Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.899590659914601 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.775769860282962 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.34 | 0.335488782051282 | 0.00451121794871812 |
14 | 0.34 | 0.339647556058312 | 0.000352443941687763 |
15 | 0.35 | 0.350065135811922 | -6.51358119224676e-05 |
16 | 0.35 | 0.349690398052749 | 0.000309601947251159 |
17 | 0.35 | 0.349236104214978 | 0.000763895785021562 |
18 | 0.35 | 0.34835715553719 | 0.00164284446281027 |
19 | 0.35 | 0.351602234213817 | -0.0016022342138175 |
20 | 0.35 | 0.351094737088929 | -0.00109473708892943 |
21 | 0.35 | 0.350627112970858 | -0.000627112970857546 |
22 | 0.36 | 0.350163492475087 | 0.00983650752491277 |
23 | 0.36 | 0.359112847246203 | 0.000887152753797082 |
24 | 0.38 | 0.360011446052961 | 0.0199885539470393 |
25 | 0.38 | 0.378444886210174 | 0.00155511378982581 |
26 | 0.39 | 0.379620430739015 | 0.0103795692609849 |
27 | 0.39 | 0.399025791592951 | -0.00902579159295053 |
28 | 0.39 | 0.390619321611724 | -0.000619321611724233 |
29 | 0.4 | 0.38936476382592 | 0.0106352361740801 |
30 | 0.4 | 0.397434446065668 | 0.002565553934332 |
31 | 0.4 | 0.401256811654791 | -0.00125681165479063 |
32 | 0.4 | 0.401099584692684 | -0.00109958469268395 |
33 | 0.4 | 0.400664025080995 | -0.000664025080995001 |
34 | 0.4 | 0.400982257698126 | -0.000982257698125932 |
35 | 0.4 | 0.399502046452018 | 0.000497953547981822 |
36 | 0.4 | 0.401538420142508 | -0.00153842014250788 |
37 | 0.4 | 0.39917053113587 | 0.000829468864129934 |
38 | 0.4 | 0.400380669164427 | -0.000380669164426917 |
39 | 0.4 | 0.408594648380412 | -0.00859464838041218 |
40 | 0.4 | 0.401230848916206 | -0.00123084891620556 |
41 | 0.4 | 0.400302835477587 | -0.000302835477587471 |
42 | 0.4 | 0.397904146438193 | 0.00209585356180697 |
43 | 0.4 | 0.401006232550992 | -0.00100623255099247 |
44 | 0.4 | 0.401086671332079 | -0.00108667133207868 |
45 | 0.4 | 0.400696656174455 | -0.000696656174455412 |
46 | 0.4 | 0.400960745581448 | -0.000960745581448319 |
47 | 0.39 | 0.399615186808296 | -0.00961518680829626 |
48 | 0.39 | 0.392395251500536 | -0.00239525150053549 |
49 | 0.4 | 0.389441010631396 | 0.0105589893686042 |
50 | 0.4 | 0.399309471286482 | 0.000690528713517824 |
51 | 0.4 | 0.407847265978013 | -0.00784726597801289 |
52 | 0.4 | 0.401729404512311 | -0.00172940451231129 |
53 | 0.4 | 0.400425182295652 | -0.000425182295651971 |
54 | 0.4 | 0.398103275980133 | 0.00189672401986657 |
55 | 0.4 | 0.400784591446934 | -0.000784591446933547 |
56 | 0.4 | 0.401058150753255 | -0.00105815075325527 |
57 | 0.4 | 0.400724172493147 | -0.000724172493147379 |
58 | 0.4 | 0.400942937354045 | -0.00094293735404466 |
59 | 0.4 | 0.398939264979956 | 0.00106073502004378 |
60 | 0.4 | 0.401885682772621 | -0.00188568277262086 |
61 | 0.4 | 0.40039890980174 | -0.000398909801740011 |
62 | 0.4 | 0.399641047510336 | 0.000358952489664499 |
63 | 0.41 | 0.407215511740039 | 0.00278448825996069 |
64 | 0.41 | 0.411138425088324 | -0.00113842508832379 |
65 | 0.41 | 0.410467434230957 | -0.000467434230956576 |
66 | 0.41 | 0.408288382292816 | 0.00171161770718381 |
67 | 0.41 | 0.410594318015481 | -0.000594318015480599 |
68 | 0.41 | 0.411017736747313 | -0.0010177367473127 |
69 | 0.42 | 0.410746129632331 | 0.00925387036766889 |
70 | 0.42 | 0.419924008066898 | 7.59919331022041e-05 |
71 | 0.42 | 0.418993030099988 | 0.00100696990001226 |
72 | 0.42 | 0.421661571435033 | -0.00166157143503343 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.420492218426476 | 0.411285744080463 | 0.429698692772488 |
74 | 0.420152245001232 | 0.407768721265827 | 0.432535768736637 |
75 | 0.427592734916304 | 0.412694944800758 | 0.442490525031851 |
76 | 0.428705175103624 | 0.411660039711131 | 0.445750310496118 |
77 | 0.429110567346723 | 0.410159864700911 | 0.448061269992534 |
78 | 0.427521751124643 | 0.406840319332053 | 0.448203182917232 |
79 | 0.428108311742818 | 0.405830203402722 | 0.450386420082914 |
80 | 0.429033391403167 | 0.405265627489946 | 0.452801155316388 |
81 | 0.43047743286882 | 0.405308025016108 | 0.455646840721532 |
82 | 0.43061570933622 | 0.404118698525986 | 0.457112720146455 |
83 | 0.429688887836293 | 0.401927690598075 | 0.457450085074512 |
84 | 0.431243703655431 | 0.402273433337038 | 0.460213973973825 |