Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999920025746041 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 1.82 | 1.94 | -0.12 |
3 | 1.8 | 1.82000959691048 | -0.0200095969104752 |
4 | 1.79 | 1.80000160025258 | -0.0100016002525849 |
5 | 1.79 | 1.79000079987052 | -7.99870518708445e-07 |
6 | 1.78 | 1.79000000006397 | -0.0100000000639691 |
7 | 1.81 | 1.78000079974254 | 0.0299992002574554 |
8 | 1.84 | 1.80999760083634 | 0.03000239916366 |
9 | 1.87 | 1.83999760058051 | 0.0300023994194902 |
10 | 1.87 | 1.86999760058049 | 2.39941951063471e-06 |
11 | 1.87 | 1.86999999980811 | 1.91891835754632e-10 |
12 | 1.84 | 1.86999999999998 | -0.0299999999999847 |
13 | 1.82 | 1.84000239922762 | -0.0200023992276188 |
14 | 1.83 | 1.82000159967696 | 0.00999840032304444 |
15 | 1.83 | 1.82999920038539 | 7.9961460652811e-07 |
16 | 1.82 | 1.82999999993605 | -0.00999999993605138 |
17 | 1.83 | 1.82000079974253 | 0.00999920025746559 |
18 | 1.87 | 1.82999920032142 | 0.0400007996785807 |
19 | 1.88 | 1.86999680096589 | 0.0100031990341118 |
20 | 1.9 | 1.87999920000162 | 0.02000079999838 |
21 | 1.98 | 1.89999840045094 | 0.0800015995490586 |
22 | 2.03 | 1.97999360193176 | 0.0500063980682393 |
23 | 2.14 | 2.02999600077562 | 0.110003999224379 |
24 | 2.42 | 2.13999120251223 | 0.28000879748777 |
25 | 2.73 | 2.41997760650532 | 0.310022393494681 |
26 | 2.84 | 2.72997520619037 | 0.11002479380963 |
27 | 2.85 | 2.8399912008492 | 0.010008799150802 |
28 | 2.94 | 2.84999919955375 | 0.0900008004462451 |
29 | 3.06 | 2.93999280225313 | 0.120007197746872 |
30 | 3.24 | 3.05999040251389 | 0.18000959748611 |
31 | 3.18 | 3.23998560386674 | -0.0599856038667355 |
32 | 3.01 | 3.18000479730392 | -0.170004797303918 |
33 | 2.87 | 3.01001359600683 | -0.140013596006833 |
34 | 2.73 | 2.87001119748289 | -0.140011197482885 |
35 | 2.63 | 2.73001119729106 | -0.100011197291065 |
36 | 2.39 | 2.63000799832089 | -0.240007998320891 |
37 | 2.26 | 2.39001919446061 | -0.13001919446061 |
38 | 2.11 | 2.26001039818808 | -0.150010398188077 |
39 | 2.01 | 2.11001199696968 | -0.100011996969681 |
40 | 1.99 | 2.01000799838484 | -0.0200079983848445 |
41 | 1.96 | 1.99000160012474 | -0.0300016001247441 |
42 | 1.93 | 1.96000239935559 | -0.0300023993555876 |
43 | 1.98 | 1.93000239941951 | 0.0499976005804945 |
44 | 2.07 | 1.97999600147919 | 0.0900039985208061 |
45 | 2.24 | 2.06999280199737 | 0.170007198002635 |
46 | 2.31 | 2.23998640380117 | 0.070013596198828 |
47 | 2.23 | 2.30999440071488 | -0.079994400714877 |
48 | 2.26 | 2.23000639749252 | 0.0299936025074818 |
49 | 2.28 | 2.25999760128402 | 0.0200023987159841 |
50 | 2.3 | 2.27999840032309 | 0.0200015996769145 |
51 | 2.33 | 2.29999840038699 | 0.0300015996130125 |
52 | 2.26 | 2.32999760064445 | -0.0699976006444536 |
53 | 2.24 | 2.26000559800589 | -0.02000559800589 |
54 | 2.47 | 2.24000159993278 | 0.229998400067224 |
55 | 2.55 | 2.46998160604954 | 0.0800183939504566 |
56 | 2.89 | 2.54999360058864 | 0.340006399411359 |
57 | 3.21 | 2.88997280824187 | 0.320027191758134 |
58 | 3.21 | 3.20997440606409 | 2.55939359075086e-05 |
59 | 2.92 | 3.20999999795314 | -0.289999997953144 |
60 | 2.68 | 2.92002319253348 | -0.240023192533484 |
61 | 2.4 | 2.68001919567576 | -0.280019195675756 |
62 | 2.28 | 2.40002239432627 | -0.120022394326269 |
63 | 2.24 | 2.28000959870144 | -0.0400095987014444 |
64 | 2.2 | 2.24000319973781 | -0.0400031997378072 |
65 | 2.18 | 2.20000319922606 | -0.0200031992260552 |
66 | 2.23 | 2.18000159974093 | 0.049998400259065 |
67 | 2.24 | 2.22999600141524 | 0.01000399858476 |
68 | 2.25 | 2.23999919993768 | 0.0100008000623233 |
69 | 2.23 | 2.24999920019348 | -0.0199992001934759 |
70 | 2.25 | 2.23000159942112 | 0.0199984005788849 |
71 | 2.23 | 2.24999840064283 | -0.0199984006428333 |
72 | 2.21 | 2.23000159935717 | -0.0200015993571716 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.96968350452383 | 2.45031969470215 |
74 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.87015408005184 | 2.54984911917413 |
75 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.79378064113487 | 2.62622255809111 |
76 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.72939423803701 | 2.69060896118897 |
77 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.67266838295352 | 2.74733481627245 |
78 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.62138412157637 | 2.7986190776496 |
79 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.574223269395 | 2.84577992983097 |
80 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.53032694590038 | 2.88967625332559 |
81 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.48909856547876 | 2.93090463374721 |
82 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.45010375493351 | 2.96989944429246 |
83 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.41301459590898 | 3.00698860331699 |
84 | 2.21000159961299 | 1.37757632741273 | 3.04242687181324 |