Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.834190584506887
beta0.031437180257268
gamma1


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
13299.5237.62747618614461.872523813856
14347.4334.68420332628912.7157966737113
15338.3337.1242383195921.17576168040813
16327.7326.9401176590790.759882340921422
17351.6351.0532409789430.546759021057483
18396.6398.633000518453-2.03300051845287
19438.8389.48984628827349.3101537117265
20395.6405.364615816597-9.76461581659743
21363.5370.107395833138-6.6073958331383
22378.8311.42696738422867.3730326157723
23357425.406491421039-68.4064914210393
24369393.290788189582-24.2907881895825
25464.8513.533753724403-48.7337537244029
26479.1521.378815401934-42.2788154019337
27431.3463.753172723452-32.4531727234522
28366.5415.288175047724-48.7881750477242
29326.3395.158503716617-68.8585037166167
30355.1376.753057716877-21.6530577168767
31331.6353.723145062845-22.1231450628452
32261.3304.340882188164-43.0408821881645
33249246.9603481815592.0396518184408
34205.5216.679853301497-11.1798533014967
35235.6222.94211720237412.6578827976257
36240.9251.583084970632-10.6830849706319
37264.9328.257617341279-63.3576173412786
38253.8300.622155813975-46.8221558139753
39232.3246.570735622619-14.2707356226186
40193.8217.974021763539-24.1740217635387
41177203.015550718543-26.0155507185428
42213.2203.9928181941679.20718180583302
43207.2205.5960254777591.60397452224117
44180.6182.439793276521-1.8397932765206
45188.6169.17274925647619.4272507435239
46175.4158.31067010956517.0893298904349
47199187.48481543018511.5151845698146
48179.6207.498578232865-27.8985782328651
49225.8239.439214992889-13.639214992889
50234249.392887806507-15.3928878065072
51200.2226.171511133475-25.971511133475
52183.6186.658271387445-3.05827138744547
53178.2187.212548205795-9.01254820579513
54203.2207.693982599855-4.49398259985483
55208.5195.84678877003412.6532112299661
56191.8180.67041094713611.1295890528642
57172.8180.531206710715-7.73120671071516
58148147.7256237047320.274376295268155
59159.4158.5941472170290.805852782970646
60154.5160.69689410609-6.19689410609001
61213.2204.0714491721659.12855082783452
62196.4230.365107477513-33.9651074775134
63182.8189.974333411023-7.17433341102279
64176.4170.2599431965066.14005680349447
65153.6176.720028869069-23.1200288690693
66173.2181.741312509601-8.54131250960052
67171168.8718272037682.12817279623212
68151.2148.165635555183.03436444482023
69161.9139.63601061023622.2639893897645
70157.2134.8061176484922.3938823515097
71201.7164.58153835015937.1184616498409
72236.4196.54416510366239.8558348963378
73356.1307.95487481573448.1451251842659
74398.3368.7423190396929.5576809603104
75403.7382.88247820156120.8175217984393
76384.6380.2368131795354.36318682046527
77365.8380.127495156034-14.3274951560337
78368.1438.947318995162-70.8473189951621
79367.9376.476661613934-8.57666161393411
80347325.42662496650221.5733750334978
81343.3329.05557059523614.2444294047643
82292.9293.809700047191-0.909700047190825
83311.5318.635578971601-7.13557897160143
84300.9314.220628238644-13.3206282386442
85366.9403.388371532006-36.4883715320059
86356.9389.091648366216-32.1916483662155
87329.7348.652797695283-18.9527976952833
88316.2311.3075662392574.89243376074319
89269307.08287922682-38.0828792268197
90289.3316.793051056945-27.4930510569451
91266.2296.430059110764-30.2300591107644
92253.6239.49312356844614.106876431554
93233.8237.186895038394-3.3868950383939
94228.4198.02814214542130.3718578545791
95253.6239.98753593519313.6124640648075
96260.1249.94801769476610.1519823052341
97306.6339.008756096318-32.4087560963179
98309.2324.090947732871-14.8909477328715
99309.5300.0269105010599.47308949894102
100271290.523410386585-19.523410386585
101279.9258.8628848331321.0371151668697
102317.9320.267363671677-2.36736367167703
103298.4320.511644503273-22.1116445032731
104246.7274.904395761414-28.2043957614139
105227.3234.090662576315-6.79066257631499
