Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999954119796388 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 39.36 | 39.28 | 0.0799999999999983 |
3 | 39.55 | 39.3599963295837 | 0.190003670416289 |
4 | 39.64 | 39.5499912825929 | 0.0900087174070876 |
5 | 39.8 | 39.6399958703817 | 0.160004129618279 |
6 | 39.79 | 39.7999926589779 | -0.00999265897794999 |
7 | 39.79 | 39.7900004584652 | -4.58465230224192e-07 |
8 | 39.86 | 39.790000000021 | 0.0699999999789682 |
9 | 39.91 | 39.8599967883858 | 0.0500032116142464 |
10 | 40 | 39.9099977058425 | 0.0900022941575358 |
11 | 40.01 | 39.9999958706764 | 0.0100041293235762 |
12 | 40.01 | 40.0099995410085 | 4.58991493701433e-07 |
13 | 40.01 | 40.0099999999789 | 2.10604866879294e-11 |
14 | 39.96 | 40.01 | -0.0499999999999972 |
15 | 40 | 39.9600022940102 | 0.0399977059898191 |
16 | 39.76 | 39.9999981648971 | -0.239998164897109 |
17 | 39.68 | 39.7600110111647 | -0.0800110111646717 |
18 | 39.7 | 39.6800036709215 | 0.0199963290785163 |
19 | 39.7 | 39.6999990825644 | 9.17435649228082e-07 |
20 | 39.73 | 39.6999999999579 | 0.0300000000420866 |
21 | 39.64 | 39.7299986235939 | -0.0899986235938854 |
22 | 39.56 | 39.6400041291552 | -0.0800041291551707 |
23 | 39.67 | 39.5600036706057 | 0.109996329394264 |
24 | 39.66 | 39.669994953346 | -0.00999495334601619 |
25 | 39.66 | 39.6600004585705 | -4.58570497130495e-07 |
26 | 40.05 | 39.660000000021 | 0.389999999978961 |
27 | 39.99 | 40.0499821067206 | -0.0599821067205895 |
28 | 40.06 | 39.9900027519913 | 0.0699972480087325 |
29 | 40.08 | 40.059996788512 | 0.0200032114879889 |
30 | 40.1 | 40.0799990822486 | 0.0200009177514175 |
31 | 40.1 | 40.0999990823538 | 9.17646175935261e-07 |
32 | 40.12 | 40.0999999999579 | 0.0200000000420957 |
33 | 40.07 | 40.1199990823959 | -0.0499990823959209 |
34 | 40.24 | 40.0700022939681 | 0.169997706031921 |
35 | 40.58 | 40.2399922004706 | 0.34000779952936 |
36 | 40.72 | 40.5799844003729 | 0.14001559962707 |
37 | 40.72 | 40.7199935760558 | 6.42394422101233e-06 |
38 | 40.89 | 40.7199999997053 | 0.170000000294735 |
39 | 40.9 | 40.8899922003654 | 0.0100077996346286 |
40 | 41.04 | 40.8999995408401 | 0.140000459159886 |
41 | 41.27 | 41.0399935767504 | 0.230006423249577 |
42 | 41.29 | 41.2699894472585 | 0.0200105527415246 |
43 | 41.29 | 41.2899990819118 | 9.18088232992886e-07 |
44 | 41.33 | 41.2899999999579 | 0.0400000000421201 |
45 | 41.34 | 41.3299981647919 | 0.0100018352081506 |
46 | 41.37 | 41.3399995411138 | 0.0300004588862279 |
47 | 41.33 | 41.3699986235728 | -0.0399986235728349 |
48 | 41.37 | 41.330001835145 | 0.0399981648550067 |
49 | 41.37 | 41.3699981648761 | 1.83512394613672e-06 |
50 | 41.42 | 41.3699999999158 | 0.0500000000842036 |
51 | 41.61 | 41.4199977059898 | 0.190002294010185 |
52 | 41.58 | 41.6099912826561 | -0.0299912826560629 |
53 | 41.75 | 41.5800013760062 | 0.169998623993848 |
54 | 41.75 | 41.7499922004285 | 7.79957148466792e-06 |
55 | 41.75 | 41.7499999996422 | 3.57843532583502e-10 |
56 | 41.85 | 41.75 | 0.100000000000016 |
57 | 41.84 | 41.8499954119796 | -0.00999541197963794 |
58 | 41.97 | 41.8400004585915 | 0.129999541408459 |
59 | 42.01 | 41.9699940355946 | 0.0400059644054309 |
60 | 42.04 | 42.0099981645182 | 0.0300018354817908 |
61 | 42.04 | 42.0399986235097 | 1.37649031728415e-06 |
62 | 42.06 | 42.0399999999368 | 0.0200000000631562 |
63 | 41.93 | 42.0599990823959 | -0.129999082395926 |
64 | 41.93 | 41.9300059643844 | -5.96438437128199e-06 |
65 | 41.99 | 41.9300000002736 | 0.0599999997263581 |
66 | 42.03 | 41.9899972471878 | 0.0400027528122067 |
67 | 42.03 | 42.0299981646656 | 1.83533444442219e-06 |
68 | 42.12 | 42.0299999999158 | 0.0900000000842027 |
69 | 42.22 | 42.1199958707817 | 0.100004129218327 |
70 | 42.21 | 42.2199954117902 | -0.00999541179018593 |
71 | 42.23 | 42.2100004585915 | 0.0199995414084668 |
72 | 42.22 | 42.229999082417 | -0.00999908241696801 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 42.2200004587599 | 42.0323778606825 | 42.4076230568373 |
74 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.9546681227718 | 42.485332794748 |
75 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.8950385260163 | 42.5449623915036 |
76 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.8447681747756 | 42.5952327427443 |
77 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.8004789740232 | 42.6395219434966 |
78 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.760438400527 | 42.6795625169929 |
79 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.7236172453261 | 42.7163836721937 |
80 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.6893449171979 | 42.750656000322 |
81 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.6571556195706 | 42.7828452979493 |
82 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.6267102075223 | 42.8132907099976 |
83 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.5977526532795 | 42.8422482642404 |
84 | 42.2200004587599 | 41.5700840482602 | 42.8699168692597 |