| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.644861384977089 |
| beta | 0.0138899171733415 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 50 | 37 | 13 |
| 4 | 40 | 43.4996399306352 | -3.49963993063519 |
| 5 | 43 | 39.327952679855 | 3.67204732014502 |
| 6 | 38 | 39.8139003916258 | -1.81390039162581 |
| 7 | 44 | 36.7459250290682 | 7.25407497093177 |
| 8 | 35 | 39.5905120839383 | -4.59051208393826 |
| 9 | 39 | 34.7558647824252 | 4.24413521757479 |
| 10 | 35 | 35.6563553969849 | -0.656355396984942 |
| 11 | 29 | 33.3908298247323 | -4.39082982473234 |
| 12 | 49 | 28.6777569253613 | 20.3222430746387 |
| 13 | 50 | 40.0832182216024 | 9.91678177839765 |
| 14 | 59 | 44.8674246557419 | 14.1325753442581 |
| 15 | 63 | 52.4968200514997 | 10.5031799485003 |
| 16 | 32 | 57.8798362366138 | -25.8798362366138 |
| 17 | 39 | 39.5690426784727 | -0.569042678472705 |
| 18 | 47 | 37.5751055533022 | 9.42489444669783 |
| 19 | 53 | 42.1102920148961 | 10.8897079851039 |
| 20 | 60 | 47.6876200536485 | 12.3123799463515 |
| 21 | 57 | 54.2926571678354 | 2.70734283216461 |
| 22 | 52 | 54.7280266083913 | -2.72802660839127 |
| 23 | 70 | 51.6339010550114 | 18.3660989449886 |
| 24 | 90 | 62.3070689772517 | 27.6929310227483 |
| 25 | 74 | 79.2427983062217 | -5.24279830622173 |
| 26 | 62 | 74.8925874870312 | -12.8925874870312 |
| 27 | 55 | 65.4938431975173 | -10.4938431975173 |
| 28 | 84 | 57.5479623717946 | 26.4520376282054 |
| 29 | 94 | 73.6639862096445 | 20.3360137903555 |
| 30 | 70 | 86.018173568831 | -16.018173568831 |
| 31 | 108 | 74.7854733962955 | 33.2145266037045 |
| 32 | 139 | 95.5985453236976 | 43.4014546763024 |
| 33 | 120 | 123.369523717488 | -3.36952371748829 |
| 34 | 97 | 120.949523143592 | -23.9495231435916 |
| 35 | 126 | 105.043758052334 | 20.9562419476665 |
| 36 | 149 | 118.283693383027 | 30.7163066169735 |
| 37 | 158 | 138.092645679991 | 19.9073543200091 |
| 38 | 124 | 151.109633619142 | -27.1096336191415 |
| 39 | 140 | 133.564358679173 | 6.4356413208267 |
| 40 | 109 | 137.708780694123 | -28.7087806941234 |
| 41 | 114 | 118.932775460816 | -4.93277546081553 |
| 42 | 77 | 115.444814670339 | -38.4448146703386 |
| 43 | 120 | 90.0018809185442 | 29.9981190814558 |
| 44 | 133 | 108.963847507074 | 24.0361524929257 |
| 45 | 110 | 124.296465594007 | -14.2964655940067 |
| 46 | 92 | 114.781804031002 | -22.7818040310019 |
| 47 | 97 | 99.5912171301633 | -2.5912171301633 |
| 48 | 78 | 97.3975503453038 | -19.3975503453038 |
| 49 | 99 | 84.192383006897 | 14.807616993103 |
| 50 | 107 | 93.1774401317972 | 13.8225598682028 |
| 51 | 112 | 101.651081608113 | 10.3489183918875 |
| 52 | 90 | 107.977401830242 | -17.9774018302416 |
| 53 | 98 | 95.8761470939789 | 2.12385290602109 |
| 54 | 125 | 96.7564388284718 | 28.2435611715282 |
| 55 | 155 | 114.733301399336 | 40.2666986006643 |
| 56 | 190 | 140.824092711909 | 49.1759072880912 |
| 57 | 236 | 173.10056078187 | 62.8994392181303 |
| 58 | 189 | 214.790199416141 | -25.7901994161412 |
| 59 | 174 | 199.056310194506 | -25.0563101945055 |
| 60 | 178 | 183.57124663769 | -5.57124663769022 |
| 61 | 136 | 180.60144609954 | -44.6014460995402 |
| 62 | 161 | 152.06307875101 | 8.93692124898965 |
| 63 | 171 | 158.129585760431 | 12.8704142395694 |
| 64 | 149 | 166.847931724601 | -17.8479317246008 |
| 65 | 184 | 155.597337370424 | 28.4026626295764 |
| 66 | 155 | 174.426370019665 | -19.426370019665 |
| 67 | 276 | 162.238303052681 | 113.761696947319 |
| 68 | 224 | 236.957049034752 | -12.9570490347517 |
