| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.00321851640039641 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 132 | 124 | 8 |
| 4 | 129 | 138.025748131203 | -9.02574813120316 |
| 5 | 121 | 134.996698612817 | -13.9966986128171 |
| 6 | 135 | 126.95165000878 | 8.04834999121971 |
| 7 | 148 | 140.977553755223 | 7.02244624477683 |
| 8 | 148 | 154.000155613633 | -6.00015561363287 |
| 9 | 136 | 153.980844014385 | -17.9808440143855 |
| 10 | 119 | 141.922972373032 | -22.9229723730322 |
| 11 | 104 | 124.849194410504 | -20.8491944105038 |
| 12 | 118 | 109.782090936359 | 8.2179090636415 |
| 13 | 115 | 123.808540411457 | -8.8085404114568 |
| 14 | 126 | 120.780189979679 | 5.21981002032103 |
| 15 | 141 | 131.796990023836 | 9.20300997616368 |
| 16 | 135 | 146.826610062378 | -11.8266100623776 |
| 17 | 125 | 140.788545923931 | -15.7885459239308 |
| 18 | 149 | 130.737730229936 | 18.2622697700638 |
| 19 | 170 | 154.7965076447 | 15.2034923553004 |
| 20 | 170 | 175.845440334188 | -5.84544033418842 |
| 21 | 158 | 175.826626688605 | -17.8266266886053 |
| 22 | 133 | 163.769251398244 | -30.7692513982443 |
| 23 | 114 | 138.670220057991 | -24.6702200579911 |
| 24 | 140 | 119.590818550133 | 20.4091814498669 |
| 25 | 145 | 145.656505835348 | -0.656505835348156 |
| 26 | 150 | 150.65439286055 | -0.654392860550132 |
| 27 | 178 | 155.652286686396 | 22.3477133136039 |
| 28 | 163 | 183.724213168207 | -20.7242131682073 |
| 29 | 172 | 168.65751194824 | 3.34248805175986 |
| 30 | 178 | 177.668269800853 | 0.331730199147131 |
| 31 | 199 | 183.669337479939 | 15.3306625200607 |
| 32 | 199 | 204.718679468689 | -5.71867946868909 |
| 33 | 184 | 204.70027380503 | -20.7002738050305 |
| 34 | 162 | 189.633649634296 | -27.6336496342963 |
| 35 | 146 | 167.544710279746 | -21.5447102797455 |
| 36 | 166 | 151.475368276368 | 14.5246317236316 |
| 37 | 171 | 171.522116041781 | -0.522116041780606 |
| 38 | 180 | 176.520435602737 | 3.47956439726278 |
| 39 | 193 | 185.531634637816 | 7.46836536218396 |
| 40 | 181 | 198.555671694218 | -17.5556716942184 |
| 41 | 183 | 186.499168476951 | -3.49916847695056 |
| 42 | 218 | 188.48790634582 | 29.5120936541803 |
| 43 | 230 | 223.582891503256 | 6.41710849674425 |
| 44 | 242 | 235.603545072196 | 6.39645492780434 |
| 45 | 209 | 247.624132167285 | -38.6241321672852 |
| 46 | 191 | 214.499819764454 | -23.4998197644537 |
| 47 | 172 | 196.424185209135 | -24.4241852091355 |
| 48 | 194 | 177.345575568474 | 16.6544244315265 |
| 49 | 196 | 199.399178106646 | -3.39917810664556 |
| 50 | 196 | 201.388237796161 | -5.38823779616146 |
| 51 | 236 | 201.370895664445 | 34.6291043355547 |
| 52 | 235 | 241.48235000468 | -6.48235000468028 |
| 53 | 229 | 240.461486454877 | -11.4614864548771 |
| 54 | 243 | 234.424597472749 | 8.57540252725082 |
| 55 | 264 | 248.452197546423 | 15.5478024535769 |
| 56 | 272 | 269.50223840361 | 2.49776159638992 |
| 57 | 237 | 277.510277490272 | -40.5102774902724 |
| 58 | 211 | 242.379894497785 | -31.3798944977853 |
| 59 | 180 | 216.278897792701 | -36.2788977927015 |
| 60 | 201 | 185.162133565167 | 15.8378664348326 |
| 61 | 204 | 206.213107998035 | -2.21310799803516 |
| 62 | 188 | 209.205985073648 | -21.2059850736476 |
| 63 | 235 | 193.137733262902 | 41.8622667370985 |
| 64 | 227 | 240.272467654953 | -13.2724676549527 |
| 65 | 234 | 232.229750000131 | 1.77024999986855 |
| 66 | 264 | 239.235447578789 | 24.7645524212112 |
| 67 | 302 | 269.315152696905 | 32.684847303095 |
| 68 | 293 | 307.420349413994 | -14.4203494139945 |
| 69 | 259 | 298.373937282906 | -39.3739372829061 |
| 70 | 229 | 264.247211620013 | -35.2472116200128 |
| 71 | 203 | 234.133767891346 | -31.1337678913456 |
| 72 | 229 | 208.033563348781 | 20.9664366512188 |
| 73 | 242 | 234.101044169001 | 7.89895583099903 |
| 74 | 233 | 247.126467087889 | -14.1264670878891 |
| 75 | 267 | 238.081000821887 | 28.918999178113 |
| 76 | 269 | 272.174077095025 | -3.17407709502481 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.163861275838 | -4.16386127583837 |
| 78 | 315 | 275.150459820033 | 39.8495401799669 |
| 79 | 364 | 320.278716218651 | 43.7212837813494 |
| 80 | 347 | 369.419433887547 | -22.4194338875473 |
| 81 | 312 | 352.347276571893 | -40.3472765718926 |
