Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999919133050049 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 101.72 | 101.81 | -0.0900000000000034 |
3 | 101.78 | 101.720007278025 | 0.0599927219745098 |
4 | 102.04 | 101.779995148572 | 0.260004851428448 |
5 | 102.36 | 102.039978974201 | 0.320021025799306 |
6 | 102.56 | 102.359974120876 | 0.200025879124283 |
7 | 102.69 | 102.559983824517 | 0.130016175482751 |
8 | 102.77 | 102.689989485988 | 0.0800105140115477 |
9 | 102.85 | 102.769993529794 | 0.0800064702062286 |
10 | 102.9 | 102.849993530121 | 0.0500064698792357 |
11 | 102.72 | 102.899995956129 | -0.179995956129304 |
12 | 102.79 | 102.720014555724 | 0.0699854442760284 |
13 | 102.9 | 102.789994340491 | 0.110005659509426 |
14 | 102.91 | 102.899991104178 | 0.0100088958221534 |
15 | 103.29 | 102.909999190611 | 0.380000809388889 |
16 | 103.35 | 103.289969270494 | 0.0600307295064226 |
17 | 102.97 | 103.349995145498 | -0.379995145498 |
18 | 103.05 | 102.970030729048 | 0.0799692709515796 |
19 | 103.18 | 103.049993533129 | 0.130006466871038 |
20 | 103.21 | 103.179989486774 | 0.0300105132264434 |
21 | 103.32 | 103.209997573141 | 0.110002426858671 |
22 | 103.31 | 103.319991104439 | -0.00999110443923712 |
23 | 103.6 | 103.31000080795 | 0.289999192049848 |
24 | 103.68 | 103.59997654865 | 0.0800234513501579 |
25 | 103.77 | 103.679993528748 | 0.0900064712524227 |
26 | 103.82 | 103.769992721451 | 0.0500072785488044 |
27 | 103.86 | 103.819995956064 | 0.0400040439360936 |
28 | 103.9 | 103.859996764995 | 0.040003235005031 |
29 | 103.63 | 103.89999676506 | -0.269996765060412 |
30 | 103.65 | 103.630021833815 | 0.0199781661851262 |
31 | 103.7 | 103.649998384427 | 0.0500016155733647 |
32 | 103.77 | 103.699995956522 | 0.0700040434781357 |
33 | 103.94 | 103.769994338987 | 0.170005661013477 |
34 | 104.03 | 103.939986252161 | 0.0900137478392793 |
35 | 104.03 | 104.029992720863 | 7.27913723608253e-06 |
36 | 104.29 | 104.029999999411 | 0.260000000588647 |
37 | 104.35 | 104.289978974593 | 0.0600210254070248 |
38 | 104.67 | 104.349995146283 | 0.320004853717265 |
39 | 104.73 | 104.669974122184 | 0.0600258778164857 |
40 | 104.86 | 104.72999514589 | 0.130004854109657 |
41 | 104.05 | 104.859989486904 | -0.809989486903973 |
42 | 104.15 | 104.050065501379 | 0.099934498620712 |
43 | 104.27 | 104.149991918602 | 0.120008081398083 |
44 | 104.33 | 104.269990295312 | 0.0600097046875163 |
45 | 104.41 | 104.329995147198 | 0.0800048528017783 |
46 | 104.4 | 104.409993530252 | -0.00999353025156324 |
47 | 104.41 | 104.400000808146 | 0.00999919185368014 |
48 | 104.6 | 104.409999191396 | 0.19000080860414 |
49 | 104.61 | 104.599984635214 | 0.010015364785886 |
50 | 104.65 | 104.609999190088 | 0.0400008099120157 |
51 | 104.55 | 104.649996765257 | -0.0999967652565203 |
52 | 104.51 | 104.550008086433 | -0.0400080864334029 |
53 | 104.74 | 104.510003235332 | 0.229996764668073 |
54 | 104.89 | 104.739981400863 | 0.150018599136857 |
55 | 104.91 | 104.889987868453 | 0.0200121315465509 |
56 | 104.93 | 104.90999838168 | 0.0200016183200518 |
57 | 104.95 | 104.92999838253 | 0.020001617469859 |
58 | 104.97 | 104.94999838253 | 0.0200016174697879 |
59 | 105.16 | 104.96999838253 | 0.19000161746979 |
60 | 105.29 | 105.159984635149 | 0.130015364851303 |
61 | 105.35 | 105.289989486054 | 0.060010513945997 |
62 | 105.36 | 105.349995147133 | 0.0100048528672261 |
63 | 105.45 | 105.359999190938 | 0.0900008090619338 |
64 | 105.3 | 105.449992721909 | -0.149992721909086 |
65 | 105.73 | 105.300012129454 | 0.429987870546071 |
66 | 105.86 | 105.729965228192 | 0.130034771807601 |
67 | 105.85 | 105.859989484485 | -0.00998948448462045 |
68 | 105.95 | 105.850000807819 | 0.0999991921808601 |
69 | 105.97 | 105.94999191337 | 0.0200080866296588 |
70 | 106.15 | 105.969998382007 | 0.180001617992943 |
71 | 105.37 | 106.149985443818 | -0.779985443818163 |
72 | 105.39 | 105.370063075044 | 0.0199369249561414 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 105.389998387762 | 105.010405081416 | 105.769591694107 |
74 | 105.389998387762 | 104.853194091044 | 105.92680268448 |
75 | 105.389998387762 | 104.732558939807 | 106.047437835717 |
76 | 105.389998387762 | 104.630857819435 | 106.149138956089 |
77 | 105.389998387762 | 104.541256862188 | 106.238739913335 |
78 | 105.389998387762 | 104.460251136093 | 106.31974563943 |
79 | 105.389998387762 | 104.385758512663 | 106.39423826286 |
80 | 105.389998387762 | 104.31642235343 | 106.463574422093 |
81 | 105.389998387762 | 104.251300325832 | 106.528696449692 |
82 | 105.389998387762 | 104.189706318724 | 106.5902904568 |
83 | 105.389998387762 | 104.131122370932 | 106.648874404591 |
84 | 105.389998387762 | 104.075146076473 | 106.70485069905 |