Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.965791163757207 |
beta | 0.181749560390545 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.11 | 2.1 | 0.00999999999999979 |
4 | 2.12 | 2.11141323283199 | 0.00858676716800888 |
5 | 2.13 | 2.12296883132267 | 0.00703116867733078 |
6 | 2.13 | 2.13425624247678 | -0.00425624247678202 |
7 | 2.13 | 2.13389526441375 | -0.00389526441374954 |
8 | 2.13 | 2.13319917175597 | -0.00319917175597162 |
9 | 2.14 | 2.13261380183745 | 0.00738619816255248 |
10 | 2.15 | 2.14354820366943 | 0.00645179633057325 |
11 | 2.16 | 2.1547126659528 | 0.00528733404720505 |
12 | 2.17 | 2.16568059780386 | 0.0043194021961388 |
13 | 2.16 | 2.17647190344826 | -0.0164719034482586 |
14 | 2.2 | 2.16429180169481 | 0.0357081983051941 |
15 | 2.19 | 2.20877471686875 | -0.0187747168687538 |
16 | 2.2 | 2.19734294814807 | 0.00265705185192555 |
17 | 2.2 | 2.20707619022455 | -0.0070761902245513 |
18 | 2.2 | 2.20616705444117 | -0.00616705444116672 |
19 | 2.21 | 2.20505343782726 | 0.0049465621727407 |
20 | 2.22 | 2.21554153447858 | 0.00445846552141926 |
21 | 2.25 | 2.22634083559943 | 0.0236591644005695 |
22 | 2.33 | 2.25983694530718 | 0.0701630546928165 |
23 | 2.33 | 2.35056197103627 | -0.0205619710362748 |
24 | 2.35 | 2.35005628222866 | -5.62822286629405e-05 |
25 | 2.37 | 2.36934492713931 | 0.000655072860686445 |
26 | 2.38 | 2.38943557883718 | -0.00943557883717716 |
27 | 2.38 | 2.39812452113724 | -0.0181245211372407 |
28 | 2.41 | 2.39524032413242 | 0.0147596758675839 |
29 | 2.41 | 2.42670619120942 | -0.0167061912094155 |
30 | 2.41 | 2.4248501287527 | -0.0148501287526992 |
31 | 2.41 | 2.42217996044211 | -0.012179960442114 |
32 | 2.42 | 2.41995064282051 | 4.93571794866199e-05 |
33 | 2.42 | 2.42954095586696 | -0.00954095586695969 |
34 | 2.43 | 2.42819428511065 | 0.00180571488934733 |
35 | 2.44 | 2.43812308967049 | 0.00187691032951465 |
36 | 2.44 | 2.44845011220547 | -0.00845011220547276 |
37 | 2.43 | 2.4473201215233 | -0.0173201215232992 |
38 | 2.44 | 2.43458331657955 | 0.0054166834204521 |
39 | 2.44 | 2.44475631886368 | -0.00475631886368078 |
40 | 2.44 | 2.44426943870203 | -0.00426943870203278 |
41 | 2.44 | 2.44350335947412 | -0.00350335947411784 |
42 | 2.44 | 2.4428622006816 | -0.00286220068160192 |
43 | 2.43 | 2.44233785923355 | -0.0123378592335532 |
44 | 2.42 | 2.43049631990461 | -0.0104963199046084 |
45 | 2.43 | 2.41859088170807 | 0.0114091182919274 |
46 | 2.43 | 2.42984418887473 | 0.000155811125273519 |
47 | 2.43 | 2.43025650127383 | -0.000256501273832477 |
48 | 2.43 | 2.43022558178894 | -0.000225581788939166 |
49 | 2.43 | 2.43018492721982 | -0.00018492721982355 |
50 | 2.44 | 2.43015107580749 | 0.00984892419251171 |
51 | 2.43 | 2.44153663196537 | -0.0115366319653729 |
52 | 2.43 | 2.43024315749384 | -0.000243157493835966 |
53 | 2.44 | 2.42981413892478 | 0.0101858610752239 |
54 | 2.43 | 2.44124532011925 | -0.0112453201192491 |
55 | 2.43 | 2.43000454101289 | -4.54101288527298e-06 |
56 | 2.44 | 2.42961920994758 | 0.0103807900524213 |
57 | 2.46 | 2.44108610193722 | 0.0189138980627783 |
58 | 2.48 | 2.46411419085652 | 0.0158858091434788 |
59 | 2.49 | 2.4870062480025 | 0.00299375199750473 |
60 | 2.5 | 2.49797276990744 | 0.00202723009255923 |
61 | 2.53 | 2.50836167749175 | 0.0216383225082448 |
62 | 2.55 | 2.54148902545381 | 0.00851097454619465 |
63 | 2.57 | 2.56343204615115 | 0.00656795384884878 |
64 | 2.56 | 2.58465140148749 | -0.0246514014874881 |
65 | 2.56 | 2.57139226655148 | -0.0113922665514816 |
66 | 2.57 | 2.56893897828271 | 0.00106102171729416 |
67 | 2.56 | 2.57869920917445 | -0.0186992091744451 |
68 | 2.57 | 2.56609287185886 | 0.00390712814113758 |
69 | 2.58 | 2.57600536185113 | 0.00399463814887113 |
70 | 2.58 | 2.58670355553628 | -0.00670355553627955 |
71 | 2.58 | 2.58589283898107 | -0.00589283898106885 |
72 | 2.59 | 2.58483072279532 | 0.00516927720468452 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 2.59535967485794 | 2.56786705368526 | 2.62285229603062 |
74 | 2.60089618467327 | 2.55917782976554 | 2.642614539581 |
75 | 2.60643269448859 | 2.55119559864244 | 2.66166979033475 |
76 | 2.61196920430392 | 2.54316100341985 | 2.68077740518799 |
77 | 2.61750571411925 | 2.53481778382472 | 2.70019364441379 |
78 | 2.62304222393458 | 2.52605825564074 | 2.72002619222842 |
79 | 2.62857873374991 | 2.51683377948435 | 2.74032368801546 |
80 | 2.63411524356523 | 2.50712309681673 | 2.76110739031374 |
81 | 2.63965175338056 | 2.49691885903591 | 2.78238464772521 |
82 | 2.64518826319589 | 2.48622117979036 | 2.80415534660142 |
83 | 2.65072477301122 | 2.47503428892855 | 2.82641525709389 |
84 | 2.65626128282655 | 2.46336469310486 | 2.84915787254823 |