Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933722744407 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 73.97 | 73.97 | 0 |
3 | 73.97 | 73.97 | 0 |
4 | 73.97 | 73.97 | 0 |
5 | 73.97 | 73.97 | 0 |
6 | 73.97 | 73.97 | 0 |
7 | 73.96 | 73.97 | -0.0100000000000051 |
8 | 74.44 | 73.9600006627725 | 0.479999337227454 |
9 | 75.43 | 74.4399681869612 | 0.990031813038769 |
10 | 75.77 | 75.4299343834085 | 0.340065616591502 |
11 | 75.82 | 75.7699774613842 | 0.0500225386157922 |
12 | 75.85 | 75.8199966846434 | 0.0300033153565806 |
13 | 75.85 | 75.8499980114626 | 1.98853740585037e-06 |
14 | 75.85 | 75.8499999998682 | 1.31791466628783e-10 |
15 | 77.95 | 75.85 | 2.10000000000002 |
16 | 82.07 | 77.9498608177633 | 4.12013918223674 |
17 | 84.82 | 82.0697269284823 | 2.75027307151765 |
18 | 85.08 | 84.8198177194487 | 0.260182280551319 |
19 | 85.34 | 85.0799827558325 | 0.260017244167514 |
20 | 85.65 | 85.3399827667706 | 0.31001723322936 |
21 | 85.65 | 85.6499794529086 | 2.05470914096395e-05 |
22 | 85.72 | 85.6499999986382 | 0.070000001361791 |
23 | 85.73 | 85.719995360592 | 0.0100046394079811 |
24 | 85.73 | 85.72999933692 | 6.63080044205344e-07 |
25 | 85.73 | 85.729999999956 | 4.39541736341198e-11 |
26 | 85.73 | 85.73 | 0 |
27 | 85.74 | 85.73 | 0.00999999999999091 |
28 | 86.32 | 85.7399993372274 | 0.580000662772548 |
29 | 87.59 | 86.3199615591478 | 1.27003844085218 |
30 | 87.81 | 87.5899158253376 | 0.220084174662361 |
31 | 87.87 | 87.8099854134249 | 0.0600145865750932 |
32 | 87.94 | 87.8699960223979 | 0.0700039776020844 |
33 | 87.96 | 87.9399953603285 | 0.0200046396715123 |
34 | 88.01 | 87.9599986741474 | 0.0500013258526337 |
35 | 88.01 | 88.0099966860493 | 3.31395065700235e-06 |
36 | 88.01 | 88.0099999997804 | 2.19642970478162e-10 |
37 | 88.01 | 88.01 | 1.4210854715202e-14 |
38 | 88.01 | 88.01 | 0 |
39 | 88.59 | 88.01 | 0.579999999999998 |
40 | 89.43 | 88.5899615591918 | 0.840038440808243 |
41 | 89.63 | 89.4299443245576 | 0.200055675442442 |
42 | 89.73 | 89.6299867408589 | 0.100013259141136 |
43 | 89.88 | 89.7299933713957 | 0.150006628604331 |
44 | 89.89 | 89.8799900579723 | 0.0100099420276649 |
45 | 89.9 | 89.8899993365685 | 0.010000663431498 |
46 | 89.91 | 89.8999993371835 | 0.0100006628165232 |
47 | 89.86 | 89.9099993371835 | -0.0499993371835075 |
48 | 90.07 | 89.8600033138189 | 0.209996686181142 |
49 | 90.17 | 90.0699860819959 | 0.100013918004052 |
50 | 90.17 | 90.169993371352 | 6.62864800915486e-06 |
51 | 90.28 | 90.1699999995607 | 0.110000000439328 |
52 | 90.87 | 90.2799927095019 | 0.59000729049815 |
53 | 92.05 | 90.869960895936 | 1.18003910406398 |
54 | 92.1 | 92.0499217902467 | 0.050078209753309 |
55 | 92.16 | 92.0999966809537 | 0.0600033190463165 |
56 | 92.22 | 92.1599960231447 | 0.0600039768553131 |
57 | 92.25 | 92.2199960231011 | 0.0300039768989109 |
58 | 92.29 | 92.2499980114188 | 0.0400019885812526 |
59 | 92.29 | 92.289997348778 | 2.6512220188124e-06 |
60 | 92.29 | 92.2899999998243 | 1.75717218553473e-10 |
61 | 92.29 | 92.29 | 1.4210854715202e-14 |
62 | 92.29 | 92.29 | 0 |
63 | 91.95 | 92.29 | -0.340000000000003 |
64 | 91.82 | 91.9500225342669 | -0.130022534266914 |
65 | 92.16 | 91.8200086175367 | 0.339991382463268 |
66 | 92.31 | 92.1599774663042 | 0.150022533695761 |
67 | 92.33 | 92.3099900569182 | 0.0200099430818028 |
68 | 92.4 | 92.3299986737959 | 0.070001326204121 |
69 | 92.54 | 92.3999953605042 | 0.140004639495785 |
70 | 92.49 | 92.5399907208767 | -0.0499907208767354 |
71 | 92.54 | 92.4900033132478 | 0.0499966867522232 |
72 | 92.58 | 92.5399966863568 | 0.040003313643183 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 92.5799973486902 | 91.2781124520396 | 93.8818822453407 |
74 | 92.5799973486902 | 90.7389150831491 | 94.4210796142312 |
75 | 92.5799973486902 | 90.3251661947337 | 94.8348285026467 |
76 | 92.5799973486902 | 89.9763569823539 | 95.1836377150264 |
77 | 92.5799973486902 | 89.6690485718171 | 95.4909461255632 |
78 | 92.5799973486902 | 89.3912197763371 | 95.7687749210432 |
79 | 92.5799973486902 | 89.1357293523947 | 96.0242653449856 |
80 | 92.5799973486902 | 88.8979243381881 | 96.2620703591923 |
81 | 92.5799973486902 | 88.6745727521794 | 96.4854219452009 |
82 | 92.5799973486902 | 88.4633213955219 | 96.6966733018584 |
83 | 92.5799973486902 | 88.2623937856292 | 96.8976009117512 |
84 | 92.5799973486902 | 88.0704097675338 | 97.0895849298466 |