| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.120576301406814 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 150 | 127 | 23 |
| 3 | 130 | 129.773254932357 | 0.226745067643265 |
| 4 | 119 | 129.800595013975 | -10.8005950139754 |
| 5 | 129 | 128.498299214197 | 0.501700785802626 |
| 6 | 129 | 128.558792439362 | 0.44120756063765 |
| 7 | 131 | 128.611991615177 | 2.38800838482325 |
| 8 | 126 | 128.899928833947 | -2.8999288339472 |
| 9 | 131 | 128.550266140807 | 2.44973385919312 |
| 10 | 119 | 128.845645988979 | -9.84564598897944 |
| 11 | 127 | 127.658494410667 | -0.658494410667473 |
| 12 | 137 | 127.579095590132 | 9.42090440986787 |
| 13 | 124 | 128.715033399781 | -4.71503339978113 |
| 14 | 152 | 128.146512111426 | 23.8534878885741 |
| 15 | 134 | 131.022677456682 | 2.97732254331757 |
| 16 | 119 | 131.381671997051 | -12.3816719970508 |
| 17 | 131 | 129.888735782414 | 1.1112642175859 |
| 18 | 133 | 130.022727911656 | 2.97727208834365 |
| 19 | 131 | 130.381716368351 | 0.618283631649433 |
| 20 | 134 | 130.456266721875 | 3.54373327812476 |
| 21 | 136 | 130.883556973724 | 5.11644302627624 |
| 22 | 122 | 131.500478750191 | -9.50047875019084 |
| 23 | 131 | 130.354946160899 | 0.645053839101195 |
| 24 | 138 | 130.432724367026 | 7.56727563297412 |
| 25 | 131 | 131.345158474576 | -0.345158474575811 |
| 26 | 166 | 131.303540542312 | 34.6964594576878 |
| 27 | 134 | 135.487111295632 | -1.48711129563171 |
| 28 | 121 | 135.307800915824 | -14.3078009158241 |
| 29 | 140 | 133.582619200129 | 6.41738079987095 |
| 30 | 137 | 134.356403241697 | 2.6435967583034 |
| 31 | 134 | 134.675158361224 | -0.675158361223879 |
| 32 | 141 | 134.593750263164 | 6.40624973683637 |
| 33 | 139 | 135.36619216232 | 3.63380783768028 |
| 34 | 129 | 135.80434327141 | -6.80434327141029 |
| 35 | 136 | 134.983900726241 | 1.0160992737587 |
| 36 | 140 | 135.106418218533 | 4.89358178146674 |
| 37 | 133 | 135.696468210374 | -2.69646821037429 |
| 38 | 171 | 135.371338046706 | 35.6286619532937 |
| 39 | 136 | 139.667310329108 | -3.66731032910815 |
| 40 | 121 | 139.225119613513 | -18.2251196135133 |
| 41 | 143 | 137.027602097819 | 5.97239790218094 |
| 42 | 143 | 137.747731747394 | 5.25226825260614 |
| 43 | 143 | 138.38103082729 | 4.61896917271045 |
| 44 | 143 | 138.937969046447 | 4.06203095355292 |
| 45 | 147 | 139.427753715026 | 7.57224628497352 |
| 46 | 133 | 140.34078716541 | -7.34078716541009 |
| 47 | 140 | 139.45566219959 | 0.544337800409664 |
| 48 | 144 | 139.52129643828 | 4.47870356172035 |
| 49 | 143 | 140.061321948849 | 2.93867805115059 |
| 50 | 172 | 140.415656879283 | 31.5843431207175 |
| 51 | 145 | 144.223980155142 | 0.776019844857615 |
| 52 | 127 | 144.317549757854 | -17.3175497578536 |
| 53 | 153 | 142.229463658623 | 10.7705363413768 |
| 54 | 149 | 143.528135094834 | 5.47186490516594 |
| 55 | 145 | 144.187912326897 | 0.812087673103292 |
| 56 | 154 | 144.285830854938 | 9.71416914506244 |
| 57 | 149 | 145.457129441689 | 3.54287055831063 |
| 58 | 141 | 145.884315669974 | -4.88431566997357 |
| 59 | 149 | 145.295382951585 | 3.70461704841517 |
| 60 | 150 | 145.742071973411 | 4.25792802658864 |
| 61 | 145 | 146.255477186514 | -1.25547718651384 |
| 62 | 175 | 146.104096390863 | 28.8959036091366 |
| 63 | 152 | 149.588257573861 | 2.41174242613914 |
| 64 | 139 | 149.879056555551 | -10.8790565555506 |
| 65 | 153 | 148.567300153287 | 4.43269984671323 |
| 66 | 157 | 149.10177870605 | 7.89822129395 |
| 67 | 161 | 150.054117017367 | 10.945882982633 |
| 68 | 159 | 151.373931103045 | 7.6260688969553 |
