Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.787756634642108 |
beta | 0.170864350599678 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.01 |
4 | 0.67 | 0.649223561604508 | 0.0207764383954918 |
5 | 0.67 | 0.659732832808904 | 0.0102671671910959 |
6 | 0.67 | 0.663345311732104 | 0.00665468826789584 |
7 | 0.67 | 0.665007754301312 | 0.00499224569868784 |
8 | 0.68 | 0.666032550610679 | 0.0139674493893209 |
9 | 0.68 | 0.676007635239166 | 0.00399236476083364 |
10 | 0.67 | 0.67866215117411 | -0.00866215117410984 |
11 | 0.67 | 0.670182066782599 | -0.000182066782598689 |
12 | 0.67 | 0.668357719030222 | 0.00164228096977781 |
13 | 0.67 | 0.668191563563452 | 0.00180843643654849 |
14 | 0.67 | 0.668399712854826 | 0.00160028714517402 |
15 | 0.69 | 0.668659289051822 | 0.0213407109481775 |
16 | 0.69 | 0.687341964644327 | 0.00265803535567255 |
17 | 0.69 | 0.691665008884427 | -0.00166500888442678 |
18 | 0.69 | 0.692358436936225 | -0.00235843693622539 |
19 | 0.69 | 0.692188167946307 | -0.00218816794630694 |
20 | 0.69 | 0.691857503114908 | -0.00185750311490784 |
21 | 0.7 | 0.691537302659831 | 0.00846269734016858 |
22 | 0.69 | 0.700485983633127 | -0.0104859836331272 |
23 | 0.68 | 0.693096307027336 | -0.0130963070273357 |
24 | 0.7 | 0.68188757413347 | 0.0181124258665296 |
25 | 0.7 | 0.697701651568401 | 0.00229834843159882 |
26 | 0.71 | 0.701367441192258 | 0.00863255880774239 |
27 | 0.69 | 0.711184985387178 | -0.0211849853871779 |
28 | 0.7 | 0.694662072326437 | 0.00533792767356311 |
29 | 0.7 | 0.699751242532993 | 0.00024875746700681 |
30 | 0.71 | 0.700864867781612 | 0.00913513221838769 |
31 | 0.71 | 0.710208378163343 | -0.000208378163342737 |
32 | 0.71 | 0.712163428649043 | -0.00216342864904273 |
33 | 0.71 | 0.71228717867329 | -0.00228717867329009 |
34 | 0.7 | 0.712005590630035 | -0.0120055906300349 |
35 | 0.7 | 0.702452312283813 | -0.0024523122838126 |
36 | 0.71 | 0.700094612266874 | 0.00990538773312633 |
37 | 0.71 | 0.708805032919025 | 0.00119496708097455 |
38 | 0.71 | 0.710814603914377 | -0.000814603914377265 |
39 | 0.71 | 0.711131476724759 | -0.00113147672475922 |
40 | 0.7 | 0.711046434645809 | -0.0110464346458089 |
41 | 0.69 | 0.701663973817152 | -0.0116639738171516 |
42 | 0.7 | 0.690225077064284 | 0.00977492293571625 |
43 | 0.7 | 0.696990513459859 | 0.0030094865401411 |
44 | 0.7 | 0.698831507909801 | 0.00116849209019876 |
45 | 0.71 | 0.699379525248714 | 0.0106204747512858 |
46 | 0.7 | 0.708802915504807 | -0.00880291550480705 |
47 | 0.7 | 0.701740532966739 | -0.00174053296673882 |
48 | 0.69 | 0.700007314217437 | -0.0100073142174368 |
49 | 0.7 | 0.690414903942477 | 0.00958509605752322 |
50 | 0.71 | 0.69754669423442 | 0.0124533057655797 |
51 | 0.71 | 0.708614144804228 | 0.00138585519577195 |
52 | 0.71 | 0.711149673211287 | -0.00114967321128656 |
53 | 0.71 | 0.711533076824287 | -0.00153307682428716 |
54 | 0.71 | 0.711408100283823 | -0.00140810028382332 |
55 | 0.71 | 0.711192045211791 | -0.00119204521179084 |
56 | 0.71 | 0.71098574023595 | -0.000985740235950328 |
57 | 0.71 | 0.710809273205258 | -0.000809273205258476 |
58 | 0.69 | 0.710662891459112 | -0.0206628914591123 |
59 | 0.7 | 0.692095474819608 | 0.00790452518039231 |
60 | 0.7 | 0.697096175513482 | 0.00290382448651805 |
61 | 0.7 | 0.698548394456814 | 0.00145160554318546 |
62 | 0.72 | 0.699052003710358 | 0.0209479962896422 |
63 | 0.7 | 0.717733614493226 | -0.017733614493226 |
64 | 0.69 | 0.703556593641583 | -0.0135565936415833 |
65 | 0.7 | 0.690845337603122 | 0.00915466239687801 |
66 | 0.71 | 0.697257237407573 | 0.0127427625924271 |
67 | 0.72 | 0.708210856749262 | 0.0117891432507381 |
68 | 0.72 | 0.720000069218853 | -6.92188526496551e-08 |
69 | 0.73 | 0.722502242031493 | 0.00749775796850694 |
70 | 0.72 | 0.731920072623566 | -0.0119200726235655 |
71 | 0.74 | 0.724436942213639 | 0.0155630577863609 |
72 | 0.75 | 0.740698610323044 | 0.00930138967695582 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.753279570475219 | 0.734784501790855 | 0.771774639159583 |
74 | 0.75853329919798 | 0.733372249344088 | 0.783694349051872 |
75 | 0.763787027920741 | 0.731924494571482 | 0.79564956127 |
76 | 0.769040756643502 | 0.730299436725476 | 0.807782076561529 |
77 | 0.774294485366263 | 0.728441683481008 | 0.820147287251519 |
78 | 0.779548214089025 | 0.7263280652265 | 0.832768362951549 |
79 | 0.784801942811786 | 0.723949672681931 | 0.845654212941641 |
80 | 0.790055671534547 | 0.721304543950667 | 0.858806799118427 |
81 | 0.795309400257308 | 0.71839428447668 | 0.872224516037936 |
82 | 0.800563128980069 | 0.715222366429352 | 0.885903891530786 |
83 | 0.80581685770283 | 0.711793221345103 | 0.899840494060557 |
84 | 0.811070586425591 | 0.708111736114276 | 0.914029436736906 |