Classical Decomposition by Moving Averages | |||||
t | Observations | Fit | Trend | Seasonal | Random |
1 | 132 | NA | NA | 0.90668716894865 | NA |
2 | 133.7 | NA | NA | 0.946402657034924 | NA |
3 | 127 | NA | NA | 0.98834006854887 | NA |
4 | 128.7 | NA | NA | 1.02082399879725 | NA |
5 | 127.3 | NA | NA | 1.07766747911708 | NA |
6 | 136.7 | NA | NA | 1.08111055406164 | NA |
7 | 133.8 | 141.430565923215 | 131.104166666667 | 1.07876484416245 | 0.946047264441001 |
8 | 137.2 | 134.005082613234 | 129.220833333333 | 1.03702382314437 | 1.02384176274856 |
9 | 147.4 | 132.331760643749 | 127.1125 | 1.04106016830563 | 1.11386714181803 |
10 | 137.6 | 123.152325003863 | 124.775 | 0.986995191375383 | 1.11731548710658 |
11 | 123.6 | 112.106823320469 | 122.129166666667 | 0.917936528842845 | 1.10251986756128 |
12 | 117.4 | 109.221746894788 | 119.083333333333 | 0.917187517660922 | 1.07487751604165 |
13 | 113.7 | 104.903705447359 | 115.7 | 0.90668716894865 | 1.08385113295216 |
14 | 106.8 | 106.316508484661 | 112.3375 | 0.946402657034924 | 1.00454766171529 |
15 | 103.3 | 107.642587715829 | 108.9125 | 0.98834006854887 | 0.959657345591755 |
16 | 96.3 | 107.858562339586 | 105.658333333333 | 1.02082399879725 | 0.89283593171588 |
17 | 96.2 | 110.865041914169 | 102.875 | 1.07766747911708 | 0.86772167618425 |
18 | 94.7 | 109.002971613264 | 100.825 | 1.08111055406164 | 0.868783654229076 |
19 | 94.6 | 107.004482833881 | 99.1916666666667 | 1.07876484416245 | 0.884075110636833 |
20 | 95.7 | 101.645618398534 | 98.0166666666667 | 1.03702382314437 | 0.941506397499379 |
21 | 106.7 | 101.238763617021 | 97.2458333333333 | 1.04106016830563 | 1.05394412365246 |
22 | 100.2 | 95.1710113283713 | 96.425 | 0.986995191375383 | 1.05284160167508 |
23 | 94.2 | 87.9191957854603 | 95.7791666666667 | 0.917936528842845 | 1.07143837200088 |
24 | 97.6 | 87.1442790217583 | 95.0125 | 0.917187517660922 | 1.11998172565787 |
25 | 94.3 | 85.394819862147 | 94.1833333333333 | 0.90668716894865 | 1.10428243952301 |
26 | 98 | 87.9957303822264 | 92.9791666666666 | 0.946402657034924 | 1.11369039809452 |
27 | 93.6 | 89.2059273537734 | 90.2583333333333 | 0.98834006854887 | 1.0492576309285 |
28 | 86.3 | 88.5437215956767 | 86.7375 | 1.02082399879725 | 0.974659732443568 |
29 | 90.7 | 89.7741912916153 | 83.3041666666666 | 1.07766747911708 | 1.01031263768645 |
30 | 81.8 | 86.2636129595013 | 79.7916666666667 | 1.08111055406164 | 0.948256132494742 |
31 | 87.6 | 82.2603142209043 | 76.2541666666666 | 1.07876484416245 | 1.06491205181585 |
32 | 73.8 | 75.9490322475355 | 73.2375 | 1.03702382314437 | 0.971704283992305 |
33 | 63.3 | 74.7828220899541 | 71.8333333333333 | 1.04106016830563 | 0.84645107299987 |
34 | 59.1 | 72.4002097673484 | 73.3541666666667 | 0.986995191375383 | 0.816295977455211 |
35 | 52.9 | 70.9029473820361 | 77.2416666666667 | 0.917936528842845 | 0.746090281902762 |
36 | 54.6 | 76.1800665710534 | 83.0583333333333 | 0.917187517660922 | 0.716722923168811 |
37 | 52.4 | 81.5262879412995 | 89.9166666666667 | 0.90668716894865 | 0.642737469388144 |
38 | 67.5 | 91.4382700471909 | 96.6166666666667 | 0.946402657034924 | 0.738202942434973 |
39 | 90.4 | 101.910215318245 | 103.1125 | 0.98834006854887 | 0.887055333144953 |
40 | 126 | 111.380405135437 | 109.108333333333 | 1.02082399879725 | 1.13125823026758 |
41 | 144.3 | 123.657852947521 | 114.745833333333 | 1.07766747911708 | 1.16692952821394 |
42 | 167.8 | 129.692724841619 | 119.9625 | 1.08111055406164 | 1.29382739243792 |
43 | 166.2 | 134.827626106237 | 124.983333333333 | 1.07876484416245 | 1.23268505720811 |
44 | 156 | 134.303226962388 | 129.508333333333 | 1.03702382314437 | 1.16155064571671 |
45 | 137 | 137.502359479667 | 132.079166666667 | 1.04106016830563 | 0.996346539204362 |
46 | 129.3 | 129.719955506474 | 131.429166666667 | 0.986995191375383 | 0.996762599055526 |
47 | 118 | 117.407906774537 | 127.904166666667 | 0.917936528842845 | 1.00504304387779 |