| 69 | 155 | 152.293454284913 | 2.70654571508689 |
| 70 | 146 | 152.619799556827 | -6.61979955682673 |
| 71 | 162 | 151.82160861021 | 10.1783913897899 |
| 72 | 156 | 153.048881398262 | 2.95111860173807 |
| 73 | 141 | 153.404716364272 | -12.4047163642724 |
| 74 | 186 | 151.909001545068 | 34.0909984549322 |
| 75 | 159 | 156.019568050029 | 2.98043194997106 |
| 76 | 140 | 156.378937511151 | -16.3789375111512 |
| 77 | 159 | 154.404025805083 | 4.59597419491678 |
| 78 | 158 | 154.958191374867 | 3.04180862513255 |
| 79 | 157 | 155.324961408473 | 1.67503859152671 |
| 80 | 153 | 155.526931366553 | -2.52693136655324 |
| 81 | 161 | 155.222243328465 | 5.7777566715346 |
| 82 | 142 | 155.918903858348 | -13.9189038583476 |
| 83 | 152 | 154.240613911471 | -2.240613911471 |
| 84 | 162 | 153.970448973145 | 8.02955102685482 |
| 85 | 146 | 154.938622537921 | -8.93862253792062 |
| 86 | 190 | 153.860836492627 | 36.1391635073734 |
| 87 | 154 | 158.218363164282 | -4.21836316428175 |
| 88 | 132 | 157.709728535942 | -25.7097285359419 |
| 89 | 155 | 154.609744558905 | 0.390255441095206 |
| 90 | 155 | 154.656800116596 | 0.343199883404054 |
| 91 | 150 | 154.69818188918 | -4.69818188918006 |
| 92 | 163 | 154.131692493646 | 8.86830750635374 |
| 93 | 160 | 155.201000212501 | 4.79899978749933 |
| 94 | 149 | 155.779645857329 | -6.77964585732943 |
| 95 | 171 | 154.962181235005 | 16.0378187649954 |
| 96 | 176 | 156.895962104321 | 19.1040378956795 |
| 97 | 156 | 159.199456335717 | -3.1994563357172 |
| 98 | 198 | 158.813677724244 | 39.1863222757562 |
| 99 | 157 | 163.53861952999 | -6.53861952998997 |
| 100 | 139 | 162.750216970757 | -23.7502169707574 |
| 101 | 160 | 159.886503650814 | 0.11349634918588 |
| 102 | 167 | 159.900188620822 | 7.09981137917788 |
| 103 | 162 | 160.756257617609 | 1.24374238239059 |
| 104 | 159 | 160.906223473981 | -1.90622347398096 |
| 105 | 169 | 160.676378097833 | 8.32362190216651 |
| 106 | 153 | 161.680009641105 | -8.68000964110547 |
| 107 | 161 | 160.633406182405 | 0.36659381759452 |
| 108 | 169 | 160.67760870905 | 8.32239129095038 |
| 109 | 156 | 161.681091869773 | -5.6810918697727 |
| 110 | 205 | 160.996086824163 | 44.0039131758368 |
| 111 | 167 | 166.301915922332 | 0.698084077667829 |
| 112 | 150 | 166.386088318488 | -16.3860883184883 |
| 113 | 174 | 164.41031439452 | 9.58968560548038 |
| 114 | 163 | 165.566603216483 | -2.5666032164826 |
| 115 | 163 | 165.25713169346 | -2.25713169346031 |
| 116 | 168 | 164.984975102075 | 3.01502489792523 |
| 117 | 168 | 165.348515652916 | 2.65148434708394 |
| 118 | 156 | 165.668221828726 | -9.66822182872551 |
| 119 | 170 | 164.502463399437 | 5.49753660056285 |
| 120 | 177 | 165.165336029582 | 11.8346639704184 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 166.592316039527 | 142.95217742294 | 190.232454656115 |
| 122 | 166.592316039527 | 142.780949746587 | 190.403682332467 |
| 123 | 166.592316039527 | 142.610944609569 | 190.573687469485 |
| 124 | 166.592316039527 | 142.442136193681 | 190.742495885373 |
| 125 | 166.592316039527 | 142.274499576864 | 190.91013250219 |
| 126 | 166.592316039527 | 142.108010690246 | 191.076621388809 |
| 127 | 166.592316039527 | 141.942646277806 | 191.241985801249 |
| 128 | 166.592316039527 | 141.778383858452 | 191.406248220603 |
| 129 | 166.592316039527 | 141.615201690346 | 191.569430388709 |
| 130 | 166.592316039527 | 141.45307873731 | 191.731553341744 |
| 131 | 166.592316039527 | 141.291994637177 | 191.892637441878 |
| 132 | 166.592316039527 | 141.13192967193 | 192.052702407124 |
