Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0721091693624068 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 101.78 | 101.63 | 0.150000000000006 |
4 | 102.04 | 101.700816375404 | 0.339183624595648 |
5 | 102.36 | 101.985274624835 | 0.374725375164715 |
6 | 102.56 | 102.332295760377 | 0.227704239622582 |
7 | 102.69 | 102.548715323957 | 0.141284676043085 |
8 | 102.77 | 102.68890324459 | 0.0810967554099875 |
9 | 102.85 | 102.774751064261 | 0.0752489357393813 |
10 | 102.9 | 102.860177202512 | 0.0398227974878296 |
11 | 102.72 | 102.913048791361 | -0.193048791360724 |
12 | 102.79 | 102.719128203369 | 0.0708717966307262 |
13 | 102.9 | 102.794238709756 | 0.105761290244459 |
14 | 102.91 | 102.911865068546 | -0.00186506854578283 |
15 | 103.29 | 102.921730580002 | 0.368269419997887 |
16 | 103.35 | 103.32828618198 | 0.0217138180202312 |
17 | 102.97 | 103.389851947361 | -0.419851947360868 |
18 | 103.05 | 102.979576772181 | 0.0704232278185088 |
19 | 103.18 | 103.064654932643 | 0.115345067356699 |
20 | 103.21 | 103.20297236964 | 0.0070276303595449 |
21 | 103.32 | 103.233479126228 | 0.0865208737717325 |
22 | 103.31 | 103.349718074568 | -0.0397180745684409 |
23 | 103.6 | 103.336854037203 | 0.263145962797353 |
24 | 103.68 | 103.645829274001 | 0.0341707259989761 |
25 | 103.77 | 103.728293296669 | 0.0417067033306608 |
26 | 103.82 | 103.821300732403 | -0.00130073240335093 |
27 | 103.86 | 103.87120693767 | -0.0112069376701811 |
28 | 103.9 | 103.910398814704 | -0.0103988147036773 |
29 | 103.63 | 103.949648964813 | -0.319648964813055 |
30 | 103.65 | 103.656599343473 | -0.00659934347281421 |
31 | 103.7 | 103.676123470297 | 0.0238765297033297 |
32 | 103.77 | 103.727845187021 | 0.0421548129791631 |
33 | 103.94 | 103.800884935569 | 0.139115064430612 |
34 | 104.03 | 103.980916407311 | 0.0490835926887314 |
35 | 104.03 | 104.074455784409 | -0.0444557844093794 |
36 | 104.29 | 104.071250114722 | 0.218749885277731 |
37 | 104.35 | 104.347023987248 | 0.00297601275222803 |
38 | 104.67 | 104.407238585055 | 0.262761414944663 |
39 | 104.73 | 104.746186092427 | -0.016186092427489 |
40 | 104.86 | 104.805018926747 | 0.0549810732526765 |
41 | 104.05 | 104.93898356627 | -0.888983566270227 |
42 | 104.15 | 104.06487969973 | 0.0851203002703613 |
43 | 104.27 | 104.171017653878 | 0.0989823461219714 |
44 | 104.33 | 104.298155188638 | 0.0318448113615801 |
45 | 104.41 | 104.360451491534 | 0.0495485084657901 |
46 | 104.4 | 104.444024393323 | -0.0440243933228146 |
47 | 104.41 | 104.430849830889 | -0.0208498308886362 |
48 | 104.6 | 104.439346366902 | 0.160653633098093 |
49 | 104.61 | 104.64093096694 | -0.0309309669396498 |
50 | 104.65 | 104.648700560606 | 0.0012994393939465 |
51 | 104.55 | 104.688794262101 | -0.138794262101413 |
52 | 104.51 | 104.578785923149 | -0.0687859231489938 |
53 | 104.74 | 104.533825827367 | 0.206174172633098 |
54 | 104.89 | 104.778692875699 | 0.111307124300552 |
55 | 104.91 | 104.936719139977 | -0.0267191399768905 |
56 | 104.93 | 104.954792444987 | -0.0247924449870567 |
57 | 104.95 | 104.973004682373 | -0.0230046823726013 |
58 | 104.97 | 104.991345833835 | -0.0213458338352552 |
59 | 105.16 | 105.009806603488 | 0.150193396511952 |
60 | 105.29 | 105.210636924554 | 0.0793630754457695 |
61 | 105.35 | 105.346359730003 | 0.00364026999730527 |
62 | 105.36 | 105.406622226848 | -0.0466222268484415 |
63 | 105.45 | 105.413260336797 | 0.03673966320342 |
64 | 105.3 | 105.505909603393 | -0.20590960339284 |
65 | 105.73 | 105.341061632928 | 0.388938367071574 |
66 | 105.86 | 105.799107655511 | 0.0608923444888632 |
67 | 105.85 | 105.933498551893 | -0.0834985518927596 |
68 | 105.95 | 105.917477540673 | 0.0325224593272111 |
69 | 105.97 | 106.019822708201 | -0.0498227082005087 |
70 | 106.15 | 106.036230034097 | 0.113769965903217 |
71 | 105.37 | 106.224433891836 | -0.854433891836464 |
72 | 105.39 | 105.382821373621 | 0.00717862637895905 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 105.403339018406 | 104.997882103699 | 105.808795933114 |
74 | 105.416678036813 | 104.822241959991 | 106.011114113635 |
75 | 105.430017055219 | 104.675970344176 | 106.184063766263 |
76 | 105.443356073626 | 104.542355789544 | 106.344356357707 |
77 | 105.456695092032 | 104.415201414149 | 106.498188769915 |
78 | 105.470034110438 | 104.291467704543 | 106.648600516334 |
79 | 105.483373128845 | 104.169432410536 | 106.797313847153 |
80 | 105.496712147251 | 104.048028945635 | 106.945395348867 |
81 | 105.510051165658 | 103.926556038239 | 107.093546293076 |
82 | 105.523390184064 | 103.804532646577 | 107.242247721551 |
83 | 105.53672920247 | 103.681618454105 | 107.391839950836 |
84 | 105.550068220877 | 103.557567178132 | 107.542569263622 |