| 82 | 274 | 317.217418200535 | -43.2174182005346 |
| 83 | 237 | 279.078322231273 | -42.0783222312734 |
| 84 | 278 | 241.942892461071 | 36.0571075389291 |
| 85 | 284 | 283.058942853036 | 0.941057146964226 |
| 86 | 277 | 289.061971660897 | -12.061971660897 |
| 87 | 317 | 282.023150007285 | 34.9768499927147 |
| 88 | 313 | 322.135723572621 | -9.13572357262103 |
| 89 | 318 | 318.106320096473 | -0.106320096473098 |
| 90 | 374 | 323.105977903499 | 50.8940220965011 |
| 91 | 413 | 379.269781148299 | 33.7302188517014 |
| 92 | 405 | 418.378342410862 | -13.3783424108618 |
| 93 | 355 | 410.335283996402 | -55.3352839964023 |
| 94 | 306 | 360.157186477339 | -54.1571864773393 |
| 95 | 271 | 310.982880684463 | -39.9828806844627 |
| 96 | 306 | 275.854195127245 | 30.1458048727554 |
| 97 | 315 | 310.951219894631 | 4.0487801053693 |
| 98 | 301 | 319.964250959801 | -18.9642509598015 |
| 99 | 356 | 305.903214207066 | 50.0967857929339 |
| 100 | 348 | 361.064451533748 | -13.0644515337478 |
| 101 | 355 | 353.022403382224 | 1.97759661777576 |
| 102 | 422 | 360.028768309372 | 61.9712316906281 |
| 103 | 465 | 427.228223734921 | 37.771776265079 |
| 104 | 467 | 470.349792816302 | -3.34979281630223 |
| 105 | 404 | 472.339011453185 | -68.339011453185 |
| 106 | 347 | 409.119061224036 | -62.1190612240361 |
| 107 | 305 | 351.919130006709 | -46.9191300067093 |
| 108 | 336 | 309.76812001729 | 26.2318799827096 |
| 109 | 340 | 340.852547753228 | -0.852547753227952 |
| 110 | 318 | 344.849803814302 | -26.849803814302 |
| 111 | 362 | 322.763387280378 | 39.2366127196217 |
| 112 | 348 | 366.889670961912 | -18.8896709619124 |
| 113 | 363 | 352.828874246123 | 10.1711257538766 |
| 114 | 435 | 367.861610181173 | 67.1383898188272 |
| 115 | 491 | 440.077696189901 | 50.9223038100992 |
| 116 | 505 | 496.24159045986 | 8.75840954014035 |
| 117 | 404 | 510.269779544606 | -106.269779544606 |
| 118 | 359 | 408.927748516275 | -49.9277485162751 |
| 119 | 310 | 363.767055238841 | -53.7670552388406 |
| 120 | 337 | 314.594005089753 | 22.4059949102466 |
| 121 | 360 | 341.666119151839 | 18.3338808481608 |
| 122 | 342 | 364.725127048032 | -22.7251270480319 |
| 123 | 406 | 346.651985853927 | 59.3480141460732 |
| 124 | 396 | 410.842998410787 | -14.8429984107869 |
| 125 | 420 | 400.795225976971 | 19.2047740230293 |
| 126 | 472 | 424.85703685713 | 47.1429631428703 |
| 127 | 548 | 477.008767257168 | 70.9912327428317 |
| 128 | 559 | 553.237253704036 | 5.76274629596446 |
| 129 | 463 | 564.2558011975 | -101.2558011975 |
| 130 | 407 | 467.929907740711 | -60.9299077407109 |
| 131 | 362 | 411.733803833373 | -49.7338038333728 |
| 132 | 405 | 366.573734770081 | 38.426265229919 |
| 133 | 417 | 409.697410334929 | 7.30258966507051 |
| 134 | 391 | 421.720913839532 | -30.7209138395319 |
| 135 | 419 | 395.622038074504 | 23.3779619254958 |
| 136 | 461 | 423.697280428369 | 37.3027195716307 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.81733984309 | 6.18266015691006 |
| 138 | 535 | 476.837238836203 | 58.162761163797 |
| 139 | 622 | 540.024436636901 | 81.975563363099 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.288276332017 | -21.2882763320169 |
| 141 | 508 | 611.219759665506 | -103.219759665506 |
| 142 | 461 | 512.887545176178 | -51.8875451761777 |
| 143 | 390 | 465.720544261052 | -75.7205442610519 |
| 144 | 432 | 394.476836447501 | 37.5231635524992 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 436.597605364789 | 370.101864270587 | 503.093346458991 |
| 146 | 441.195210729578 | 347.004576942856 | 535.385844516301 |
| 147 | 445.792816094368 | 330.247728204287 | 561.337903984449 |
| 148 | 450.390421459157 | 316.756029486476 | 584.024813431838 |
| 149 | 454.988026823946 | 305.340383182678 | 604.635670465215 |
| 150 | 459.585632188735 | 295.391970523466 | 623.779293854005 |
| 151 | 464.183237553525 | 286.549721076488 | 641.816754030561 |
| 152 | 468.780842918314 | 278.578761464602 | 658.982924372025 |
| 153 | 473.378448283103 | 271.316212874989 | 675.440683691217 |
| 154 | 477.976053647892 | 264.643676007995 | 691.30843128779 |
| 155 | 482.573659012682 | 258.471913123628 | 706.675404901735 |
| 156 | 487.171264377471 | 252.731706989412 | 721.61082176553 |