106209.1197.37225093260411.7277490673957
107259.9218.69359495691641.2064050430837
108266250.74243224976815.2575677502324
109320.6337.232706264234-16.6327062642335
110308.5339.199022799051-30.6990227990515
111282.2305.595219572579-23.3952195725793
112262.7264.450583587167-1.75058358716683
113263.5253.8723120248289.62768797517214
114313.1298.4449619834514.6550380165505
115284.3308.950332594952-24.6503325949518
116252.6260.242475622617-7.64247562261707
117250.3239.71286832334610.5871316766543
118246.5218.26938366043228.2306163395681
119312.7260.61976485270952.0802351472911
120333.2297.08221912050536.117780879495
121446.4412.91330169536233.4866983046382
122511.6461.75040030159949.8495996984008
123515.5496.78733338736518.7126666126352
124506.4485.61993897228220.7800610277183
125483.2495.424325051233-12.224325051233
126522.3560.292748685792-37.9927486857918
127509.8518.892824477613-9.09282447761262
128460.7470.719734730803-10.0197347308028
129405.8446.758347791208-40.9583477912078
130375369.7271233421685.27287665783172
131378.5408.946064638846-30.4460646388464
132406.8371.0039540230135.7960459769897
133467.8502.744824266567-34.9448242665666
134469.8496.311550713925-26.5115507139251
135429.8460.514091290239-30.714091290239
136355.8409.273950575552-53.4739505755515
137332.7351.208595366488-18.5085953664883
138378379.995421767689-1.9954217676887
139360.5370.589625795266-10.0896257952657
140334.7329.408747007335.29125299266991
141319.5315.046895443794.45310455621029
142323.1288.67269792964334.4273020703574
143363.6339.59553971749924.0044602825013
144352.1356.752272691077-4.65227269107731
145411.9428.735450171574-16.8354501715741
146388.6434.059236163882-45.4592361638824
147416.4381.57452319237934.8254768076207
148360.7380.716348230222-20.0163482302219
149338355.979403173344-17.9794031733436
150417.2389.07017652366228.1298234763379
151388.4403.295842983131-14.8958429831309
152371.1358.65892425826512.4410757417355
153331.5348.865331958693-17.3653319586929
154353.7307.6601799423246.0398200576804
155396.7368.10785359922828.5921464007715
156447384.12974459001262.8702554099876
157533.5530.3152915651153.1847084348849
158565.4553.88349592460611.5165040753943
159542.3565.735654806211-23.4356548062106
160488.7497.427065666539-8.72706566653926
161467.1482.452878998812-15.3528789988121
162531.3550.414094784084-19.1140947840837
163496.1515.561418835741-19.461418835741
164444465.66622071949-21.6662207194897
165403.4418.149993873039-14.749993873039
166386.3386.0580294519060.241970548094002
167394.1406.636200508531-12.5362005085313
168404.1391.64650741364712.4534925863526
169462.1474.973714289943-12.8737142899435
170448.1480.776403728945-32.676403728945
171432.3447.026236723786-14.7262367237865
172386.3394.483547810604-8.18354781060435
173395.2377.60133159086617.5986684091339
174421.9456.711511348738-34.8115113487377
175382.9409.284132305238-26.3841323052378
176384.2357.58883714815226.6111628518479
177345.5353.631653040761-8.13165304076142
178323.4330.274534280892-6.87453428089191
179372.6337.89842695685534.7015730431453
180376365.57883461912810.4211653808717
181462.7436.86472579621625.835274203784
182487471.10841380620215.8915861937983
183444.2481.542046865439-37.3420468654393
184399.3410.006145369817-10.7061453698171
185394.9395.348280574098-0.448280574097964
186455.4450.1906610102875.20933898971288
187414436.889108589522-22.8891085895219
188375.5395.730116735238-20.2301167352382
189347347.072853683204-0.0728536832044142
190339.4330.4908665999378.90913340006267
191385.8359.00849755172426.7915024482763
192378.8376.0379777339482.76202226605182
193451.8443.6232318860798.17676811392084
194446.1460.613734749215-14.5137347492152
195422.5436.210923450449-13.7109234504486
196383.1389.725762184658-6.62576218465813
197352.8379.807791542918-27.0077915429184
198445.3406.71620417741438.583795822586
199367.5416.756905232519-49.2569052325194
