| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.873774375374483 |
| beta | 0.0138532313679703 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1.1 | 2.16132478632479 | -1.06132478632479 |
| 14 | 1.5 | 1.74847961343726 | -0.248479613437262 |
| 15 | 1.7 | 1.79286997778837 | -0.0928699777883681 |
| 16 | 1.2 | 1.1679372338624 | 0.032062766137599 |
| 17 | 0.4 | 0.273388960471135 | 0.126611039528865 |
| 18 | -0.7 | -0.849512878584956 | 0.149512878584957 |
| 19 | -1.4 | 0.370239449187077 | -1.77023944918708 |
| 20 | -1.6 | -1.47136665204617 | -0.128633347953826 |
| 21 | -1.2 | -2.66346979593842 | 1.46346979593842 |
| 22 | -0.4 | -1.89255262865601 | 1.49255262865601 |
| 23 | -0.2 | -1.12399021027744 | 0.92399021027744 |
| 24 | -0.3 | 0.0339614667132991 | -0.333961466713299 |
| 25 | -0.5 | -0.0744283173584626 | -0.425571682641537 |
| 26 | 0 | 0.185218805404061 | -0.185218805404061 |
| 27 | -0.5 | 0.319678147840291 | -0.819678147840291 |
| 28 | 0.2 | -0.918197576796048 | 1.11819757679605 |
| 29 | 0.7 | -0.832273783217365 | 1.53227378321736 |
| 30 | 1.6 | -0.687536867872728 | 2.28753686787273 |
| 31 | 2.6 | 2.2204398907392 | 0.379560109260802 |
| 32 | 3.3 | 2.55290456384416 | 0.747095436155841 |
| 33 | 3.3 | 2.42597360295008 | 0.874026397049923 |
| 34 | 3.2 | 2.77740485340257 | 0.42259514659743 |
| 35 | 3.5 | 2.61823091112272 | 0.881769088877277 |
| 36 | 3.9 | 3.65892626453418 | 0.241073735465823 |
| 37 | 4.5 | 4.12680566520871 | 0.373194334791288 |
| 38 | 4.6 | 5.20978321686006 | -0.60978321686006 |
| 39 | 6.6 | 4.98309530617348 | 1.61690469382652 |
| 40 | 7.1 | 6.2382579401721 | 0.861742059827896 |
| 41 | 8.9 | 6.26866534563128 | 2.63133465436872 |
| 42 | 8.8 | 7.59867157568081 | 1.20132842431919 |
| 43 | 8.5 | 9.433168088583 | -0.933168088583002 |
| 44 | 7.6 | 8.76556324561258 | -1.16556324561258 |
| 45 | 7.5 | 7.06083648282386 | 0.439163517176143 |
| 46 | 7.5 | 7.04746406312562 | 0.452535936874376 |
| 47 | 6.1 | 7.04492411774028 | -0.944924117740281 |
| 48 | 6.3 | 6.45903118025075 | -0.159031180250747 |
| 49 | 8.4 | 6.63954464978082 | 1.76045535021918 |
| 50 | 7.1 | 8.8729490974383 | -1.7729490974383 |
| 51 | 5.6 | 7.95925278651166 | -2.35925278651166 |
| 52 | 4.2 | 5.64497130450139 | -1.44497130450139 |
| 53 | 2.1 | 3.85541905006195 | -1.75541905006195 |
| 54 | 1.2 | 1.09100841841662 | 0.108991581583382 |
| 55 | 0.9 | 1.60751808017742 | -0.70751808017742 |
| 56 | 1.4 | 1.01637485819208 | 0.383625141807923 |
| 57 | 1.7 | 0.795227802201639 | 0.904772197798361 |
| 58 | 1.7 | 1.12339721804527 | 0.576602781954731 |
| 59 | 1.9 | 0.987387173232297 | 0.912612826767703 |
| 60 | 1.3 | 2.08076572395014 | -0.780765723950141 |
| 61 | -0.7 | 1.90978949796266 | -2.60978949796266 |
| 62 | 0.3 | -0.2248426291178 | 0.5248426291178 |
| 63 | 0.8 | 0.719597458853055 | 0.0804025411469449 |
| 64 | 0.9 | 0.606352504134018 | 0.293647495865982 |
| 65 | 1.1 | 0.271742094161551 | 0.828257905838449 |
| 66 | 2.5 | 0.00646069854972386 | 2.49353930145028 |
| 67 | 2.7 | 2.53856872686052 | 0.161431273139478 |
| 68 | 3.3 | 2.89004581530689 | 0.409954184693107 |
