Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 1.4761 | 1.4761 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 1.4721 | 1.4724045410594 | -0.000206739420129031 | -0.00020673941968499 | -0.0466025083844365 |
3 | 1.487 | 1.48609280062215 | -9.31209884382086e-05 | -9.31209884382082e-05 | 0.288702645608972 |
4 | 1.5167 | 1.5145806254718 | 4.89270661498418e-05 | 4.89270661498418e-05 | 0.594932165727773 |
5 | 1.5812 | 1.57638398642462 | 0.000341278584618803 | 0.000341278584618806 | 1.28549672018168 |
6 | 1.554 | 1.55531102335701 | 0.000240683603076687 | 0.000240683603076687 | -0.445761283141193 |
7 | 1.5508 | 1.55091683338045 | 0.00021901717562317 | 0.00021901717562317 | -0.096479166349625 |
8 | 1.5764 | 1.57438790956487 | 0.000327205247080116 | 0.000327205247080115 | 0.484008568984297 |
9 | 1.5611 | 1.56177071914382 | 0.000267256056910901 | 0.000267256056910902 | -0.269444567407082 |
10 | 1.4735 | 1.47958737066018 | -0.000112835882574426 | -0.000112835882574429 | -1.71623814783716 |
11 | 1.4303 | 1.43392264882751 | -0.000321863517736719 | -0.000321863517736718 | -0.948169890073508 |
12 | 1.2757 | 1.2872920312921 | -0.000990175630650501 | -0.000990175630650504 | -3.04541326760041 |
13 | 1.2727 | 1.27084098293654 | -0.000271226788796847 | 0.00298349467568372 | -0.391029578536177 |
14 | 1.3917 | 1.38327820244627 | 0.00257697102842638 | 0.002576970992613 | 1.98474180607014 |
15 | 1.2816 | 1.28656902794678 | 0.00220553625912391 | 0.00220553625912391 | -2.06278975577745 |
16 | 1.2644 | 1.26404327834364 | 0.00214889136101771 | 0.00214889136101771 | -0.514249767960543 |
17 | 1.3308 | 1.32431175851775 | 0.00227607282335838 | 0.00227607282335838 | 1.20852713701535 |
18 | 1.3275 | 1.32531867206598 | 0.00227330991662166 | 0.00227330991662166 | -0.0263906167836692 |
19 | 1.4098 | 1.40197430374176 | 0.00243485259668687 | 0.00243485259668687 | 1.54668649973825 |
20 | 1.4134 | 1.41050978502971 | 0.00244807297905241 | 0.0024480729790524 | 0.126854619633883 |
21 | 1.4138 | 1.41146346439588 | 0.00244484155537592 | 0.00244484155537591 | -0.0310739046836975 |
22 | 1.4272 | 1.42400185120175 | 0.00246662038402942 | 0.00246662038402942 | 0.209881276314507 |
23 | 1.4643 | 1.45937744999487 | 0.00253747515776585 | 0.00253747515776584 | 0.684295213566435 |
24 | 1.48 | 1.47638287775958 | 0.00256855850201497 | 0.00256855850201497 | 0.300839821284495 |
25 | 1.5023 | 1.51824395496209 | 0.00170878529559331 | -0.018796638207442 | 0.904001702632701 |
26 | 1.4406 | 1.44458109648105 | 0.000475927760335762 | 0.00047592773453355 | -1.41623757476315 |
27 | 1.3966 | 1.39952818213479 | 0.000365391116644694 | 0.000365391116644691 | -0.9458899283601 |
28 | 1.357 | 1.35961375071357 | 0.00030544390765049 | 0.000305443907650481 | -0.837289825188133 |
29 | 1.3479 | 1.34844268625306 | 0.000289112449261868 | 0.000289112449261871 | -0.238562646565834 |
30 | 1.3315 | 1.33241651370195 | 0.000265997638651625 | 0.000265997638651623 | -0.339146414820465 |
