.7 | 77.1006626432964 | -1.40066264329637 |
72 | 78.7 | 75.700103126044 | 2.99989687395596 |
73 | 71.5 | 78.6997791277588 | -7.19977912775883 |
74 | 69.6 | 71.5005300953395 | -1.90053009533951 |
75 | 73.6 | 69.6001399295906 | 3.99986007040935 |
76 | 78.1 | 73.5997055038572 | 4.50029449614277 |
77 | 78.3 | 78.0996686585663 | 0.200331341433738 |
78 | 71.5 | 78.2999852502822 | -6.79998525028219 |
79 | 68.7 | 71.5005006598711 | -2.80050065987106 |
80 | 61.2 | 68.7002061913736 | -7.50020619137361 |
81 | 64.7 | 61.2005522147661 | 3.49944778523386 |
82 | 64.6 | 64.6997423475181 | -0.0997423475180597 |
83 | 56.3 | 64.600007343691 | -8.30000734369105 |
84 | 54.5 | 56.3006111014147 | -1.80061110141472 |
85 | 49.5 | 54.5001325728937 | -5.00013257289372 |
86 | 54 | 49.5003681428175 | 4.49963185718246 |
87 | 59.2 | 53.9996687073541 | 5.20033129264588 |
88 | 52.4 | 59.1996171172291 | -6.79961711722914 |
89 | 52.8 | 52.4005006327667 | 0.399499367233325 |
90 | 47.8 | 52.7999705862154 | -4.99997058621536 |
91 | 45.2 | 47.800368130891 | -2.600368130891 |
92 | 47.1 | 45.2001914562937 | 1.89980854370631 |
93 | 42.6 | 47.0998601235348 | -4.49986012353475 |
94 | 42.1 | 42.6003313094524 | -0.500331309452349 |
95 | 39.4 | 42.1000368376989 | -2.70003683769886 |
96 | 39.6 | 39.4001987945628 | 0.199801205437183 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 39.5999852893143 | 23.5404372827884 | 55.6595332958402 |
98 | 39.5999852893143 | 16.8891907677127 | 62.3107798109159 |
99 | 39.5999852893143 | 11.7853975082432 | 67.4145730703854 |
100 | 39.5999852893143 | 7.48266287508725 | 71.7173077035414 |
101 | 39.5999852893143 | 3.69185940271432 | 75.5081111759143 |
102 | 39.5999852893143 | 0.264700743293631 | 78.935269835335 |
103 | 39.5999852893143 | -2.88690346409894 | 82.0868740427275 |
104 | 39.5999852893143 | -5.82034960127643 | 85.020320179905 |
105 | 39.5999852893143 | -8.57550564956367 | 87.7754762281923 |
106 | 39.5999852893143 | -11.1813994183757 | 90.3813699970043 |
107 | 39.5999852893143 | -13.6599446623756 | 92.8599152410042 |
108 | 39.5999852893143 | -16.0281662536537 | 95.2281368322823 |