Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999924023649956 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 0 |
3 | 2.45 | 2.25 | 0.2 |
4 | 2.5 | 2.44998480472999 | 0.0500151952700087 |
5 | 2.5 | 2.49999620002802 | 3.79997198329818e-06 |
6 | 2.64 | 2.49999999971129 | 0.140000000288708 |
7 | 2.75 | 2.63998936331097 | 0.110010636689028 |
8 | 2.93 | 2.74999164179336 | 0.180008358206642 |
9 | 3 | 2.92998632362197 | 0.0700136763780339 |
10 | 3.17 | 2.99999468061642 | 0.170005319383584 |
11 | 3.25 | 3.16998708361635 | 0.0800129163836547 |
12 | 3.39 | 3.24999392091066 | 0.140006079089343 |
13 | 3.5 | 3.38998936284913 | 0.110010637150873 |
14 | 3.5 | 3.49999164179332 | 8.35820667655085e-06 |
15 | 3.65 | 3.49999999936497 | 0.150000000635026 |
16 | 3.75 | 3.64998860354744 | 0.100011396452555 |
17 | 3.75 | 3.74999240149913 | 7.59850086540226e-06 |
18 | 3.9 | 3.74999999942269 | 0.150000000577306 |
19 | 4 | 3.89998860354745 | 0.100011396452551 |
20 | 4 | 3.99999240149913 | 7.59850086540226e-06 |
21 | 4 | 3.99999999942269 | 5.77306202842465e-10 |
22 | 4 | 3.99999999999996 | 4.39648317751562e-14 |
23 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
24 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
25 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
26 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
27 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
28 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
29 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
30 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
31 | 4.18 | 4 | 0.18 |
32 | 4.25 | 4.17998632425699 | 0.0700136757430085 |
33 | 4.25 | 4.24999468061646 | 5.31938353631745e-06 |
34 | 3.97 | 4.24999999959585 | -0.279999999595853 |
35 | 3.42 | 3.97002127337798 | -0.550021273377982 |
36 | 2.75 | 3.4200417886088 | -0.670041788608798 |
37 | 2.31 | 2.75005090732948 | -0.440050907329475 |
38 | 2 | 2.31003343346177 | -0.310033433461772 |
39 | 1.66 | 2.00002355520867 | -0.340023555208666 |
40 | 1.31 | 1.66002583374865 | -0.350025833748653 |
41 | 1.09 | 1.31002659368527 | -0.220026593685269 |
42 | 1 | 1.0900167168175 | -0.0900167168175008 |
43 | 1 | 1.00000683914159 | -6.83914158661203e-06 |
44 | 1 | 1.00000000051961 | -5.19613019278609e-10 |
45 | 1 | 1.00000000000004 | -3.95239396766556e-14 |
46 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
47 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
48 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
49 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
50 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
51 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
52 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
53 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
54 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
55 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
56 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
57 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
58 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
59 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
60 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
61 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
62 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
63 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
64 | 1.14 | 1 | 0.14 |
65 | 1.25 | 1.13998936331099 | 0.110010636689006 |
66 | 1.25 | 1.24999164179336 | 8.35820664168985e-06 |
67 | 1.4 | 1.24999999936497 | 0.150000000635026 |
68 | 1.5 | 1.39998860354745 | 0.100011396452555 |
69 | 1.5 | 1.49999240149913 | 7.59850086518021e-06 |
70 | 1.5 | 1.49999999942269 | 5.7730642488707e-10 |
71 | 1.32 | 1.49999999999996 | -0.179999999999956 |
72 | 1.11 | 1.32001367574301 | -0.210013675743008 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.79419658481922 | 1.42583532732586 |
74 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.663396884551653 | 1.55663502759343 |
75 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.563028465508528 | 1.65700344663656 |
76 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.47841320542871 | 1.74161870671637 |
77 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.403865296221408 | 1.81616661592368 |
78 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.336468624491902 | 1.88356328765318 |
79 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.2744908553228 | 1.94554105682228 |
80 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.216803263725304 | 2.00322864841978 |
81 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.16262182818408 | 2.057410083961 |
82 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.111375703857122 | 2.10865620828796 |
83 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.0626339469029107 | 2.15739796524217 |
84 | 1.11001595607254 | 0.0160617555140585 | 2.20397015663103 |