Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.00412567960433317 |
gamma | 0.119415377376804 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.94 | 0.961983272056199 | -0.0219832720561992 |
14 | 0.96 | 0.961252375360522 | -0.00125237536052225 |
15 | 0.98 | 0.979228970026549 | 0.000771029973451354 |
16 | 1.01 | 1.00376478140636 | 0.00623521859363851 |
17 | 1.01 | 0.997647710938682 | 0.0123522890613182 |
18 | 1.02 | 1.00690130738405 | 0.0130986926159471 |
19 | 1.04 | 1.06147920510776 | -0.0214792051077581 |
20 | 1.03 | 1.04475306946454 | -0.0147530694645364 |
21 | 1.05 | 0.995211592924852 | 0.0547884070751479 |
22 | 1.08 | 1.01284297384847 | 0.0671570261515331 |
23 | 1.17 | 1.09525456249025 | 0.0747454375097498 |
24 | 1.11 | 1.17440161588828 | -0.064401615888277 |
25 | 1.11 | 1.05634644839358 | 0.0536535516064156 |
26 | 1.11 | 1.13597733712784 | -0.0259773371278378 |
27 | 1.2 | 1.13301116047558 | 0.0669888395244185 |
28 | 1.21 | 1.23023011782245 | -0.020230117822452 |
29 | 1.31 | 1.19618555247539 | 0.113814447524614 |
30 | 1.37 | 1.30743925106135 | 0.0625607489386455 |
31 | 1.37 | 1.42745767620478 | -0.0574576762047809 |
32 | 1.26 | 1.37787750518531 | -0.117877505185307 |
33 | 1.23 | 1.21853837809197 | 0.0114616219080286 |
34 | 1.17 | 1.18728017690399 | -0.0172801769039943 |
35 | 1.06 | 1.18691816194647 | -0.126918161946471 |
36 | 0.95 | 1.06352582676318 | -0.113525826763181 |
37 | 0.92 | 0.903412565220666 | 0.0165874347793343 |
38 | 0.92 | 0.940723442483331 | -0.0207234424833307 |
39 | 0.9 | 0.938251570673106 | -0.0382515706731061 |
40 | 0.93 | 0.92144784391513 | 0.00855215608486992 |
41 | 0.93 | 0.918266833899054 | 0.011733166100946 |
42 | 0.97 | 0.926789804212559 | 0.0432101957874407 |
43 | 0.96 | 1.00922834331053 | -0.0492283433105334 |
44 | 0.99 | 0.964027913895511 | 0.0259720861044888 |
45 | 0.98 | 0.956403304184216 | 0.0235966958157843 |
46 | 0.96 | 0.945035250734076 | 0.0149647492659243 |
47 | 1 | 0.973058531567886 | 0.0269414684321138 |
48 | 0.99 | 1.00309652449507 | -0.0130965244950734 |
49 | 1.03 | 0.941686449199569 | 0.0883135508004311 |
50 | 1.02 | 1.05380492759821 | -0.0338049275982089 |
51 | 1.07 | 1.0407970904775 | 0.0292029095225019 |
52 | 1.13 | 1.0964658745759 | 0.0335341254241017 |
53 | 1.15 | 1.11682206898449 | 0.0331779310155054 |
54 | 1.16 | 1.14720575434468 | 0.0127942456553161 |
55 | 1.14 | 1.20792670710948 | -0.0679267071094787 |
56 | 1.15 | 1.14575650413694 | 0.00424349586305572 |
57 | 1.15 | 1.11178465746427 | 0.0382153425357341 |
58 | 1.16 | 1.10980530000622 | 0.0501946999937837 |
59 | 1.17 | 1.1767891519441 | -0.0067891519441019 |
60 | 1.22 | 1.17444930452718 | 0.0455506954728235 |
61 | 1.26 | 1.16152897316569 | 0.0984710268343123 |
62 | 1.29 | 1.2901659614997 | -0.000165961499696055 |
63 | 1.36 | 1.31756157149894 | 0.0424384285010646 |
64 | 1.38 | 1.39495522493229 | -0.0149552249322853 |
65 | 1.37 | 1.36496305355818 | 0.00503694644182473 |
66 | 1.37 | 1.36757722611654 | 0.00242277388345724 |
67 | 1.37 | 1.42749137585656 | -0.0574913758565589 |
68 | 1.36 | 1.37791124387987 | -0.017911243879867 |
69 | 1.38 | 1.31566987022224 | 0.064330129777759 |
70 | 1.4 | 1.33267793299745 | 0.0673220670025465 |
71 | 1.44 | 1.42121640158133 | 0.0187835984186717 |
72 | 1.42 | 1.44654315603357 | -0.0265431560335687 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.3526517000711 | 1.25542628867504 | 1.44987711146716 |
74 | 1.38533750875254 | 1.24592760188185 | 1.52474741562322 |
75 | 1.4152444494928 | 1.24240567142413 | 1.58808322756147 |
76 | 1.45177240513624 | 1.24904098131549 | 1.65450382895699 |
77 | 1.43615868561257 | 1.21267687768361 | 1.65964049354152 |
78 | 1.43380498891229 | 1.18974053640761 | 1.67786944141698 |
79 | 1.49415826784628 | 1.221076419128 | 1.76724011656456 |
80 | 1.50319309506415 | 1.21090009239468 | 1.79548609773361 |
81 | 1.45465856608073 | 1.15467007652963 | 1.75464705563183 |
82 | 1.40498041253061 | 1.09844797834841 | 1.71151284671281 |
83 | 1.42623684499238 | 1.09924785228532 | 1.75322583769943 |
84 | 1.43261905210506 | -90.2898686300376 | 93.1551067342477 |