200355.1354.7719564387920.328043561208347
201326.2327.571762781303-1.37176278130289
202319.8311.6617793138028.13822068619851
203331.8340.127512628523-8.32751262852292
204340.9323.68277311984317.2172268801566
205394.1395.811999186779-1.71199918677939
206417.2398.40661380740718.7933861925928
207369.9402.044103018554-32.1441030185537
208349.2344.0270064828535.17299351714666
209321.4340.223476236562-18.8234762365619
210405.7378.81187608287226.8881239171282
211342.9366.447768672186-23.5477686721862
212316.5334.516743842739-18.0167438427388
213284.2293.719817858008-9.51981785800808
214270.9273.199229921774-2.2992299217745
215288.8285.9789363457242.82106365427614
216278.8282.599199646974-3.79919964697427
217324.4322.3677047639142.03229523608553
218310.9328.28662438514-17.3866243851397
219299295.5503651293933.44963487060727
220273276.590977095801-3.59097709580067
221279.3262.187373292117.1126267078999
222359.2328.42282671849730.777173281503
223305315.485273708733-10.485273708733
224282.1295.993398946785-13.8933989467853
225250.3262.117445690334-11.8174456903335
226246.5241.7026846334084.79731536659227
227257.9259.552901517994-1.65290151799388
228266.5251.68155912937514.8184408706248
229315.9305.86691528883510.0330847111651
230318.4315.5943371441752.80566285582455
231295.4303.953123143239-8.55312314323862
232266.4274.663141610826-8.26314161082638
233245.8260.326895347558-14.5268953475581
234362.8295.47437034271867.325629657282
235324.9307.614504661417.2854953386
236294.2311.327565494243-17.127565494243
237289.5275.0265357023214.4734642976804
238295.2280.17312536254615.0268746374545
239290.3310.393457438262-20.0934574382615
240272291.134291337256-19.1342913372559
241307.4318.394288971498-10.9942889714977
242328.7309.61902062617319.0809793738275
243292.9309.996014049048-17.0960140490475
244249.1273.990462735573-24.8904627355728
245230.4244.940768552504-14.5407685525038
246361.5288.56622411982572.9337758801753
247321.7298.91759317120522.7824068287948
248277.2301.906370001759-24.706370001759
249260.7265.109787479961-4.40978747996132
250251254.615925394863-3.61592539486318
251257.6260.504177241417-2.90417724141673
252241.8255.189722282328-13.3897222823276
253287.5283.3145311895024.18546881049753
254292.3291.4578137779890.842186222011208
255274.7272.2171214175752.48287858242503
256254.2252.2612767187481.93872328125246
257230247.720219616271-17.7202196162712
258339302.58468213610136.4153178638992
259318.2278.25641602981739.9435839701833
260287288.304590422166-1.30459042216586
261295.8274.68837325623621.1116267437636
262284286.288122087377-2.28812208737685
263271296.208109798517-25.2081097985167
264262.7271.071932395466-8.37193239546559
265340.6311.51982258983529.0801774101649
266379.4342.71641532181936.6835846781809
267373.3351.26003399654122.0399660034586
268355.2343.27239004781811.9276099521818
269338.4343.450492533053-5.0504925330531
270466.9460.0977503491496.80224965085091
271451394.06858158844656.9314184115538
272422403.08274740024218.9172525997582
273429.2409.43878130907719.7612186909229
274425.9415.00858808246810.8914119175324
275460.7439.38538733637621.3146126636237
276463.6460.2286812217383.37131877826153
277541.4564.015329469287-22.6153294692868
278544.2562.69632561997-18.4963256199696
279517.5514.8111447783412.6888552216592
280469.4480.380068375141-10.9800683751409
281439.4456.080747737397-16.6807477373974
282549604.457449151509-55.4574491515089
283533481.53649826616751.4635017338326
284506.1472.24085562589333.8591443741071
285484489.525707072904-5.52570707290351
286457470.559693217155-13.559693217155
287481.5476.6481882197824.85181178021816
288469.5479.682441849627-10.1824418496273
289544.7567.718561708997-23.0185617089969
290541.2565.287878180974-24.087878180974
291521.5514.6040538418256.89594615817475
292469.7479.791550330825-10.0915503308254
293434.4453.845780084405-19.4457800844047
294542.6590.308879245808-47.7088792458078