31 | 1.2307 | 1.23746959366882 | 0.000131322150466422 | 0.00013132215046642 | -1.9791927264113 |
32 | 1.2271 | 1.22770025028596 | 0.000117337962409574 | 0.000117337962409571 | -0.205805147369037 |
33 | 1.3028 | 1.29753154936091 | 0.000215666422407993 | 0.000215666422407975 | 1.44914296848944 |
34 | 1.268 | 1.26984588685693 | 0.000176368262297135 | 0.000176368262297131 | -0.579983975805906 |
35 | 1.3648 | 1.35811488089932 | 0.000300269493544125 | 0.000300269493544115 | 1.83117686850439 |
36 | 1.3857 | 1.38354318713586 | 0.000335562139898078 | 0.000335562139898075 | 0.522334763240957 |
37 | 1.2998 | 1.31851956668792 | 0.00127063764909711 | -0.0139770140999771 | -1.45481156943281 |
38 | 1.3362 | 1.33387697481442 | 0.00144097424803671 | 0.00144097420510033 | 0.272272597522506 |
39 | 1.3692 | 1.3655188640695 | 0.00149524618539898 | 0.00149524618539898 | 0.627433908536554 |
40 | 1.3834 | 1.38088421148414 | 0.00151053440751776 | 0.00151053440751775 | 0.288270958319391 |
41 | 1.4207 | 1.41666910918898 | 0.00154667101794875 | 0.00154667101794875 | 0.712350917201053 |
42 | 1.486 | 1.47991643390345 | 0.00161146104462403 | 0.00161146104462402 | 1.28237296633739 |
43 | 1.4385 | 1.4399460307611 | 0.0015678518153821 | 0.0015678518153821 | -0.864228041441891 |
44 | 1.4453 | 1.44358021423021 | 0.00157001659303515 | 0.00157001659303514 | 0.0429461487309452 |
45 | 1.426 | 1.42584913969804 | 0.00154981712284304 | 0.00154981712284302 | -0.401149128521285 |
46 | 1.445 | 1.44235082900005 | 0.0015654485774802 | 0.0015654485774802 | 0.310755886961475 |
47 | 1.3503 | 1.35525349019417 | 0.00147285275341856 | 0.00147285275341855 | -1.84274383545704 |
48 | 1.4001 | 1.39575742594551 | 0.00151357270935329 | 0.00151357270935328 | 0.811211289894281 |
49 | 1.3418 | 1.36463255890676 | 0.00186044541602547 | -0.0204648995368184 | -0.71433693938531 |
50 | 1.2939 | 1.29718550479645 | 0.0011957113151568 | 0.00119571128804556 | -1.36096383589569 |
51 | 1.3176 | 1.31516517999874 | 0.001219652200636 | 0.001219652200636 | 0.348689421370156 |
52 | 1.3443 | 1.34125596104856 | 0.00124142009148346 | 0.00124142009148345 | 0.516865258215939 |
53 | 1.3356 | 1.33491454563865 | 0.00123507041891554 | 0.00123507041891555 | -0.15758546475578 |
54 | 1.3214 | 1.32125681027254 | 0.00122264729800622 | 0.00122264729800621 | -0.309500303345598 |
55 | 1.2403 | 1.24477431574471 | 0.00115789522445165 | 0.00115789522445166 | -1.61485745301208 |
56 | 1.259 | 1.2570285806944 | 0.00116713405783597 | 0.00116713405783596 | 0.23060314479037 |
57 | 1.2284 | 1.22934781362812 | 0.00114313530950493 | 0.00114313530950491 | -0.599512716056618 |
58 | 1.2611 | 1.2579441840771 | 0.00116595484138919 | 0.00116595484138918 | 0.570528810081816 |
59 | 1.293 | 1.28959884576951 | 0.00119127645409785 | 0.00119127645409785 | 0.633611318406749 |
60 | 1.2993 | 1.29760883240951 | 0.00119693485933451 | 0.0011969348593345 | 0.14170527795524 |
61 | 1.2986 | 1.30992568440114 | 0.00110292900084819 | -0.0121322189854147 | 0.240895604567086 |