Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.875400024974026 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 15.92 | 15.7113177140969 | 0.208682285903068 |
14 | 16.02 | 15.9922536351487 | 0.0277463648512963 |
15 | 16.1 | 16.0982286466265 | 0.00177135337345646 |
16 | 16.13 | 16.1331456193546 | -0.00314561935457291 |
17 | 16.21 | 16.2104184985029 | -0.000418498502913422 |
18 | 16.25 | 16.2471456833091 | 0.00285431669093583 |
19 | 16.27 | 16.2099309795966 | 0.0600690204033683 |
20 | 16.21 | 16.2773936674675 | -0.0673936674675026 |
21 | 16.21 | 16.2320554895922 | -0.0220554895921765 |
22 | 16.24 | 16.2763933413951 | -0.0363933413950939 |
23 | 16.32 | 16.213080566767 | 0.106919433233038 |
24 | 16.32 | 16.3434474441589 | -0.023447444158883 |
25 | 16.36 | 16.3748842060348 | -0.0148842060348287 |
26 | 16.48 | 16.4387011347449 | 0.0412988652550759 |
27 | 16.54 | 16.5545459289014 | -0.0145459289013772 |
28 | 16.58 | 16.5745129841537 | 0.00548701584634159 |
29 | 16.56 | 16.6609523904799 | -0.100952390479915 |
30 | 16.55 | 16.6101405751483 | -0.0601405751483313 |
31 | 16.58 | 16.5236122436182 | 0.0563877563817634 |
32 | 16.53 | 16.5712769388902 | -0.0412769388902348 |
33 | 16.6 | 16.5541416406347 | 0.0458583593653117 |
34 | 16.46 | 16.6567819810659 | -0.196781981065872 |
35 | 16.48 | 16.4701200518171 | 0.0098799481828955 |
36 | 16.48 | 16.4991555437033 | -0.019155543703345 |
37 | 16.49 | 16.5355992630508 | -0.0455992630507929 |
38 | 16.54 | 16.5799256240661 | -0.0399256240661288 |
39 | 16.67 | 16.6178568412306 | 0.0521431587694359 |
40 | 16.72 | 16.6987032277931 | 0.0212967722069131 |
41 | 16.79 | 16.7859309817686 | 0.00406901823141226 |
42 | 16.86 | 16.8322250009406 | 0.0277749990593783 |
43 | 16.84 | 16.8361554631846 | 0.00384453681535746 |
44 | 16.86 | 16.8248853920712 | 0.0351146079287759 |
45 | 16.96 | 16.8853737392801 | 0.0746262607198638 |
46 | 17.01 | 16.9826546762617 | 0.0273453237383343 |
47 | 17.02 | 17.0171746101682 | 0.00282538983181979 |
48 | 17.04 | 17.0358349275251 | 0.0041650724749438 |
49 | 17.04 | 17.0899081166026 | -0.0499081166025626 |
50 | 17.39 | 17.1328570577873 | 0.257142942212674 |
51 | 17.54 | 17.4447507237595 | 0.0952492762404802 |
52 | 17.57 | 17.559313865523 | 0.0106861344769982 |
53 | 17.58 | 17.6367143109081 | -0.0567143109081343 |
54 | 17.56 | 17.6332647738813 | -0.0732647738812595 |
55 | 17.63 | 17.5433225463266 | 0.0866774536734027 |
56 | 17.67 | 17.6063558665579 | 0.0636441334420539 |
57 | 17.71 | 17.696709476733 | 0.0132905232669991 |
58 | 17.75 | 17.734026290536 | 0.0159737094639993 |
59 | 17.82 | 17.7543661211283 | 0.0656338788716511 |
60 | 17.86 | 17.8273334368035 | 0.0326665631964858 |
61 | 17.89 | 17.9000436508077 | -0.0100436508077024 |
62 | 17.96 | 18.0202200991569 | -0.0602200991568935 |
63 | 18 | 18.0351230629853 | -0.0351230629853418 |
64 | 18.08 | 18.0246489618185 | 0.0553510381814846 |
65 | 18 | 18.1334435102797 | -0.133443510279744 |
66 | 18.02 | 18.0609616630024 | -0.0409616630024274 |
67 | 18.01 | 18.0181043168846 | -0.00810431688463353 |
68 | 18.02 | 17.9941831425403 | 0.0258168574597484 |
69 | 17.95 | 18.0450257744868 | -0.0950257744867855 |
70 | 17.96 | 17.9877338065294 | -0.0277338065293975 |
71 | 18 | 17.9757088470864 | 0.0242911529136229 |
72 | 18.01 | 18.0081413729428 | 0.00185862705722784 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 18.0485961978786 | 17.9124641990228 | 18.1847281967345 |
74 | 18.1720714160893 | 17.990760817672 | 18.3533820145066 |
75 | 18.2432360393504 | 18.0260043014515 | 18.4604677772492 |
76 | 18.2747202465674 | 18.0269785400493 | 18.5224619530855 |
77 | 18.3114503817227 | 18.0365139829842 | 18.5863867804611 |
78 | 18.3676630494695 | 18.0677320345603 | 18.6675940643786 |
79 | 18.3640319911192 | 18.0418468796064 | 18.686217102632 |
80 | 18.350500147 | 18.0077406456968 | 18.6932596483031 |
81 | 18.3632380415143 | 18.0007235968642 | 18.7257524861643 |
82 | 18.3975052044972 | 18.0159107859062 | 18.7790996230882 |
83 | 18.4158525900093 | 18.0163935637467 | 18.8153116162719 |
84 | 18.4236226419292 | 14.4862480000885 | 22.3609972837699 |