| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.734734057425121 |
| beta | 0.142702409942763 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 561 | 530.131677350427 | 30.8683226495726 |
| 14 | 557 | 551.360094337521 | 5.63990566247935 |
| 15 | 566 | 567.768668786675 | -1.76866878667477 |
| 16 | 588 | 592.63180265231 | -4.63180265230972 |
| 17 | 620 | 625.488991159498 | -5.48899115949826 |
| 18 | 626 | 631.432529238289 | -5.43252923828891 |
| 19 | 620 | 616.764626912627 | 3.23537308737309 |
| 20 | 573 | 566.971217733655 | 6.02878226634539 |
| 21 | 573 | 587.362329111058 | -14.3623291110579 |
| 22 | 574 | 593.515530402651 | -19.5155304026506 |
| 23 | 580 | 583.919661944338 | -3.91966194433837 |
| 24 | 590 | 596.371639225045 | -6.37163922504533 |
| 25 | 593 | 610.083990986987 | -17.0839909869875 |
| 26 | 597 | 582.712164127365 | 14.2878358726349 |
| 27 | 595 | 597.740339829648 | -2.74033982964784 |
| 28 | 612 | 615.259098792603 | -3.25909879260269 |
| 29 | 628 | 643.170439162201 | -15.1704391622009 |
| 30 | 629 | 635.273544031557 | -6.27354403155653 |
| 31 | 621 | 615.456718724912 | 5.54328127508779 |
| 32 | 569 | 561.511684859311 | 7.48831514068922 |
| 33 | 567 | 571.130807186164 | -4.13080718616413 |
| 34 | 573 | 578.071955007427 | -5.07195500742739 |
| 35 | 584 | 579.377178384431 | 4.6228216155688 |
| 36 | 589 | 594.502700597183 | -5.50270059718275 |
| 37 | 591 | 603.150493221517 | -12.1504932215174 |
| 38 | 595 | 585.381245516342 | 9.61875448365765 |
| 39 | 594 | 589.628240786303 | 4.37175921369737 |
| 40 | 611 | 610.146931451026 | 0.853068548974306 |
| 41 | 613 | 636.263141526003 | -23.2631415260031 |
| 42 | 611 | 622.274992612593 | -11.2749926125929 |
| 43 | 594 | 598.888327503318 | -4.88832750331767 |
| 44 | 543 | 533.671343477078 | 9.32865652292151 |
| 45 | 537 | 537.629983403085 | -0.629983403085134 |
| 46 | 544 | 543.330220261763 | 0.66977973823748 |
| 47 | 555 | 548.464366048679 | 6.53563395132142 |
| 48 | 561 | 559.548475881906 | 1.45152411809431 |
| 49 | 562 | 569.510615499669 | -7.51061549966926 |
| 50 | 555 | 559.379841606558 | -4.37984160655787 |
| 51 | 547 | 548.936770751122 | -1.93677075112237 |
| 52 | 565 | 560.212570354139 | 4.78742964586081 |
| 53 | 578 | 579.560381029761 | -1.56038102976072 |
| 54 | 580 | 583.711635711501 | -3.71163571150146 |
| 55 | 569 | 567.382795212863 | 1.61720478713744 |
| 56 | 507 | 511.205627092877 | -4.20562709287708 |
| 57 | 501 | 501.648131090781 | -0.64813109078068 |
| 58 | 509 | 506.747565559484 | 2.25243444051614 |
| 59 | 510 | 513.834240131302 | -3.83424013130184 |
| 60 | 517 | 514.097032361868 | 2.9029676381316 |
| 61 | 519 | 521.046851212768 | -2.04685121276782 |
| 62 | 512 | 514.632449880433 | -2.63244988043255 |
| 63 | 509 | 505.175992988812 | 3.82400701118792 |
| 64 | 519 | 522.12682369923 | -3.12682369923027 |
| 65 | 523 | 532.80479888025 | -9.80479888025047 |
| 66 | 525 | 528.292424975549 | -3.29242497554924 |
| 67 | 517 | 511.69358691405 | 5.30641308594971 |
| 68 | 456 | 455.077648218227 | 0.922351781773216 |
| 69 | 455 | 449.164436873886 | 5.83556312611358 |
| 70 | 461 | 459.409789404248 | 1.59021059575213 |
| 71 | 470 | 463.938590891129 | 6.06140910887052 |
| 72 | 475 | 473.840020407644 | 1.15997959235608 |
| 73 | 476 | 478.594253846614 | -2.59425384661438 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 74 | 471.962989156681 | 455.700777404298 | 488.225200909063 |
| 75 | 466.770040302079 | 445.536183463234 | 488.003897140924 |
| 76 | 479.283162784497 | 453.077034079391 | 505.489291489602 |
| 77 | 491.030663280919 | 459.758830191115 | 522.302496370723 |
| 78 | 497.02131757189 | 460.549544063243 | 533.493091080536 |
| 79 | 487.039317914384 | 445.213920925639 | 528.864714903129 |
| 80 | 426.722068906098 | 379.380092253806 | 474.06404555839 |
| 81 | 422.69820915642 | 369.67272923916 | 475.723689073679 |
| 82 | 428.181705502686 | 369.304760677536 | 487.058650327836 |
| 83 | 433.213329113393 | 368.317592850061 | 498.109065376724 |
| 84 | 437.210671354043 | 366.130421794456 | 508.290920913631 |
| 85 | 439.84475484957 | 362.416433117962 | 517.273076581177 |