| 69 | 213 | 229.843711769186 | -16.8437117691863 |
| 70 | 279 | 220.073145463734 | 58.9268545362659 |
| 71 | 268 | 259.691903519697 | 8.30809648030282 |
| 72 | 287 | 266.742995361795 | 20.2570046382049 |
| 73 | 238 | 281.680920100924 | -43.6809201009239 |
| 74 | 213 | 254.996493027673 | -41.9964930276727 |
| 75 | 257 | 229.022122350496 | 27.9778776495039 |
| 76 | 293 | 248.422121103952 | 44.5778788960479 |
| 77 | 212 | 278.926106888235 | -66.9261068882347 |
| 78 | 246 | 236.926016062948 | 9.07398393705208 |
| 79 | 353 | 244.016725386064 | 108.983274613936 |
| 80 | 339 | 316.511249220273 | 22.4887507797273 |
| 81 | 308 | 333.430227964329 | -25.4302279643288 |
| 82 | 247 | 319.220327345645 | -72.220327345645 |
| 83 | 257 | 274.190415820738 | -17.1904158207376 |
| 84 | 322 | 264.493193478044 | 57.5068065219557 |
| 85 | 298 | 303.480417951177 | -5.48041795117678 |
| 86 | 273 | 301.800525120767 | -28.8005251207674 |
| 87 | 312 | 284.82442732832 | 27.1755726716802 |
| 88 | 249 | 304.18856702394 | -55.1885670239401 |
| 89 | 286 | 269.944925597323 | 16.055074402677 |
| 90 | 279 | 281.787363896843 | -2.78736389684269 |
| 91 | 309 | 281.454074721233 | 27.545925278767 |
| 92 | 401 | 300.928283229015 | 100.071716770985 |
| 93 | 309 | 368.067923579816 | -59.067923579816 |
| 94 | 328 | 332.05547945059 | -4.0554794505897 |
| 95 | 353 | 331.482111015218 | 21.5178889847819 |
| 96 | 354 | 347.592757631871 | 6.40724236812872 |
| 97 | 327 | 354.016521869661 | -27.0165218696612 |
| 98 | 324 | 338.644602299267 | -14.6446022992671 |
| 99 | 285 | 331.119683171997 | -46.1196831719972 |
| 100 | 243 | 302.884602513798 | -59.8846025137981 |
| 101 | 241 | 265.236666254713 | -24.2366662547135 |
| 102 | 287 | 250.359617997322 | 36.6403820026778 |
| 103 | 355 | 275.068017903841 | 79.9319820961588 |
| 104 | 460 | 328.409455461357 | 131.590544538643 |
| 105 | 364 | 416.242171021509 | -52.2421710215087 |
| 106 | 487 | 385.060330174621 | 101.939669825379 |
| 107 | 452 | 454.217485637917 | -2.2174856379167 |
| 108 | 391 | 456.187851397077 | -65.1878513970768 |
| 109 | 500 | 416.967167652262 | 83.0328323477376 |
| 110 | 451 | 474.072010302784 | -23.0720103027837 |
| 111 | 375 | 462.547279529313 | -87.5472795293135 |
| 112 | 372 | 408.660770127299 | -36.6607701272994 |
| 113 | 302 | 387.260632525702 | -85.2606325257016 |
| 114 | 316 | 333.7566347899 | -17.7566347899002 |
| 115 | 398 | 323.624311082958 | 74.3756889170425 |
| 116 | 394 | 373.570753585916 | 20.4292464140842 |
| 117 | 431 | 388.912204677046 | 42.0877953229539 |
| 118 | 431 | 418.597400994581 | 12.4025990054188 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 119 | 429.250851464148 | 351.749585805903 | 506.752117122393 |
| 120 | 431.906344761765 | 339.310053130275 | 524.502636393255 |
| 121 | 434.561838059382 | 328.672588159493 | 540.451087959271 |
| 122 | 437.217331356999 | 319.222458485999 | 555.212204227999 |
| 123 | 439.872824654616 | 310.621877477458 | 569.123771831774 |
| 124 | 442.528317952233 | 302.662135494678 | 582.394500409788 |
| 125 | 445.18381124985 | 295.203883409962 | 595.163739089738 |
| 126 | 447.839304547467 | 288.148790086344 | 607.529819008591 |
| 127 | 450.494797845084 | 281.424523281243 | 619.565072408926 |
| 128 | 453.150291142701 | 274.976122040098 | 631.324460245305 |
| 129 | 455.805784440318 | 268.760724159029 | 642.850844721608 |
| 130 | 458.461277737935 | 262.744181791723 | 654.178373684148 |
