Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.050569900667479 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 79.86 | 79.89 | -0.0300000000000011 |
4 | 79.87 | 80.05848290298 | -0.18848290297997 |
5 | 79.83 | 80.0589513412988 | -0.228951341298767 |
6 | 79.83 | 80.0073732947116 | -0.1773732947116 |
7 | 79.83 | 79.998403544817 | -0.168403544816968 |
8 | 79.37 | 79.9898873942835 | -0.619887394283523 |
9 | 79.53 | 79.4985397503296 | 0.0314602496704168 |
10 | 79.78 | 79.6601306920304 | 0.119869307969608 |
11 | 79.94 | 79.9161924710275 | 0.0238075289724975 |
12 | 79.97 | 80.0773964154028 | -0.107396415402775 |
13 | 79.97 | 80.1019653893438 | -0.131965389343804 |
14 | 79.98 | 80.0952919127132 | -0.115291912713147 |
15 | 80.25 | 80.0994616121395 | 0.150538387860522 |
16 | 80.38 | 80.3770743234602 | 0.0029256765397605 |
17 | 80.13 | 80.5072222746322 | -0.377222274632231 |
18 | 80.15 | 80.2381461816745 | -0.0881461816745031 |
19 | 80.15 | 80.253688638023 | -0.103688638023016 |
20 | 80.18 | 80.2484451138979 | -0.0684451138978517 |
21 | 80.47 | 80.2749838512869 | 0.195016148713137 |
22 | 80.83 | 80.5748457985558 | 0.255154201444157 |
23 | 80.62 | 80.9477489211778 | -0.327748921177758 |
24 | 80.66 | 80.7211746907899 | -0.0611746907899402 |
25 | 80.66 | 80.7580810927533 | -0.0980810927533184 |
26 | 80.67 | 80.7531211416354 | -0.0831211416354165 |
27 | 80.8 | 80.7589177137596 | 0.0410822862404387 |
28 | 81.04 | 80.8909952408939 | 0.149004759106077 |
29 | 81.24 | 81.1385303967609 | 0.101469603239082 |
30 | 81.26 | 81.3436617045175 | -0.0836617045174677 |
31 | 81.26 | 81.3594309404304 | -0.0994309404303522 |
32 | 81.47 | 81.3544027276495 | 0.115597272350485 |
33 | 81.94 | 81.5702484702297 | 0.369751529770284 |
34 | 82.83 | 82.0589467683618 | 0.771053231638163 |
35 | 82.29 | 82.9879388536951 | -0.697938853695121 |
36 | 82.32 | 82.4126441551918 | -0.0926441551917918 |
37 | 82.32 | 82.4379591494663 | -0.117959149466316 |
38 | 82.3 | 82.431993966995 | -0.131993966994983 |
39 | 82.54 | 82.4053190451953 | 0.134680954804665 |
40 | 82.54 | 82.6521298477016 | -0.11212984770161 |
41 | 82.62 | 82.6464594524415 | -0.0264594524414861 |
42 | 82.63 | 82.7251214005598 | -0.0951214005598047 |
43 | 82.63 | 82.7303111207821 | -0.100311120782138 |
44 | 82.63 | 82.7252383973683 | -0.0952383973683482 |
45 | 82.71 | 82.7204222010737 | -0.0104222010736947 |
46 | 83.25 | 82.7998951514007 | 0.450104848599338 |
47 | 83.14 | 83.3626569088843 | -0.222656908884275 |
48 | 83.34 | 83.2413971711191 | 0.098602828880928 |
49 | 83.34 | 83.4463835063811 | -0.106383506381121 |
50 | 83.37 | 83.4410037030308 | -0.0710037030307689 |
51 | 83.33 | 83.4674130528215 | -0.137413052821486 |
52 | 83.26 | 83.4204640883899 | -0.160464088389872 |
53 | 83.66 | 83.3423494353793 | 0.317650564620692 |
54 | 83.64 | 83.7584129928791 | -0.118412992879144 |
55 | 83.64 | 83.7324248595915 | -0.0924248595915032 |
56 | 83.71 | 83.7277509436228 | -0.0177509436227581 |
57 | 83.87 | 83.796853280167 | 0.0731467198330051 |
58 | 84.17 | 83.9605523025231 | 0.20944769747689 |
59 | 84.35 | 84.2711440517795 | 0.0788559482204505 |
60 | 84.44 | 84.4551317892481 | -0.0151317892480876 |
61 | 84.44 | 84.5443665761689 | -0.1043665761689 |
62 | 84.45 | 84.539088768779 | -0.0890887687790212 |
63 | 84.67 | 84.5445835585913 | 0.125416441408717 |
64 | 84.95 | 84.7709258555754 | 0.179074144424604 |
65 | 84.89 | 85.0599816172711 | -0.169981617271063 |
66 | 84.93 | 84.9913856637704 | -0.0613856637703662 |
67 | 84.93 | 85.0282813968511 | -0.0982813968510925 |
68 | 84.93 | 85.0233113163749 | -0.0933113163748658 |
69 | 85.45 | 85.0185925723746 | 0.431407427625359 |
70 | 85.77 | 85.5604088031369 | 0.20959119686313 |
71 | 85.79 | 85.891007809143 | -0.101007809142999 |
72 | 85.9 | 85.905899854268 | -0.00589985426800865 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 86.0156014992237 | 85.5926629407479 | 86.4385400576996 |
74 | 86.1312029984475 | 85.517767525021 | 86.7446384718739 |
75 | 86.2468044976712 | 85.4766142243108 | 87.0169947710316 |
76 | 86.3624059968949 | 85.4511092036651 | 87.2737027901247 |
77 | 86.4780074961186 | 85.434444208955 | 87.5215707832823 |
78 | 86.5936089953424 | 85.4232264024199 | 87.7639915882648 |
79 | 86.7092104945661 | 85.4154987903626 | 88.0029221987696 |
80 | 86.8248119937898 | 85.4100247647728 | 88.2395992228068 |
81 | 86.9404134930136 | 85.4059725221881 | 88.474854463839 |
82 | 87.0560149922373 | 85.4027565635549 | 88.7092734209196 |
83 | 87.171616491461 | 85.3999503800516 | 88.9432826028704 |
84 | 87.2872179906847 | 85.3972348908631 | 89.1772010905064 |