| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.599546669115242 |
| beta | 0.000254057295288893 |
| gamma | 0.204732865941466 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 50 | 47.7900641025641 | 2.2099358974359 |
| 14 | 59 | 57.7368639210128 | 1.26313607898717 |
| 15 | 63 | 61.7412054618753 | 1.25879453812473 |
| 16 | 32 | 31.0764691182916 | 0.923530881708373 |
| 17 | 39 | 37.2525339043847 | 1.74746609561532 |
| 18 | 47 | 43.9228524761891 | 3.07714752381089 |
| 19 | 53 | 57.5575124945842 | -4.55751249458423 |
| 20 | 60 | 45.6558099991093 | 14.3441900008907 |
| 21 | 57 | 57.9220785043564 | -0.922078504356406 |
| 22 | 52 | 54.2020327938655 | -2.20203279386551 |
| 23 | 70 | 48.4225926739281 | 21.5774073260719 |
| 24 | 90 | 82.1949899915244 | 7.80501000847562 |
| 25 | 74 | 88.3508982697864 | -14.3508982697864 |
| 26 | 62 | 88.2956449523492 | -26.2956449523492 |
| 27 | 55 | 75.7772215610825 | -20.7772215610825 |
| 28 | 84 | 31.8703881295745 | 52.1296118704255 |
| 29 | 94 | 68.8192488753996 | 25.1807511246004 |
| 30 | 70 | 89.6563095245492 | -19.6563095245492 |
| 31 | 108 | 89.0401823195021 | 18.9598176804979 |
| 32 | 139 | 92.7963892707937 | 46.2036107292063 |
| 33 | 120 | 122.925598790003 | -2.92559879000314 |
| 34 | 97 | 117.912456798865 | -20.9124567988647 |
| 35 | 126 | 102.875020425461 | 23.1249795745388 |
| 36 | 149 | 136.456548020255 | 12.5434519797453 |
| 37 | 158 | 143.648053466898 | 14.3519465331021 |
| 38 | 124 | 159.837719074198 | -35.8377190741984 |
| 39 | 140 | 142.064882144718 | -2.06488214471773 |
| 40 | 109 | 115.371228310816 | -6.37122831081633 |
| 41 | 114 | 115.044688453576 | -1.04468845357644 |
| 42 | 77 | 116.486381579579 | -39.4863815795786 |
| 43 | 120 | 107.148177210221 | 12.8518227897786 |
| 44 | 133 | 109.476030577751 | 23.5239694222494 |
| 45 | 110 | 121.976442768546 | -11.9764427685463 |
| 46 | 92 | 110.057460400238 | -18.0574604002376 |
| 47 | 97 | 100.337846662489 | -3.33784666248906 |
| 48 | 78 | 117.17777509757 | -39.1777750975702 |
| 49 | 99 | 93.4920209941245 | 5.50797900587554 |
| 50 | 107 | 100.246879108661 | 6.75312089133931 |
| 51 | 112 | 110.767035813787 | 1.23296418621307 |
| 52 | 90 | 85.6869361765743 | 4.31306382342572 |
| 53 | 98 | 92.1938583068513 | 5.80614169314875 |
| 54 | 125 | 94.5833370517589 | 30.4166629482411 |
| 55 | 155 | 131.448987863102 | 23.5510121368983 |
| 56 | 190 | 141.070820266843 | 48.9291797331572 |
| 57 | 236 | 165.900525606654 | 70.0994743933463 |
| 58 | 189 | 202.71204890462 | -13.7120489046197 |
| 59 | 174 | 196.825896653984 | -22.8258966539841 |
| 60 | 178 | 199.061873217275 | -21.0618732172751 |
| 61 | 136 | 189.922225967325 | -53.9222259673251 |
| 62 | 161 | 161.160108293423 | -0.160108293422866 |
| 63 | 171 | 167.093954611665 | 3.90604538833495 |
| 64 | 149 | 143.880492466933 | 5.11950753306672 |
| 65 | 184 | 151.004925135348 | 32.9950748646522 |
| 66 | 155 | 171.728895239864 | -16.7288952398636 |
| 67 | 276 | 179.774255417402 | 96.2257445825981 |
| 68 | 224 | 235.06826343194 | -11.0682634319398 |
| 69 | 213 | 225.672858153708 | -12.6728581537078 |
| 70 | 279 | 205.985019020106 | 73.0149809798943 |
| 71 | 268 | 251.359653191444 | 16.640346808556 |
| 72 | 287 | 277.419213255846 | 9.58078674415367 |