| 69 | 4.2 | 2.80362961473125 | 1.39637038526875 |
| 70 | 3.8 | 3.57181523874331 | 0.228184761256688 |
| 71 | 3.8 | 3.22145577150628 | 0.578544228493716 |
| 72 | 3.2 | 3.85281844805474 | -0.652818448054742 |
| 73 | 2.9 | 3.6079508271403 | -0.707950827140305 |
| 74 | 1.9 | 3.59896971094358 | -1.69896971094358 |
| 75 | 1.7 | 2.58548369311959 | -0.885483693119594 |
| 76 | 1.6 | 1.68478127013923 | -0.0847812701392259 |
| 77 | 1.7 | 1.11200250131129 | 0.587997498688711 |
| 78 | 1.2 | 0.869092113923196 | 0.330907886076804 |
| 79 | 0.7 | 1.21310186143154 | -0.513101861431535 |
| 80 | -0.2 | 0.994319614365202 | -1.1943196143652 |
| 81 | -1.5 | -0.401017539140786 | -1.09898246085921 |
| 82 | -1.2 | -2.02252611148099 | 0.822526111480992 |
| 83 | -1 | -1.86401059242228 | 0.864010592422281 |
| 84 | 0 | -1.18985838763577 | 1.18985838763577 |
| 85 | -0.6 | 0.139489394397724 | -0.739489394397724 |
| 86 | 0.7 | -0.05143233221233 | 0.75143233221233 |
| 87 | 1.3 | 1.17923303758394 | 0.120766962416057 |
| 88 | 0.8 | 1.27138616857728 | -0.471386168577276 |
| 89 | 1 | 0.453594521806253 | 0.546405478193747 |
| 90 | 0.5 | 0.149257996416734 | 0.350742003583266 |
| 91 | 0.3 | 0.411669914685628 | -0.111669914685628 |
| 92 | 1 | 0.470127937041767 | 0.529872062958233 |
| 93 | 1 | 0.626716386573908 | 0.373283613426092 |
| 94 | 1.1 | 0.58533809869219 | 0.51466190130781 |
| 95 | 1.5 | 0.527517886890646 | 0.972482113109354 |
| 96 | 1.5 | 1.38632479517586 | 0.113675204824139 |
| 97 | 2 | 1.56751612130097 | 0.432483878699031 |
| 98 | 1.7 | 2.63873136292786 | -0.938731362927865 |
| 99 | 0.6 | 2.3424143497889 | -1.7424143497889 |
| 100 | 1.2 | 0.738714907089899 | 0.461285092910101 |
| 101 | 1.5 | 0.882520919262102 | 0.617479080737898 |
| 102 | 2.1 | 0.634631283325982 | 1.46536871667402 |
| 103 | 3.2 | 1.84514167840216 | 1.35485832159784 |
| 104 | 3.9 | 3.31627971687046 | 0.583720283129544 |
| 105 | 4.6 | 3.55109188321913 | 1.04890811678087 |
| 106 | 4.2 | 4.17701869657056 | 0.0229813034294439 |
| 107 | 4.4 | 3.80053378353562 | 0.599466216464382 |
| 108 | 3.7 | 4.27365487745992 | -0.573654877459917 |
| 109 | 3.7 | 3.93484611568112 | -0.234846115681116 |
| 110 | 2.8 | 4.28213474764749 | -1.48213474764749 |
| 111 | 2.9 | 3.43523445430734 | -0.535234454307336 |
| 112 | 3.9 | 3.20478769732022 | 0.695212302679778 |
| 113 | 3.1 | 3.61582707767208 | -0.515827077672078 |
| 114 | 3 | 2.51410882675452 | 0.48589117324548 |
| 115 | 2.8 | 2.87237128377707 | -0.0723712837770671 |
| 116 | 2.4 | 2.99936292754749 | -0.599362927547494 |
| 117 | 2.1 | 2.2450928208159 | -0.145092820815899 |
| 118 | 3.1 | 1.6697279513008 | 1.4302720486992 |
| 119 | 3 | 2.58419348139777 | 0.415806518602226 |
| 120 | 3.1 | 2.7350650507587 | 0.364934949241295 |
| 121 | 3.3 | 3.25680518527092 | 0.043194814729083 |
| 122 | 3.3 | 3.69063145387787 | -0.390631453877872 |
| 123 | 3.8 | 3.93122644248233 | -0.131226442482334 |
| 124 | 3.1 | 4.22824039117842 | -1.12824039117842 |
| 125 | 3.9 | 2.89019211483504 | 1.00980788516496 |
| 126 | 4 | 3.26350709549048 | 0.736492904509524 |
