| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 647978.9063 | 465028.5102 | 830929.3024 | 0.3533 | 0.0149 | 0.5841 | 0.0149 |
| 62 | 847224 | 899885.3501 | 712421.7859 | 1087348.9144 | 0.291 | 0.9883 | 0.2868 | 0.6959 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1145226.5127 | 957762.9485 | 1332690.0769 | 0.2259 | 0.9991 | 0.437 | 0.999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1526539.0261 | 1339075.4619 | 1714002.5903 | 0.4492 | 1 | 0.906 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1557677.577 | 1370214.0127 | 1745141.1412 | 0.2864 | 0.6748 | 0.1388 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1555020.8259 | 1367557.2616 | 1742484.3901 | 0.3104 | 0.7041 | 0.7337 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2914245.0007 | 2726781.4365 | 3101708.5649 | 0.3059 | 1 | 0.4811 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2731457.3543 | 2543993.7901 | 2918920.9185 | 0.2768 | 0.0802 | 0.3219 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1426648.0467 | 1239184.4825 | 1614111.611 | 0.357 | 0 | 0.5813 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1381495.6053 | 1194032.0411 | 1568959.1695 | 0.4372 | 0.4579 | 0.547 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 981156.8335 | 793693.2693 | 1168620.3977 | 0.3577 | 0 | 0.569 | 0.9135 |
| 72 | 859626 | 887512.0944 | 700048.5302 | 1074975.6586 | 0.3853 | 0.2694 | 0.6493 | 0.6493 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1441 | 0.0542 | 0 | 1234755905.776 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1063 | -0.0585 | 0.0564 | 2773217798.7033 | 2003986852.2396 | 44765.9117 |
| 63 | 0.0835 | -0.0628 | 0.0585 | 5179754697.8925 | 3062576134.1239 | 55340.5469 |
| 64 | 0.0627 | -0.008 | 0.0459 | 149158006.8858 | 2334221602.3144 | 48313.7827 |
| 65 | 0.0614 | -0.0346 | 0.0436 | 2909909494.3019 | 2449359180.7119 | 49491.001 |
| 66 | 0.0615 | -0.0304 | 0.0414 | 2238125003.494 | 2414153484.5089 | 49134.0359 |
| 67 | 0.0328 | -0.0167 | 0.0379 | 2356811278.3242 | 2405961740.7682 | 49050.6039 |
| 68 | 0.035 | 0.0207 | 0.0358 | 3211562084.0316 | 2506661783.6761 | 50066.5735 |
| 69 | 0.067 | -0.0246 | 0.0345 | 1228645980.1785 | 2364660027.732 | 48627.7701 |
| 70 | 0.0692 | -0.0109 | 0.0322 | 228541990.2119 | 2151048223.98 | 46379.3944 |
| 71 | 0.0975 | -0.0355 | 0.0325 | 1215347436.0023 | 2065984515.982 | 45453.1024 |
| 72 | 0.1078 | -0.0314 | 0.0324 | 777634261.7443 | 1958621994.7955 | 44256.3215 |