295517.3489.2670135359828.03298646402
296485.7457.60194587392628.0980541260739
297465.8462.7058417596473.09415824035347
298447448.684024928836-1.68402492883632
299426.6466.00833545761-39.4083354576098
300411.6427.865003909898-16.2650039098976
301467.5494.845873504542-27.3458735045425
302484.5483.4598717806131.04012821938676
303451.2459.313553104639-8.11355310463915
304417.4412.5862453417394.8137546582613
305379.9397.681557749075-17.7815577490746
306484.7510.249071521608-25.5490715216084
307455442.93013030522212.0698696947784
308420.8402.60756168421118.192438315789
309416.5396.4252206660820.0747793339204
310376.3396.178937745948-19.8789377459477
311405.6387.77501938937417.8249806106257
312405.8400.4140608589785.38593914102177
313500.8481.77155726759819.0284427324022
314514515.647174743247-1.64717474324652
315475.5486.806660292497-11.306660292497
316430.1437.949490856295-7.84949085629466
317414.4408.1047603309596.295239669041
318538551.565953969009-13.5659539690089
319526497.32432427319228.6756757268079
320488.5466.21370771284522.2862922871553
321520.2462.00783473959158.1921652604094
322504.4483.75011076952920.6498892304714
323568.5523.66164621816944.8383537818307
324610.6559.20039101493851.3996089850621
325818725.48716090495992.5128390950406
326830.9833.897165879612-2.99716587961166
327835.9791.70469101112444.1953089888756
328782768.99028122842213.0097187715784
329762.3750.19003056240312.1099694375973
330856.91018.79199894703-161.891998947031
331820.9831.464573519983-10.5645735199826
332769.6739.76052706983129.8394729301687
333752.2741.56884236875410.6311576312463
334724.4705.39250955428819.0074904457116
335723.1761.351679831511-38.2516798315112
336719.5728.329768107029-8.82976810702894
337817.4872.180480638597-54.7804806385972
338803.3838.572796558803-35.2727965588035
339752.5774.049546250145-21.5495462501455
340689693.188259910458-4.18825991045821
341630.4659.132267092677-28.7322670926773
342765.5816.947179271022-51.4471792710218
343757.7744.9816723826312.7183276173703
344732.2681.69546783230750.5045321676928
345702.6696.0632294089876.53677059101324
346683.3657.87891928889125.4210807111085
347709.5704.7400894481514.75991055184909
348702.2710.372544631892-8.17254463189238
349784.8841.119473579377-56.3194735793766
350810.9806.3898101226944.51018987730606
351755.6775.406805500612-19.8068055006121
352656.8696.986623072339-40.1866230723388
353615.1627.941855173634-12.8418551736344
354745.3788.932087670063-43.632087670063
355694.1732.481713641722-38.3817136417224
356675.7634.71114219716440.9888578028365
357643.7634.1310170955999.56898290440074
358622.1602.49283894610119.6071610538993
359634.6636.370804952036-1.77080495203552
360588631.757378193193-43.7573781931933
361689.7700.60040366505-10.9004036650502
362673.9707.896450127655-33.9964501276553
363647.9643.0945752979424.80542470205773
364568.8587.828381850891-19.0283818508909
365545.7542.3561361750263.34386382497382
366632.6689.663175681701-57.0631756817014
367643.8622.08585426298821.7141457370117
368593.1589.7359675596393.36403244036103
369579.7555.11500054485824.5849994551418
370546539.7776804194466.22231958055443
371562.9555.0752613477727.82473865222789
372572.5550.40322048961722.0967795103828


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
373675.605005237489622.799731966416728.410278508562
374687.557023555618617.377763291448757.736283819788
375657.669963198733575.506598033477739.833328363988
376593.946199397638505.077273212376682.8151255829
377567.936068496433469.834611645689666.037525347176
378708.351039658234576.993485129124839.708594187343
379703.360616379648562.251209096681844.470023662615
380646.90116412048506.040242053845787.762086187114
381611.554367646955467.594832514081755.513902779829
382571.504842363059426.191861361293716.817823364825
383583.173504746047424.881836929064741.46517256303
384574.497670207305283.317387101132865.677953313478