Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[51])
4720.4-------
4820.91-------
4921.95-------
5021.83-------
5122.27-------
5221.9922.11920.453223.92040.44420.43470.90580.4347
5321.6621.959619.781524.37750.40410.49020.50310.4007
5420.3221.961519.364324.90710.13740.57950.53490.4187
5520.6221.88718.950525.27850.2320.81740.41240.4124
5620.2821.895718.74925.57060.19440.75190.47990.4209
5720.7921.894718.545625.84860.2920.78830.54630.4262
5822.8621.894818.358626.11210.32690.69620.76790.4308
5922.5921.894818.183426.36380.38020.3360.7120.4346
6023.2921.894818.018326.60530.28080.38620.74920.438
6121.8721.894817.862126.8380.49610.29010.66930.4409
6221.5221.894817.713527.06310.44350.50380.35720.4434
632221.894817.571727.28150.48470.55420.40020.4457


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPESq.EMSERMSE
520.0416-0.005800.016600
530.0562-0.01360.00970.08980.05320.2306
540.0684-0.07470.03142.69450.93360.9663
550.0791-0.05790.0381.60531.10161.0496
560.0856-0.07380.04522.61051.40341.1846
570.0921-0.05050.04611.22041.37291.1717
580.09830.04410.04580.93161.30981.1445
590.10410.03180.0440.48331.20651.0984
600.10980.06370.04621.94661.28871.1352
610.1152-0.00110.04176e-041.15991.077
620.1204-0.01710.03950.14051.06721.0331
630.12550.00480.03660.01110.97920.9896