| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.11399538654434 |
| beta | 0.00965850494570268 |
| gamma | 0.391350432513914 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 124 | 122.951388888889 | 1.04861111111114 |
| 14 | 152 | 150.992534810343 | 1.00746518965721 |
| 15 | 134 | 132.821766197608 | 1.1782338023923 |
| 16 | 119 | 117.880095017102 | 1.11990498289779 |
| 17 | 131 | 129.974674330327 | 1.02532566967253 |
| 18 | 133 | 132.142934280716 | 0.85706571928381 |
| 19 | 131 | 133.084623690475 | -2.0846236904747 |
| 20 | 134 | 128.147012189399 | 5.85298781060092 |
| 21 | 136 | 133.829029398892 | 2.17097060110751 |
| 22 | 122 | 122.177037259577 | -0.177037259576508 |
| 23 | 131 | 130.340521467456 | 0.659478532543517 |
| 24 | 138 | 140.433424052097 | -2.43342405209734 |
| 25 | 131 | 127.617997705826 | 3.3820022941741 |
| 26 | 166 | 155.924699647689 | 10.0753003523112 |
| 27 | 134 | 138.870645396162 | -4.87064539616247 |
| 28 | 121 | 123.236356061138 | -2.23635606113764 |
| 29 | 140 | 134.928998505692 | 5.07100149430772 |
| 30 | 137 | 137.518014734136 | -0.518014734135903 |
| 31 | 134 | 137.299351032176 | -3.29935103217613 |
| 32 | 141 | 134.990598669073 | 6.00940133092709 |
| 33 | 139 | 139.428980790049 | -0.428980790049138 |
| 34 | 129 | 126.678830185878 | 2.32116981412224 |
| 35 | 136 | 135.432269343874 | 0.567730656126258 |
| 36 | 140 | 144.457303142767 | -4.45730314276742 |
| 37 | 133 | 133.44038435319 | -0.440384353189643 |
| 38 | 171 | 163.640755479399 | 7.35924452060104 |
| 39 | 136 | 141.100342209864 | -5.10034220986449 |
| 40 | 121 | 126.358615039778 | -5.35861503977773 |
| 41 | 143 | 140.230974899626 | 2.76902510037414 |
| 42 | 143 | 140.619015864042 | 2.38098413595813 |
| 43 | 143 | 139.768986088173 | 3.23101391182669 |
| 44 | 143 | 141.442113377951 | 1.55788662204893 |
| 45 | 147 | 143.145455844086 | 3.854544155914 |
| 46 | 133 | 131.846752187727 | 1.15324781227349 |
| 47 | 140 | 139.867345573091 | 0.132654426909056 |
| 48 | 144 | 147.108208479618 | -3.10820847961776 |
| 49 | 143 | 137.647182602067 | 5.35281739793328 |
| 50 | 172 | 171.228043226818 | 0.771956773181614 |
| 51 | 145 | 143.624902252584 | 1.37509774741562 |
| 52 | 127 | 129.547330394717 | -2.54733039471665 |
| 53 | 153 | 146.576961172602 | 6.4230388273981 |
| 54 | 149 | 147.2696507498 | 1.73034925020008 |
| 55 | 145 | 146.662129668641 | -1.66212966864106 |
| 56 | 154 | 147.213876598097 | 6.78612340190267 |
| 57 | 149 | 150.331862186072 | -1.33186218607156 |
| 58 | 141 | 137.521888045675 | 3.47811195432507 |
| 59 | 149 | 145.472784930363 | 3.52721506963707 |
| 60 | 150 | 151.999776844253 | -1.99977684425298 |
| 61 | 145 | 145.622985116503 | -0.622985116502804 |
| 62 | 175 | 176.951808965751 | -1.95180896575147 |
| 63 | 152 | 149.261841314082 | 2.73815868591765 |
| 64 | 139 | 133.995634839054 | 5.0043651609457 |
| 65 | 153 | 155.020847895223 | -2.020847895223 |
| 66 | 157 | 153.138894609192 | 3.86110539080789 |
| 67 | 161 | 151.615369999965 | 9.38463000003483 |
| 68 | 159 | 156.385294575362 | 2.61470542463803 |
| 69 | 155 | 156.237913688124 | -1.23791368812414 |
| 70 | 146 | 145.131527244662 | 0.868472755337649 |
| 71 | 162 | 152.824165751816 | 9.17583424818363 |
| 72 | 156 | 158.107076267089 | -2.1070762670887 |