| 73 | 238 | 283.978954219307 | -45.9789542193074 |
| 74 | 213 | 264.409918308727 | -51.4099183087268 |
| 75 | 257 | 239.96565383211 | 17.0343461678896 |
| 76 | 293 | 224.739881827 | 68.260118173 |
| 77 | 212 | 272.032254193127 | -60.0322541931271 |
| 78 | 246 | 232.917953652758 | 13.0820463472418 |
| 79 | 353 | 268.114221667872 | 84.8857783321283 |
| 80 | 339 | 307.828224085379 | 31.1717759146207 |
| 81 | 308 | 323.648008876875 | -15.648008876875 |
| 82 | 247 | 309.223043865887 | -62.2230438658873 |
| 83 | 257 | 268.895059198492 | -11.8950591984917 |
| 84 | 322 | 277.263997244251 | 44.7360027557493 |
| 85 | 298 | 300.347637489371 | -2.34763748937092 |
| 86 | 273 | 306.500820501493 | -33.5008205014928 |
| 87 | 312 | 298.416563564185 | 13.5834364358151 |
| 88 | 249 | 285.332277483638 | -36.3322774836376 |
| 89 | 286 | 259.3931962843 | 26.6068037156996 |
| 90 | 279 | 278.225339033695 | 0.774660966304907 |
| 91 | 309 | 311.935716973548 | -2.93571697354838 |
| 92 | 401 | 294.585527624349 | 106.414472375651 |
| 93 | 309 | 351.682403620028 | -42.6824036200276 |
| 94 | 328 | 317.230588644493 | 10.7694113555067 |
| 95 | 353 | 324.80232379372 | 28.1976762062799 |
| 96 | 354 | 361.8689349492 | -7.8689349492002 |
| 97 | 327 | 349.562505184392 | -22.5625051843921 |
| 98 | 324 | 341.047971460211 | -17.0479714602114 |
| 99 | 285 | 346.69688277896 | -61.6968827789595 |
| 100 | 243 | 284.383347293651 | -41.383347293651 |
| 101 | 241 | 260.57246837458 | -19.5724683745803 |
| 102 | 287 | 249.589508882548 | 37.4104911174522 |
| 103 | 355 | 304.955557705735 | 50.0444422942648 |
| 104 | 460 | 328.337676149848 | 131.662323850152 |
| 105 | 364 | 388.354862634688 | -24.3548626346883 |
| 106 | 487 | 369.283249174535 | 117.716750825465 |
| 107 | 452 | 442.429755700577 | 9.57024429942271 |
| 108 | 391 | 465.39453635014 | -74.39453635014 |
| 109 | 500 | 412.01124421332 | 87.9887557866799 |
| 110 | 451 | 470.259310974497 | -19.2593109744974 |
| 111 | 375 | 470.951346323523 | -95.9513463235227 |
| 112 | 372 | 389.790377417692 | -17.7903774176923 |
| 113 | 302 | 381.940655900692 | -79.9406559006916 |
| 114 | 316 | 339.454643045337 | -23.4546430453374 |
| 115 | 398 | 359.374428937741 | 38.6255710622588 |
| 116 | 394 | 382.609601004202 | 11.3903989957981 |
| 117 | 431 | 357.71629693175 | 73.2837030682496 |
| 118 | 431 | 408.835669786626 | 22.1643302133742 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 119 | 415.817223507663 | 337.30404946927 | 494.330397546057 |
| 120 | 426.148482996441 | 334.599331842472 | 517.697634150409 |
| 121 | 430.680888752329 | 327.727977345672 | 533.633800158986 |
| 122 | 427.368903813102 | 314.15016219359 | 540.587645432614 |
| 123 | 433.309207731673 | 310.67645589332 | 555.941959570026 |
| 124 | 416.087348889083 | 284.709164391925 | 547.465533386241 |
| 125 | 413.81474663868 | 274.233980216831 | 553.395513060529 |
| 126 | 423.906532007893 | 276.575336774466 | 571.237727241319 |
| 127 | 463.000333807934 | 308.302887643476 | 617.697779972392 |
| 128 | 460.861045270327 | 299.129023321563 | 622.593067219091 |
| 129 | 434.227585823454 | 265.751110918384 | 602.704060728524 |
| 130 | 437.222263895112 | 262.257904226483 | 612.186623563741 |
