Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 0.01 |
3 | 1.45 | 1.44999933893039 | 6.61069613494547e-07 |
4 | 1.47 | 1.4499999999563 | 0.0200000000437013 |
5 | 1.49 | 1.46999867786077 | 0.0200013221392299 |
6 | 1.5 | 1.48999867777337 | 0.0100013222266297 |
7 | 1.5 | 1.49999933884298 | 6.61157021797365e-07 |
8 | 1.5 | 1.49999999995629 | 4.37070379888382e-11 |
9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.88657986402541e-15 |
10 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
11 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
12 | 1.51 | 1.5 | 0.01 |
13 | 1.52 | 1.50999933893039 | 0.0100006610696135 |
14 | 1.51 | 1.51999933888669 | -0.00999933888668525 |
15 | 1.51 | 1.51000066102591 | -6.61025909343138e-07 |
16 | 1.51 | 1.5100000000437 | -4.36983782492462e-11 |
17 | 1.52 | 1.51 | 0.00999999999999712 |
18 | 1.52 | 1.51999933893039 | 6.61069613494547e-07 |
19 | 1.52 | 1.5199999999563 | 4.37012648291102e-11 |
20 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 2.88657986402541e-15 |
21 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 0 |
22 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 0.01 |
23 | 1.53 | 1.52999933893039 | 6.61069613494547e-07 |
24 | 1.53 | 1.5299999999563 | 4.37012648291102e-11 |
25 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 2.88657986402541e-15 |
26 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 0.01 |
27 | 1.54 | 1.53999933893039 | 6.61069613494547e-07 |
28 | 1.55 | 1.5399999999563 | 0.0100000000437013 |
29 | 1.56 | 1.54999933893038 | 0.0100006610696164 |
30 | 1.55 | 1.55999933888669 | -0.00999933888668525 |
31 | 1.56 | 1.55000066102591 | 0.00999933897409067 |
32 | 1.56 | 1.55999933897408 | 6.61025915116298e-07 |
33 | 1.56 | 1.5599999999563 | 4.36983782492462e-11 |
34 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 2.88657986402541e-15 |
35 | 1.57 | 1.56 | 0.01 |
36 | 1.56 | 1.56999933893039 | -0.00999933893038651 |
37 | 1.57 | 1.56000066102591 | 0.00999933897408778 |
38 | 1.58 | 1.56999933897408 | 0.0100006610259151 |
39 | 1.58 | 1.57999933888669 | 6.61113311872796e-07 |
40 | 1.58 | 1.5799999999563 | 4.37041514089742e-11 |
41 | 1.6 | 1.58 | 0.0200000000000029 |
42 | 1.61 | 1.59999867786077 | 0.010001322139227 |
43 | 1.61 | 1.60999933884298 | 6.61157016024205e-07 |
44 | 1.61 | 1.60999999995629 | 4.37070379888382e-11 |
45 | 1.6 | 1.61 | -0.00999999999999712 |
46 | 1.59 | 1.60000066106961 | -0.0100006610696135 |
47 | 1.56 | 1.59000066111331 | -0.0300006611133148 |
48 | 1.57 | 1.56000198325254 | 0.00999801674745515 |
49 | 1.55 | 1.56999933906149 | -0.0199993390614932 |
50 | 1.59 | 1.55000132209553 | 0.0399986779044657 |
51 | 1.62 | 1.58999735580895 | 0.0300026441910544 |
52 | 1.63 | 1.61999801661636 | 0.0100019833836398 |
53 | 1.62 | 1.62999933879927 | -0.00999933879927073 |
54 | 1.56 | 1.6200006610259 | -0.0600006610259036 |
55 | 1.56 | 1.56000396646138 | -3.96646137956758e-06 |
56 | 1.54 | 1.56000000026221 | -0.0200000002622107 |
57 | 1.54 | 1.54000132213924 | -1.32213924430857e-06 |
58 | 1.52 | 1.5400000000874 | -0.0200000000874025 |
59 | 1.56 | 1.52000132213923 | 0.0399986778607673 |
60 | 1.59 | 1.55999735580895 | 0.0300026441910515 |
61 | 1.61 | 1.58999801661636 | 0.02000198338364 |
62 | 1.56 | 1.60999867772966 | -0.0499986777296575 |
63 | 1.51 | 1.56000330526066 | -0.0500033052606563 |
64 | 1.48 | 1.51000330556657 | -0.0300033055665683 |
65 | 1.49 | 1.48000198342736 | 0.00999801657263855 |
66 | 1.48 | 1.4899993390615 | -0.00999933906150474 |
67 | 1.47 | 1.48000066102592 | -0.0100006610259209 |
68 | 1.47 | 1.47000066111331 | -6.61113311872796e-07 |
69 | 1.46 | 1.4700000000437 | -0.0100000000437042 |
70 | 1.45 | 1.46000066106962 | -0.0100006610696164 |
71 | 1.45 | 1.45000066111331 | -6.61113314759376e-07 |
72 | 1.45 | 1.4500000000437 | -4.37041514089742e-11 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.45 | 1.41613390402981 | 1.4838660959702 |
74 | 1.45 | 1.402107690808 | 1.497892309192 |
75 | 1.45 | 1.39134478622303 | 1.50865521377697 |
76 | 1.45 | 1.38227116620891 | 1.5177288337911 |
77 | 1.45 | 1.37427711211146 | 1.52572288788855 |
78 | 1.45 | 1.36704991516785 | 1.53295008483215 |
79 | 1.45 | 1.36040380924872 | 1.53959619075129 |
80 | 1.45 | 1.3542177562352 | 1.54578224376481 |
81 | 1.45 | 1.34840768216002 | 1.55159231783999 |
82 | 1.45 | 1.34291237294823 | 1.55708762705178 |
83 | 1.45 | 1.33768561672226 | 1.56231438327775 |
84 | 1.45 | 1.33269151132787 | 1.56730848867213 |