| 127 | 4.4 | 3.78883531268489 | 0.611164687315107 |
| 128 | 3.7 | 4.47340066809534 | -0.773400668095335 |
| 129 | 3.6 | 3.64913205916812 | -0.0491320591681181 |
| 130 | 3.4 | 3.38235891326187 | 0.0176410867381334 |
| 131 | 2.8 | 2.94324508536713 | -0.143245085367128 |
| 132 | 2.8 | 2.60123622142278 | 0.19876377857722 |
| 133 | 2.6 | 2.93718278869289 | -0.337182788692885 |
| 134 | 3.3 | 2.97929493758522 | 0.320705062414783 |
| 135 | 2.4 | 3.87820162383337 | -1.47820162383337 |
| 136 | 1.6 | 2.8601303903348 | -1.2601303903348 |
| 137 | 0.7 | 1.66283593999393 | -0.962835939993929 |
| 138 | 0 | 0.240247327148995 | -0.240247327148995 |
| 139 | -1.1 | -0.153276335585294 | -0.946723664414706 |
| 140 | -1.2 | -1.07316080318054 | -0.126839196819462 |
| 141 | -1.3 | -1.30167221652161 | 0.00167221652160943 |
| 142 | -1.6 | -1.57562334843447 | -0.0243766515655313 |
| 143 | -1.3 | -2.13226570710735 | 0.832265707107351 |
| 144 | -1.6 | -1.62742633881833 | 0.0274263388183269 |
| 145 | -1.1 | -1.55961258071325 | 0.459612580713247 |
| 146 | -1 | -0.779366217117632 | -0.220633782882368 |
| 147 | 0.3 | -0.628215818261119 | 0.928215818261119 |
| 148 | 1.2 | 0.465353584562026 | 0.734646415437974 |
| 149 | 0.7 | 1.05416470319435 | -0.354164703194354 |
| 150 | 1.1 | 0.26758887389361 | 0.83241112610639 |
| 151 | 2.1 | 0.748097618981745 | 1.35190238101826 |
| 152 | 2.5 | 1.99395441786879 | 0.50604558213121 |
| 153 | 2.3 | 2.39609405693151 | -0.096094056931511 |
| 154 | 2.3 | 2.09367692093069 | 0.206323079069307 |
| 155 | 2.6 | 1.90978451480592 | 0.690215485194081 |
| 156 | 3.2 | 2.25023344897957 | 0.949766551020427 |
| 157 | 2.2 | 3.25100274804419 | -1.05100274804419 |
| 158 | 2.7 | 2.67964755183004 | 0.0203524481699642 |
| 159 | 2.2 | 3.24349677194525 | -1.04349677194525 |
| 160 | 1.4 | 2.62305099887471 | -1.22305099887471 |
| 161 | 2.4 | 1.37339345705472 | 1.02660654294528 |
| 162 | 2 | 1.96934315623615 | 0.0306568437638501 |
| 163 | 1.3 | 1.83143446858586 | -0.531434468585865 |
| 164 | 1.1 | 1.3186757551219 | -0.218675755121897 |
| 165 | 1.4 | 0.996559317294309 | 0.403440682705691 |
| 166 | 1.8 | 1.15983460473087 | 0.640165395269131 |
| 167 | 1.9 | 1.41239258220011 | 0.48760741779989 |
| 168 | 1.6 | 1.60240774845159 | -0.00240774845159075 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 169 | 1.50095547576778 | -0.272507473327576 | 3.27441842486313 |
| 170 | 1.97820628098438 | -0.391064259219288 | 4.34747682118805 |
| 171 | 2.38477491578446 | -0.469980492088635 | 5.23953032365756 |
| 172 | 2.6608645426153 | -0.618563629979206 | 5.94029271520981 |
| 173 | 2.78606559742683 | -0.878552617754137 | 6.45068381260779 |
| 174 | 2.36907531843744 | -1.65272560644073 | 6.3908762433156 |
| 175 | 2.14285493601219 | -2.21511923293745 | 6.50082910496182 |
| 176 | 2.14978680500374 | -2.52798155883834 | 6.82755516884582 |
| 177 | 2.11577625435842 | -2.86865333928829 | 7.10020584800513 |
| 178 | 1.97003822834008 | -3.31029557276488 | 7.25037202944504 |
| 179 | 1.64985250865528 | -3.91742676995601 | 7.21713178726657 |
| 180 | 1.35192719272612 | -4.49473686363901 | 7.19859124909125 |
