Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.743525256436444 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.731293039629427 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.45 | 0.455074786324786 | -0.00507478632478625 |
14 | 0.44 | 0.440782906502641 | -0.000782906502641345 |
15 | 0.42 | 0.419682147725851 | 0.000317852274148767 |
16 | 0.43 | 0.429816497567515 | 0.000183502432484717 |
17 | 0.43 | 0.430267621575371 | -0.000267621575370525 |
18 | 0.47 | 0.4691333234896 | 0.000866676510399511 |
19 | 0.47 | 0.464259071345595 | 0.00574092865440534 |
20 | 0.47 | 0.46759228211023 | 0.00240771788976996 |
21 | 0.47 | 0.470113833153 | -0.000113833152999787 |
22 | 0.48 | 0.490760547310077 | -0.0107605473100766 |
23 | 0.48 | 0.483074493926641 | -0.00307449392664072 |
24 | 0.48 | 0.451103215356108 | 0.0288967846438918 |
25 | 0.49 | 0.461534905454548 | 0.0284650945454519 |
26 | 0.49 | 0.472985751389072 | 0.0170142486109275 |
27 | 0.47 | 0.465324083261032 | 0.0046759167389675 |
28 | 0.5 | 0.478673565687692 | 0.0213264343123079 |
29 | 0.51 | 0.494760381538763 | 0.0152396184612371 |
30 | 0.5 | 0.545368854979175 | -0.0453688549791751 |
31 | 0.49 | 0.50703152336108 | -0.0170315233610805 |
32 | 0.5 | 0.492807669907283 | 0.00719233009271703 |
33 | 0.51 | 0.498413763403498 | 0.0115862365965022 |
34 | 0.51 | 0.525762896433451 | -0.0157628964334511 |
35 | 0.5 | 0.515799052433075 | -0.0157990524330747 |
36 | 0.53 | 0.480363218530423 | 0.0496367814695773 |
37 | 0.5 | 0.506134653071591 | -0.00613465307159133 |
38 | 0.49 | 0.489712012794005 | 0.000287987205995321 |
39 | 0.46 | 0.467299791612783 | -0.0072997916127831 |
40 | 0.46 | 0.474867973434887 | -0.0148679734348867 |
41 | 0.47 | 0.462901700790999 | 0.00709829920900079 |
42 | 0.49 | 0.496089281878062 | -0.0060892818780624 |
43 | 0.5 | 0.492272203686674 | 0.00772779631332604 |
44 | 0.5 | 0.501000911968088 | -0.00100091196808794 |
45 | 0.51 | 0.501339236232005 | 0.00866076376799463 |
46 | 0.5 | 0.521383652306262 | -0.0213836523062618 |
47 | 0.52 | 0.507233853000166 | 0.0127661469998338 |
48 | 0.5 | 0.505309993213614 | -0.0053099932136137 |
49 | 0.48 | 0.47976672343367 | 0.000233276566329987 |
50 | 0.47 | 0.469283418489458 | 0.000716581510541714 |
51 | 0.43 | 0.445766717900573 | -0.0157667179005734 |
52 | 0.42 | 0.445620051662781 | -0.025620051662781 |
53 | 0.45 | 0.429779291741038 | 0.0202207082589616 |
54 | 0.5 | 0.470250276479454 | 0.0297497235205462 |
55 | 0.52 | 0.495671910210601 | 0.0243280897893986 |
56 | 0.52 | 0.515106215187458 | 0.00489378481254177 |
57 | 0.51 | 0.521639521846696 | -0.0116395218466958 |
58 | 0.52 | 0.520955086410585 | -0.000955086410585282 |
59 | 0.52 | 0.528399516511634 | -0.0083995165116344 |
60 | 0.51 | 0.507348123107526 | 0.00265187689247448 |
61 | 0.51 | 0.488764390513189 | 0.0212356094868111 |
62 | 0.51 | 0.49398749834232 | 0.01601250165768 |
63 | 0.48 | 0.478752122821226 | 0.00124787717877356 |
64 | 0.49 | 0.48940816425968 | 0.000591835740320235 |
65 | 0.47 | 0.501654414820596 | -0.0316544148205956 |
66 | 0.51 | 0.505342180269379 | 0.00465781973062096 |
67 | 0.5 | 0.511090477965116 | -0.0110904779651155 |
68 | 0.51 | 0.500545120110863 | 0.00945487988913685 |
69 | 0.51 | 0.507368759005331 | 0.00263124099466938 |
70 | 0.52 | 0.519298949593338 | 0.000701050406662462 |
71 | 0.51 | 0.526578495374992 | -0.0165784953749918 |
72 | 0.52 | 0.501518604011113 | 0.0184813959888869 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.498190050000405 | 0.466961508457288 | 0.529418591543522 |
74 | 0.486644309164547 | 0.447729614123131 | 0.525559004205963 |
75 | 0.456734007927945 | 0.411418611279315 | 0.502049404576575 |
76 | 0.466339175219133 | 0.415421429229362 | 0.517256921208905 |
77 | 0.472097332414903 | 0.416135304753862 | 0.528059360075944 |
78 | 0.506131611922414 | 0.445543822532213 | 0.566719401312615 |
79 | 0.505462980721382 | 0.440578376180339 | 0.570347585262426 |
80 | 0.507017123570989 | 0.438103093143914 | 0.575931153998064 |
81 | 0.505530991078237 | 0.432810462525702 | 0.578251519630772 |
82 | 0.515142764468613 | 0.43880530999038 | 0.591480218946846 |
83 | 0.518660141152956 | 0.438869548728331 | 0.59845073357758 |
84 | 0.512502549748499 | 0.429402186796652 | 0.595602912700346 |