48 | 114.7 | 112.332541225521 | 122.475 | 0.917187517660922 | 1.02107544927454 |
49 | 112.8 | 105.202156640471 | 116.029166666667 | 0.90668716894865 | 1.07222136505713 |
50 | 115.7 | 103.753334621858 | 109.629166666667 | 0.946402657034924 | 1.11514488109402 |
51 | 103.9 | 103.067396815171 | 104.283333333333 | 0.98834006854887 | 1.00807824016669 |
52 | 96.9 | 101.890995379951 | 99.8125 | 1.02082399879725 | 0.951016325227373 |
53 | 88.8 | 103.164209719645 | 95.7291666666667 | 1.07766747911708 | 0.860763633447291 |
54 | 93 | 99.3270321544127 | 91.875 | 1.08111055406164 | 0.936301004699538 |
55 | 86.3 | 95.3942761985821 | 88.4291666666667 | 1.07876484416245 | 0.904666437432256 |
56 | 82.3 | 88.3544297319 | 85.2 | 1.03702382314437 | 0.931475651529059 |
57 | 82.4 | 85.5361060784109 | 82.1625 | 1.04106016830563 | 0.963335879756602 |
58 | 76.6 | 79.0542023492041 | 80.0958333333333 | 0.986995191375383 | 0.968955447322544 |
59 | 72.7 | 72.880335654585 | 79.3958333333333 | 0.917936528842845 | 0.997525592425374 |
60 | 67.5 | 72.8361537462479 | 79.4125 | 0.917187517660922 | 0.926737568202209 |
61 | 77.3 | 71.9456268560754 | 79.35 | 0.90668716894865 | 1.07442249623644 |
62 | 73.7 | 75.2745013339153 | 79.5375 | 0.946402657034924 | 0.979083204723857 |
63 | 73 | 78.94778105896 | 79.8791666666667 | 0.98834006854887 | 0.924661833693362 |
64 | 78.2 | 81.7212145370484 | 80.0541666666667 | 1.02082399879725 | 0.956911867291791 |
65 | 90.7 | 86.4289318251894 | 80.2 | 1.07766747911708 | 1.04941711166174 |
66 | 91.5 | 87.3447235135629 | 80.7916666666667 | 1.08111055406164 | 1.04757329715277 |
67 | 86.3 | 87.3979317912279 | 81.0166666666667 | 1.07876484416245 | 0.987437554084796 |
68 | 86.8 | 83.5884410780323 | 80.6041666666667 | 1.03702382314437 | 1.03842108885569 |
69 | 86.1 | 83.7619660415901 | 80.4583333333333 | 1.04106016830563 | 1.02791283525089 |
70 | 77.1 | 79.432550505898 | 80.4791666666667 | 0.986995191375383 | 0.970634828026518 |
71 | 75.7 | 73.3966749520591 | 79.9583333333333 | 0.917936528842845 | 1.03138187185517 |
72 | 78.7 | 72.0985821174623 | 78.6083333333333 | 0.917187517660922 | 1.09156099452528 |
73 | 71.5 | 69.8526906410856 | 77.0416666666667 | 0.90668716894865 | 1.02358261856195 |
74 | 69.6 | 71.2089132530694 | 75.2416666666666 | 0.946402657034924 | 0.977405732238161 |
75 | 73.6 | 72.4288546901564 | 73.2833333333333 | 0.98834006854887 | 1.01616959587244 |
76 | 78.1 | 73.3674714802242 | 71.8708333333333 | 1.02082399879725 | 1.06450445169085 |
77 | 78.3 | 76.0204600893837 | 70.5416666666667 | 1.07766747911708 | 1.02998587364423 |
78 | 71.5 | 74.2993228278859 | 68.725 | 1.08111055406164 | 0.962323710077809 |
79 | 68.7 | 72.0614915900518 | 66.8 | 1.07876484416245 | 0.953352456133231 |
80 | 61.2 | 67.6485207297841 | 65.2333333333333 | 1.03702382314437 | 0.904676101410374 |
81 | 64.7 | 66.6104997687549 | 63.9833333333333 | 1.04106016830563 | 0.971318339069855 |
82 | 64.6 | 61.5021378625786 | 62.3125 | 0.986995191375383 | 1.05036999111061 |
83 | 56.3 | 55.240655358655 | 60.1791666666667 | 0.917936528842845 | 1.01917690212882 |
84 | 54.5 | 53.315346078698 | 58.1291666666667 | 0.917187517660922 | 1.02221975488171 |
85 | 49.5 | 50.9218181260786 | 56.1625 | 0.90668716894865 | 0.972078410033235 |
86 | 54 | 51.6696417297026 | 54.5958333333333 | 0.946402657034924 | 1.04510111145125 |
87 | 59.2 | 52.4685033890881 | 53.0875 | 0.98834006854887 | 1.12829595235438 |
88 | 52.4 | 52.2959627717176 | 51.2291666666667 | 1.02082399879725 | 1.00198939311504 |
89 | 52.8 | 53.438836120718 | 49.5875 | 1.07766747911708 | 0.988045470914171 |
90 | 47.8 | 52.1770981153997 | 48.2625 | 1.08111055406164 | 0.916110740660225 |
91 | 45.2 | NA | NA | 1.07876484416245 | NA |
92 | 47.1 | NA | NA | 1.03702382314437 | NA |
93 | 42.6 | NA | NA | 1.04106016830563 | NA |
94 | 42.1 | NA | NA | 0.986995191375383 | NA |
95 | 39.4 | NA | NA | 0.917936528842845 | NA |
96 | 39.6 | NA | NA | 0.917187517660922 | NA |