| 73 | 141 | 152.223742960846 | -11.2237429608461 |
| 74 | 186 | 181.900007168191 | 4.09999283180861 |
| 75 | 159 | 156.549403498034 | 2.45059650196563 |
| 76 | 140 | 142.059175341276 | -2.05917534127556 |
| 77 | 159 | 159.858468405688 | -0.858468405688114 |
| 78 | 158 | 160.165000635197 | -2.16500063519658 |
| 79 | 157 | 159.87959151707 | -2.8795915170702 |
| 80 | 153 | 160.900402449983 | -7.90040244998266 |
| 81 | 161 | 158.203262913034 | 2.796737086966 |
| 82 | 142 | 148.276380821481 | -6.27638082148141 |
| 83 | 152 | 158.016360574935 | -6.01636057493451 |
| 84 | 162 | 157.61982818313 | 4.38017181686951 |
| 85 | 146 | 149.286670741969 | -3.28667074196889 |
| 86 | 190 | 185.16154632497 | 4.83845367503011 |
| 87 | 154 | 159.304523822189 | -5.30452382218897 |
| 88 | 132 | 142.339307472581 | -10.3393074725813 |
| 89 | 155 | 159.574688427074 | -4.57468842707351 |
| 90 | 155 | 158.96412600319 | -3.96412600318996 |
| 91 | 150 | 158.183430025591 | -8.18343002559126 |
| 92 | 163 | 156.810461939832 | 6.1895380601681 |
| 93 | 160 | 159.395873344375 | 0.604126655624526 |
| 94 | 149 | 146.037887153419 | 2.96211284658108 |
| 95 | 171 | 156.896184102368 | 14.103815897632 |
| 96 | 176 | 162.395300235491 | 13.6046997645088 |
| 97 | 156 | 152.462630371669 | 3.53736962833113 |
| 98 | 198 | 191.947542065991 | 6.05245793400866 |
| 99 | 157 | 162.728123693276 | -5.72812369327639 |
| 100 | 139 | 143.984572156592 | -4.98457215659207 |
| 101 | 160 | 163.850783584317 | -3.85078358431656 |
| 102 | 167 | 163.556846588412 | 3.44315341158784 |
| 103 | 162 | 162.188105880241 | -0.188105880240528 |
| 104 | 159 | 166.749583115633 | -7.74958311563327 |
| 105 | 169 | 165.833332597953 | 3.16666740204721 |
| 106 | 153 | 153.611899324267 | -0.611899324267313 |
| 107 | 161 | 167.948926344231 | -6.9489263442305 |
| 108 | 169 | 170.874780639178 | -1.87478063917774 |
| 109 | 156 | 155.669465630558 | 0.330534369442347 |
| 110 | 205 | 195.640032539529 | 9.35996746047104 |
| 111 | 167 | 162.69566015588 | 4.30433984411977 |
| 112 | 150 | 145.347410833985 | 4.65258916601468 |
| 113 | 174 | 166.709782725216 | 7.29021727478428 |
| 114 | 163 | 170.23166280506 | -7.23166280505995 |
| 115 | 163 | 166.391899568373 | -3.39189956837268 |
| 116 | 168 | 167.967731875397 | 0.0322681246025525 |
| 117 | 168 | 171.733652982087 | -3.73365298208722 |
| 118 | 156 | 157.417838294134 | -1.41783829413356 |
| 119 | 170 | 169.46721176205 | 0.5327882379502 |
| 120 | 177 | 175.015094832558 | 1.98490516744235 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 161.028430193528 | 151.768523558998 | 170.288336828058 |
| 122 | 204.105800802489 | 194.784762115473 | 213.426839489504 |
| 123 | 168.344782999419 | 158.961846913122 | 177.727719085717 |
| 124 | 150.62519833849 | 141.179603547465 | 160.070793129515 |
| 125 | 172.365228740327 | 162.856218057464 | 181.87423942319 |
| 126 | 170.00620467945 | 160.433025107167 | 179.579384251732 |
| 127 | 168.315611657689 | 158.67751445351 | 177.953708861868 |
| 128 | 171.462530563862 | 161.758771300523 | 181.166289827202 |
| 129 | 173.916084336045 | 164.145922956314 | 183.686245715776 |
| 130 | 160.830081452799 | 150.992782319169 | 170.667380586429 |
| 131 | 173.720210894104 | 163.815042833523 | 183.625378954686 |
| 132 | 179.713048532805 | 169.739284876621 | 189.686812188989 |
